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Analyst forecasts for 2019 EOY S&P 500
Old 12-30-2018, 03:02 PM   #1
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Analyst forecasts for 2019 EOY S&P 500

Just saw this interesting summary of major analyst forecasts for 2019. Interesting that the "worst case" (from Morgan Stanley) is an increase of 16% (!) from current levels. Others (Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, ...) are far more optimistic..

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-...131219152.html

Since both DW and I are ER'ing in early 2019, sure hope they are right..I always planned on dialing back equity exposure in early '19..market meltdown of past couple months (which CONVENIENTLY started literally 30 days after I gave notice to my company) has put a crimp in those plans..would love for things to turn north at least for a bit so that I can still make some needed adjustments to dial down risk a bit..

FWIW!!
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Old 12-30-2018, 03:44 PM   #2
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Many of the predictions were made before the Dec sell off and some of the higher predictions were reduced in the small print.
Let's hope for the best though. Just retired mid 2017 myself.
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Old 12-30-2018, 04:12 PM   #3
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Many of the predictions were made before the Dec sell off and some of the higher predictions were reduced in the small print.
Let's hope for the best though. Just retired mid 2017 myself.

Yes, noticed that..but the estimates are based on 2019 S&P 500 Earnings estimates and reasonable looking PE multiples (eg: 15'ish). Sell-off or not, shouldn't change that part. (My own theory on the sell-off is that it's been accelerated by Algos and "herd mentality"..there is IMHO no valid / justifiable reason for the sell-off IF fundamentals matter worth anything any longer).
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Old 12-31-2018, 07:55 AM   #4
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It would be more interesting to see the predictions from 2017 about 2018.
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Old 12-31-2018, 08:08 AM   #5
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Yes, noticed that..but the estimates are based on 2019 S&P 500 Earnings estimates and reasonable looking PE multiples (eg: 15'ish). Sell-off or not, shouldn't change that part. (My own theory on the sell-off is that it's been accelerated by Algos and "herd mentality"..there is IMHO no valid / justifiable reason for the sell-off IF fundamentals matter worth anything any longer).
I agree with you from that perspective.
The only concern of mine is that even with this net drop, the Cape 10 is still much higher than Mar 2009. So how much upside can we have?
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Analyst forecasts for 2019 EOY S&P 500
Old 01-03-2019, 08:53 PM   #6
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Analyst forecasts for 2019 EOY S&P 500

Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
It would be more interesting to see the predictions from 2017 about 2018.


I seem to recall a lot of them calling for the SP500 ending the year around 3100. That BofA forecast from November was calling for a peak of 3000 and an endpoint of 2900.

Edit:
Actually the 3000 price was for yr end 2018.
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Old 01-04-2019, 06:35 AM   #7
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They usually start with high predictions and then keep adjusting them down during the course of the year, as reality sets in.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:03 AM   #8
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I seem to recall a lot of them calling for the SP500 ending the year around 3100. That BofA forecast from November was calling for a peak of 3000 and an endpoint of 2900.

Edit:
Actually the 3000 price was for yr end 2018.
Yes. In Nov 2018, BoA expected the S&P to climb to 3000 at 2018 year end, then drop to 2900 at 2019 year end.

All these forecasts were made before the market stepped into a hole in December. That shows how "good" these forecasts are.

The earning estimates of companies are more interesting, but even that is perilous, seeing how Apple missed big time.

If forecasting E is tough, forecasting P is even harder, because no one can be sure what P/E the market god will bestow on stocks.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:27 AM   #9
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The earning estimates of companies are more interesting, but even that is perilous, seeing how Apple missed big time.
Agreed, but as I mentioned in another post, I believe Apple's problems are company-specific and not indicative of an "economic slowdown". I don't think we can assume because Apple cut forecasts that means anything more than Apple the company is having issues..

Apple has not come out with a compelling product for several years now, and what they are selling is massively overpriced (ie - XS @ $1K - seriously?) and no longer "cool". DW and I "upgraded" to the XR when we switched from AT&T to T-Mobile (to get the lower cost 55 and over plan) and it's bulky, heavy and feels like a giant step backward over my 6s and her 5. And we paid $750 for two phones on a BOGO deal. THAT is Apple's problem, in a nutshell and IMHO does not tell us much of anything meaningful in terms of "economic slowdown" which I still personally believe is a bunch of hooey that's being hawked at least partly for political reasons and is not tied to reality.

Apple pretty much died with Jobs. There's nothing compelling coming out of Apple nowadays and the glory days of the stock are far behind us IMHO..
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:46 AM   #10
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They usually start with high predictions and then keep adjusting them down during the course of the year, as reality sets in.
Exactly! They are usually super optimistic about earnings.

I donít pay attention to forward multiples.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:49 AM   #11
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Agreed, but as I mentioned in another post, I believe Apple's problems are company-specific and not indicative of an "economic slowdown". I don't think we can assume because Apple cut forecasts that means anything more than Apple the company is having issues..
Hah! After Appleís warning I expect more companies to report disappointing results this month. Chinaís slowdown will affect more companies, and I donít believe thatís the only slowdown either.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:58 AM   #12
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Hah! After Apple’s warning I expect more companies to report disappointing results this month. China’s slowdown will affect more companies, and I don’t believe that’s the only slowdown either.

So you think Apple's coming out with compelling products (compared to say, 3 or 4 years ago) that consumers want to spend $750-1,000 each on?

Guess we will see. I personally believe this is one of the strongest economies of our lifetime (e.g. very strong job numbers just this AM), and all the doom and gloom prognostication is at least partly if not mostly politically motivated.

In the meantime, stocks are looking very attractive at these levels..
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:06 AM   #13
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So you think Apple's coming out with compelling products (compared to say, 3 or 4 years ago) that consumers want to spend $750-1,000 each on?

Guess we will see. I personally believe this is one of the strongest economies of our lifetime (e.g. very strong job numbers just this AM), and all the doom and gloom prognostication is at least partly if not mostly politically motivated.

In the meantime, stocks are looking very attractive at these levels..
I think Apple is a very well run profitable company and their P/E is quite low compared to other tech stocks. They’ve been dissed many times before and pulled out ahead. It’s either a loved or hated stock and these things go in cycles.
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Old 01-04-2019, 03:55 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
It would be more interesting to see the predictions from 2017 about 2018.
I hear ya, people always make predictions but rarely do I see a summary of historical predictions and how things actually turned out.

But here ya go for 2018 predictions... "Here's what 13 Wall Street pros are predicting for the stock market in 2018"

HSBC: 2,650
Citi: 2,675
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 2,800
Canaccord Genuity: 2,800
Goldman Sachs: 2,850
Deutsche Bank: 2,850
Jefferies: 2,855
Credit Suisse: 2,875
BMO Capital Markets: 2,950
Oppenheimer: 3,000
JPMorgan: 3,000
Fundstrat: 3,025
UBS: 3,150
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:01 PM   #15
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Hah! After Appleís warning I expect more companies to report disappointing results this month. Chinaís slowdown will affect more companies, and I donít believe thatís the only slowdown either.
Meh - IMHO Apple just used China as a convenient scapegoat. Has anything really changed since Apple provided their original quarterly estimate? More to the story than China.
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Old 01-04-2019, 04:02 PM   #16
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I hear ya, people always make predictions but rarely do I see a summary of historical predictions and how things actually turned out.

But here ya go for 2018 predictions... "Here's what 13 Wall Street pros are predicting for the stock market in 2018"

HSBC: 2,650
Citi: 2,675
Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 2,800
Canaccord Genuity: 2,800
Goldman Sachs: 2,850
Deutsche Bank: 2,850
Jefferies: 2,855
Credit Suisse: 2,875
BMO Capital Markets: 2,950
Oppenheimer: 3,000
JPMorgan: 3,000
Fundstrat: 3,025
UBS: 3,150
And that's why no one knows nuthin.
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Old 01-05-2019, 09:56 AM   #17
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I think Apple is a very well run profitable company and their P/E is quite low compared to other tech stocks. Theyíve been dissed many times before and pulled out ahead. Itís either a loved or hated stock and these things go in cycles.
I believe the pessimistic forecast is to get it out of the way during these down times. Watch for them to beat estimates in the next quarter.
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