Another prediction for future

[CardsFan]

Every time the title of this thread pops up, the first thing that comes to my mind is:

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Yogi Berra

[ncbill]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle The same guy projected 6% gain for 2017. He was only off by a little...... Nobody knows nuthin!!!

plenty of summaries of predictions over on bogleheads

IIRC, most drastically (2-3x) under-predicted equity performance

[kcowan]

Predictions are a fools game. I run a predictions contest over on Financial Webring Forum. The challenge is to predict the S&P, Gold and Oil 12 months out. Also TSX and C$ because it is Canadian. Been doing this for 10 years. Everybody learns how humbling their convictions about the future are.

2018 Predictions

Results are posted each month.

[GravitySucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maenad I'm fascinated by the different responses I'm seeing in this thread versus a market prediction here in our own community: Sold all my stocks Something else? I'm kinda curious - it seems like a great example of something in human behavior, I'm just not sure what.

Halo effect.
Having desirable traits in one area leads us to believe other desirable traits exist.

Running-Man posts here often and is an upstanding member of this community.
People in this community are better looking and smarter than most.
Ergo Running-Man is better looking and smarter than most. ( probably smells better too.)
Since he is better looking and smarter than most, he probably predicts the future better than most.

Just read that thread... Happy to see He did have a win out of his action.