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Old 06-19-2021, 01:31 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
I guess what I was thinking in that last sentence above is not to have too fixed a mixture of asset classes. Not to be trying too hard to pick longer term winners. For instance, although I allocate about 30% currently to international this allocation is provisional. I would select from these choices (1) international small, (2) international large, or (3) the SP500.

...

I am not suggesting this as everyone's cup of tea. Just as an example of not having too fixed of a world view. Many want a fixed mix (set and forget) and that could work too.
OK thank you for clarifying; that makes a lot of sense! I guess that means I'm also dipping my toes into the 'flexible asset allocation' waters
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Old 06-19-2021, 01:33 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Navigator View Post
Ray Dalio strikes me as a dilettante who has not done his homework. There are professional economists and historians who spend their careers looking at the questions he asks, but he does not refer to any of their previous work. Civilizations fall when they become increasingly complex. These complex societies are then hit with a series of disasters that the system cannot handle. For example, the US has survived the COVID pandemic and the resulting disruption in trade. If the super volcano in Yellowstone had erupted at the same time, it might not have. When one economic power is eclipsed by another, that is not necessarily a bad thing. For example, the US surpassed the UK as the major economic and political world power in the early 20th century. The UK has greatly prospered since then.

Ray Dalio may be smart, but I wish he took into account and the collective knowledge of many other smart people who have studied these questions for their entire careers.
In the book itself, Dalio did say that he ran his ideas past several historians and he made revisions based on their notes. Perhaps he just wasn't talking to the right people!
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Old 06-19-2021, 01:40 PM   #23
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Who says being an empire is the objective of history?
I hope I didn't communicate that impression!

It's more along the lines of Dalio's observations that when an empire falls, it's rarely pretty. I believe he said it was the Netherlands that handled the decline as well as it could be handled, but I could be wrong.

Anyway, he described many cases throughout history where the decline was pretty painful, in economic terms and/or in terms of human suffering (typically a war between the current power and a rising challenger).
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