Anyone else a Tesla investor?

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Christine ... Disrupting the world energy markets as in replacing coal and natural peaker plants with batteries and replacing old polluting car tech with electricity. A really good idea.

Batteries do not replace coal plants. Batteries store (and later deliver) electricity, they do not produce it. Fossil fuel plants produce electricity.

You could replace some peaker plants with batteries (you need a lot of batteries! Do the math.). But remember those batteries need to be filled first - often from fossil fuel plants. And since there are some round-trip losses, it takes even more electrical generation to compensate for that loss, so even more fossil fuel if that is the source.

Yes, the batteries can also store energy from wind/solar to make those more useful, but let's not forget that batteries don't do the producing. And since there are some round-trip losses, it takes even more renewable electrical generation to compensate for that loss.

-ERD50

[triangle]

Whether one thinks electric vehicles will replace hybrids & ICE vehicles in 2 years or 20 years, I do not see how $TSLA merits such a premium today. There is almost no switching cost for the consumer who decides to trade in their old vehicle. Making initial price as well as safety and operating cost of primary concern. With so much competition the margins will get squeezed. Though I don't know if they have a big technical lead with batteries or not.

A few days ago Zerohedge posted a graphic from Bloomberg showing how the market cap of Tesla was nearly half all other global automakers combined. Telsa at ~500 billion vs all the rest at ~1200 billion.

[oneill225]

Quote:

Originally Posted by triangle Whether one thinks electric vehicles will replace hybrids & ICE vehicles in 2 years or 20 years, I do not see how $TSLA merits such a premium today. There is almost no switching cost for the consumer who decides to trade in their old vehicle. Making initial price as well as safety and operating cost of primary concern. With so much competition the margins will get squeezed. Though I don't know if they have a big technical lead with batteries or not. A few days ago Zerohedge posted a graphic from Bloomberg showing how the market cap of Tesla was nearly half all other global automakers combined. Telsa at ~500 billion vs all the rest at ~1200 billion.

I understand your point and I acknowledge that TSLA is not for low risk investors. That being said, Tesla is more than just another car maker. They are the clear leader (by a period of years) in the new, large emerging market for EVs. Tesla is also a leader in battery tech and self-driving software. How much is it worth to be the first maker of an autonomous car that could replace Uber drivers?

I will likely be buying a Tesla next year (Model Y). I am not doing it to save Mother Earth or to look cool. I am buying it because it is a superior car over ICE; faster, cheaper and more functional.

I would compare the transition from ICE to EV to the transition from tube televisions to large flat screens. Initially just for the rich, but once the prices came down no one wanted tube televisions anymore and that market collapsed within a couple of years (although my dad still has one in his basement). We are close to that moment for EVs. When it happens, Tesla will likely be the top recipient of those profits.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 I understand your point and I acknowledge that TSLA is not for low risk investors. That being said, Tesla is more than just another car maker. They are the clear leader (by a period of years) in the new, large emerging market for EVs. Tesla is also a leader in battery tech and self-driving software. How much is it worth to be the first maker of an autonomous car that could replace Uber drivers? I will likely be buying a Tesla next year (Model Y). I am not doing it to save Mother Earth or to look cool. I am buying it because it is a superior car over ICE; faster, cheaper and more functional. I would compare the transition from ICE to EV to the transition from tube televisions to large flat screens. Initially just for the rich, but once the prices came down no one wanted tube televisions anymore and that market collapsed within a couple of years (although my dad still has one in his basement). We are close to that moment for EVs. When it happens, Tesla will likely be the top recipient of those profits.

+1
Enjoy your Y! I bought one at the end of June and love it. I wasn't looking to buy an EV, I had a list of requirements and a Tesla was the only vehicle that satisfied them.

[FIREarly]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 I understand your point and I acknowledge that TSLA is not for low risk investors. That being said, Tesla is more than just another car maker. They are the clear leader (by a period of years) in the new, large emerging market for EVs. Tesla is also a leader in battery tech and self-driving software. How much is it worth to be the first maker of an autonomous car that could replace Uber drivers? I will likely be buying a Tesla next year (Model Y). I am not doing it to save Mother Earth or to look cool. I am buying it because it is a superior car over ICE; faster, cheaper and more functional. I would compare the transition from ICE to EV to the transition from tube televisions to large flat screens. Initially just for the rich, but once the prices came down no one wanted tube televisions anymore and that market collapsed within a couple of years (although my dad still has one in his basement). We are close to that moment for EVs. When it happens, Tesla will likely be the top recipient of those profits.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRG +1 Enjoy your Y! I bought one at the end of June and love it. I wasn't looking to buy an EV, I had a list of requirements and a Tesla was the only vehicle that satisfied them.

+1+1
Enjoy your Tesla Model S, 3, X, or Y. I am enjoying the rise in price of TSLA stocks enough to not get the car just yet. Tesla makes beautiful cars and I do believe they are going to play a major role in helping our ecosystem over time.

Other companies will join the "race" but it might be difficult to keep up with Tesla, the front-runner. Someone just told me that an ICE company (USA brand) is making a conversion kit to make some of their ICE vehicles EV. No research done on this yet but it is another interesting concept to reduce ICE vehicles.

Tesla is in a great place similar to:
Google is to searching the internet
Xerox is to copying
Q-tip is to cotton swabs
Red Cross is to blood donations (hint hint)
Tesla is to EVs

PS When writing this post TSLA is +1.26%

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREarly Tesla is in a great place similar to: Google is to searching the internet Xerox is to copying Q-tip is to cotton swabs Red Cross is to blood donations (hint hint) Tesla is to EVs PS When writing this post TSLA is +1.26%

Kodak is to cameras
Nokia is to phones

[oneill225]

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Originally Posted by Fermion Kodak is to cameras Nokia is to phones

Yes. Early investors in Kodak and Nokia would have made a ton of money over many years.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 Yes. Early investors in Kodak and Nokia would have made a ton of money over many years.

I guess depends on what is considered early. Nokia started going downhill in 2008 or so. Apple and Android ate their lunch. There was still a large amount of the phone market available so it was not lack of a market.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Kodak is to cameras Nokia is to phones

Speaking of cameras, the smartphone camera really knocks out the market for pocket cameras. Surely, serious photographers still pay big bucks for the expensive fancy DSLRs but I don't see that these have high volumes.

Out of curiosity, I just checked and saw that Pentax, Nikon, Canon, Olympus, Leica are still around. They probably will keep on trudging along for a while.

We are now back to EV discussion...

[oneill225]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion I guess depends on what is considered early. Nokia started going downhill in 2008 or so. Apple and Android ate their lunch. There was still a large amount of the phone market available so it was not lack of a market.

We are still in the early stages of TSLA. If you are comparing Tesla to Nokia, who is the "Apple" that will eat their lunch?

[FIREarly]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 We are still in the early stages of TSLA. If you are comparing Tesla to Nokia, who is the "Apple" that will eat their lunch?

TSLA looks like it will be around and in a great position for multiple years to come. If we knew who the "Apple" was that is going to eat their lunch we would be mega-millionaires! Tesla owner is tied with Bill Gates for 2nd wealthiest man... next stop Jeff Bezos!

Wait for it...
Tesla cars driving around on Mars!!
(Tesla owners on Mars need to learn from Matt Damon in The Martian how to create their own food... )

[Fermion]

Look, it may be Tesla but all I am saying is it could be someone else who takes a big chunk of the auto market. Prius sold extremely well, it could be that Toyota comes out with a really solid, dependable and cheap EV that takes off. It doesn't have to steal very much of the EV market for Tesla to be in trouble...Tesla is priced as if no other auto makers exist.

[MRG]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Look, it may be Tesla but all I am saying is it could be someone else who takes a big chunk of the auto market. Prius sold extremely well, it could be that Toyota comes out with a really solid, dependable and cheap EV that takes off. It doesn't have to steal very much of the EV market for Tesla to be in trouble...Tesla is priced as if no other auto makers exist.

There's a lot more to Tesla than cars.

No other automaker has a 20k, and growing, supercharger network. Being able to rapidly recharge is a huge advantage. Despite other EV manufacturers nobody else is doing upgrades to their autos over the air besides Tesla. I received a recent extension to the vehicles range via a software update. Folks who purchased full self driving are getting upgrades to the newest software that's pretty incredible.

[FIREarly]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MRG There's a lot more to Tesla than cars. No other automaker has a 20k, and growing, supercharger network. Being able to rapidly recharge is a huge advantage. Despite other EV manufacturers nobody else is doing upgrades to their autos over the air besides Tesla. I received a recent extension to the vehicles range via a software update. Folks who purchased full self driving are getting upgrades to the newest software that's pretty incredible.

The fact that Tesla provides free over the air updates to all of its cars is amazing! I do not own a Tesla yet and my Elantra still uses the same GPS maps from 2013. It's hit or miss.

Tesla providing updates to improve "used" cars is a big bonus to owners.

[Fermion]

Well, at least one thing should come out of all of this. If the world is wealthy enough to switch over to EV, then all of our stocks should do well, not just Tesla. Holding the index funds should be a winner if Tesla is cheap right now at half a trillion plus because it means there is a lot more consumer spending ahead of us in the coming decade.

[oneill225]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Well, at least one thing should come out of all of this. If the world is wealthy enough to switch over to EV, then all of our stocks should do well, not just Tesla. Holding the index funds should be a winner if Tesla is cheap right now at half a trillion plus because it means there is a lot more consumer spending ahead of us in the coming decade.

Tesla's profits and stock performance will be tied to the natural shift from an older, less competitive technology (ICE) to a new and better tech (EV). It has nothing to do with some increase in world wealth any more than the shift from tube TVs to large flat screens relied on a "world wealthy enough" to make the transition.

New EVs are on the verge of cost parity with ICE vehicles. Some are already there. Musk is predicting that battery costs, which continue a steady decline, will actually make EVs cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

There is a reason why VW, Volvo, Ford, Etc, are suddenly all onboard for cranking out new EVs. Unfortunately for them, Tesla is years ahead of them in terms of battery and software tech. The point when nearly every new car/truck buyer can purchase an EV for less than a comparable ICE will occur over the next few years. The automotive losers in this massive market shift will be the legacy auto makers who dragged their feet (not Tesla).

If this is not enough of a clue to invest in TSLA now (on a dip), think about the coming autonomous vehicle market and who the leaders are for that coming reality. Again, Tesla is near or at the top of that list with billions of miles of real life driving data to create a safer system. Every Tesla that is being driven, generates new data to improve the algorithms and mapping. TSLA is relatively cheap, right now and the market for EVs is huge.

[MRG]

Here's an article about the newest price points for EVs.

https://electrek.co/2020/11/27/tesla...electric-cars/

The electric car market is about to be accessible to a lot more people as we now learn that Tesla and Volkswagen, the two market leaders for electric vehicles, have now both greenlighted electric car programs that are going to start at ~$25,000 to $30,000.

[ownyourfuture]

I was lucky enough to purchase 20 shares in the mid 220’s in May 2019.
What I like most about Tesla is that they've created a brand. If you yelled out ’Tesla’ in a movie theater 20 years ago, the reaction would most likely have been blank stares.

Do the same thing today, & the vast majority of people would think of an electric car. That being said, it does seem to be insanely overvalued now, but I'm going to hold. It accounts for 7.20% of a taxable brokerage account.

[FIREarly]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ownyourfuture That being said, it does seem to be insanely overvalued now, but I'm going to hold.

Tesla is almost always spoken of as overvalued or provided an extremely weak expected future price (Goldman Sachs (and others) I believe). IMO, Tesla is ahead of its time and other car companies will follow its lead but might not reach its level.

Hopefully other car companies are also successful with EVs... well almost as successful

PS TSLA is green +2.05%
(it makes DCA difficult because I want to buy more!)

[Christine]

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneill225 New EVs are on the verge of cost parity with ICE vehicles. Some are already there. Musk is predicting that battery costs, which continue a steady decline, will actually make EVs cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

I will just add to that. I've driven an EV now for about two years. And it's much cheaper to drive and service than any other car I've had. So even if it's more expensive to buy it is more frugal to buy since you save in the long run.



And the convenience factor of charging at home compared to the weekly gas station run.