Anyone else a Tesla investor?

[oneill225]

Well, at least one thing should come out of all of this. If the world is wealthy enough to switch over to EV, then all of our stocks should do well, not just Tesla. Holding the index funds should be a winner if Tesla is cheap right now at half a trillion plus because it means there is a lot more consumer spending ahead of us in the coming decade.

Tesla's profits and stock performance will be tied to the natural shift from an older, less competitive technology (ICE) to a new and better tech (EV). It has nothing to do with some increase in world wealth any more than the shift from tube TVs to large flat screens relied on a "world wealthy enough" to make the transition.

New EVs are on the verge of cost parity with ICE vehicles. Some are already there. Musk is predicting that battery costs, which continue a steady decline, will actually make EVs cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

There is a reason why VW, Volvo, Ford, Etc, are suddenly all onboard for cranking out new EVs. Unfortunately for them, Tesla is years ahead of them in terms of battery and software tech. The point when nearly every new car/truck buyer can purchase an EV for less than a comparable ICE will occur over the next few years. The automotive losers in this massive market shift will be the legacy auto makers who dragged their feet (not Tesla).

If this is not enough of a clue to invest in TSLA now (on a dip), think about the coming autonomous vehicle market and who the leaders are for that coming reality. Again, Tesla is near or at the top of that list with billions of miles of real life driving data to create a safer system. Every Tesla that is being driven, generates new data to improve the algorithms and mapping. TSLA is relatively cheap, right now and the market for EVs is huge.

 

[MRG]

Here's an article about the newest price points for EVs.

https://electrek.co/2020/11/27/tesla-volkswagen-compete-new-affordable-electric-cars/

The electric car market is about to be accessible to a lot more people as we now learn that Tesla and Volkswagen, the two market leaders for electric vehicles, have now both greenlighted electric car programs that are going to start at ~$25,000 to $30,000.

 

[ownyourfuture]

I was lucky enough to purchase 20 shares in the mid 220’s in May 2019.
What I like most about Tesla is that they've created a brand. If you yelled out ’Tesla’ in a movie theater 20 years ago, the reaction would most likely have been blank stares.

Do the same thing today, & the vast majority of people would think of an electric car. That being said, it does seem to be insanely overvalued now, but I'm going to hold. It accounts for 7.20% of a taxable brokerage account.

 

[FIREarly]

That being said, it does seem to be insanely overvalued now, but I'm going to hold.

Tesla is almost always spoken of as overvalued or provided an extremely weak expected future price (Goldman Sachs (and others) I believe). IMO, Tesla is ahead of its time and other car companies will follow its lead but might not reach its level.

Hopefully other car companies are also successful with EVs... well almost as successful

PS TSLA is green +2.05%
(it makes DCA difficult because I want to buy more!)

 

[Christine]

New EVs are on the verge of cost parity with ICE vehicles. Some are already there. Musk is predicting that battery costs, which continue a steady decline, will actually make EVs cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

I will just add to that. I've driven an EV now for about two years. And it's much cheaper to drive and service than any other car I've had. So even if it's more expensive to buy it is more frugal to buy since you save in the long run.



And the convenience factor of charging at home compared to the weekly gas station run.

 

[aja8888]

Here's an article about the newest price points for EVs.

https://electrek.co/2020/11/27/tesla-volkswagen-compete-new-affordable-electric-cars/

The electric car market is about to be accessible to a lot more people as we now learn that Tesla and Volkswagen, the two market leaders for electric vehicles, have now both greenlighted electric car programs that are going to start at ~$25,000 to $30,000.

When the new VW EV is sold out of the Tennessee plant we are planning to buy one. They have a dealer network and that's important to us. BTW, I recall your Tesla was in an accident recently. Is the repair (bodywork, etc) completed yet?

 

[oneill225]

When the new VW EV is sold out of the Tennessee plant we are planning to buy one. They have a dealer network and that's important to us. BTW, I recall your Tesla was in an accident recently. Is the repair (bodywork, etc) completed yet?

Good choice. Looks like VW will be all in by 2022. They should bring good marketing and sell well enough to expand the market.

Tesla will be cranking out improved Model Ys from Texas starting next year. Competition makes the world a better place.

 

[FIREarly]

Looks like VW will be all in by 2022.

Audi is also planning to go 100% electric
Hyundai is going to dramatically increase their EVs
Sure more car companies will follow

Still a big fan of Tesla and TSLA!!

 

[MRG]

When the new VW EV is sold out of the Tennessee plant we are planning to buy one. They have a dealer network and that's important to us. BTW, I recall your Tesla was in an accident recently. Is the repair (bodywork, etc) completed yet?

Nah, they're telling me the end of 2020. It's kinda nice as I contacted the manager of customer support in this area and he sheepishly said it is going to be 4-6 weeks on parts I hope the independent tesla certificated body shop set your expectations. They gave me the same estimates.

Might be great not to drive the exact same highway I hit the last deer in 2020. Maybe 2021 will be better for deer and humans?

 

[mh]

Does anybody have any info on what VW will do re charging network when I looked a long while back it was a bit of hand waving

 

[oneill225]

Does anybody have any info on what VW will do re charging network when I looked a long while back it was a bit of hand waving

Not sure. Search for "VW Id4 in US". There are other charging networks in the US that are likely to partner with VW (if they haven't already).

 

[FIREarly]

Does anybody have any info on what VW will do re charging network when I looked a long while back it was a bit of hand waving

Possibly a very long extension cord... until they perfect wireless charging over long distances!

 

[MRG]

Does anybody have any info on what VW will do re charging network when I looked a long while back it was a bit of hand waving

Thought they're going with Electrify America. You can use applications like plugshare to find your charging options.
Some of the duplication of efforts, multiple providers of charging stations, is IMHO stupid. I'd prefer a public network with a standard charging interface.


https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17252088/vw-porsche-electric-car-charging-station-us

VW vows to build massive electric car charging network0 across US

It hopes to rival Tesla in scope

 

[aja8888]

Nah, they're telling me the end of 2020. It's kinda nice as I contacted the manager of customer support in this area and he sheepishly said it is going to be 4-6 weeks on parts I hope the independent tesla certificated body shop set your expectations. They gave me the same estimates.

Might be great not to drive the exact same highway I hit the last deer in 2020. Maybe 2021 will be better for deer and humans?

The deer are around here like crazy this season. I almost hit one leaving the neighborhood last week just after dark. My friend's son has a Model 3 and loves it.

We are looking to get that small VW EV for general use around the area and not use it for trips. With DW being handicapped and pushing a walker (and needing a wheelchair occasionally), we are holding on to our Dodge Grand Caravan for any long trips as the gear we need to take is "bulky". But we have been not taking many long auto trips due to Covid and the hassle in general.

Hopefully, you will get the body parts before the holiday and get that "Y" on the road again.

 

[Texas Proud]

I know some of the fan base continue to bash the people who are not with stmts like paper the walls of the outhouse with the certificates...


I do not see people who say that Tesla is overpriced saying it is going to go out of business... heck, it probably will continue to grow over the years... I am just saying that the CURRENT PRICE is too high for what the company will be able to support with profits any time in the foreseeable future...


Remember, a current price is based on a discounted cash flow... when is Tesla going to start having free cash flow of $10 plus billion a year? And probably should be over $20 billion with the current market value...


The 'other businesses' are a side show to cars... and there is competition with them anyhow...


BTW, it was mentioned earlier but it is now next to the bottom on reliability... and nobody can work on them except Tesla... I have read horror stories about how long it takes for them to do some things...


When it comes time for me to buy an EV, it more than likely will not be a Tesla...

 

[aja8888]

I know some of the fan base continue to bash the people who are not with stmts like paper the walls of the outhouse with the certificates...


I do not see people who say that Tesla is overpriced saying it is going to go out of business... heck, it probably will continue to grow over the years... I am just saying that the CURRENT PRICE is too high for what the company will be able to support with profits any time in the foreseeable future...


Remember, a current price is based on a discounted cash flow... when is Tesla going to start having free cash flow of $10 plus billion a year? And probably should be over $20 billion with the current market value...


The 'other businesses' are a side show to cars... and there is competition with them anyhow...


BTW, it was mentioned earlier but it is now next to the bottom on reliability... and nobody can work on them except Tesla... I have read horror stories about how long it takes for them to do some things...


When it comes time for me to buy an EV, it more than likely will not be a Tesla...

Based on Tesla's revenue, which about 85% is from car sales, they are a "niche car company". The tech is not unique in today's EV world. Remember, they have a plant (struggling, BTW) in China and you can bet that the Chinese have copies of their software and electronics.

However, the facts are that they disrupted the auto industry. And they are seen as a "religion" to many of their supporters. Thus, the high stock valuation.

One big thing that keeps them alive financially, is their cash position of around $10 B. This was achieved through the issuing of new common shares when the price was in the stratosphere. So they have a good chunk of cash to build out the new plants (Texas and Germany).

 

[Chuckanut]

T

VW vows to build massive electric car charging network0 across US

It hopes to rival Tesla in scope

I hope they're interchangeable. A bad scenario for EV's would be one with a variety of incompatible charging standards.

 

[braumeister]

I hope they're interchangeable. A bad scenario for EV's would be one with a variety of incompatible charging standards.

Alas, we're already in that mess.
Level 1 (120VAC) not very fast, but most cars can plug into one.

Level 2 (240VDC)
Teslas can use the J-1772 plug, and so can most others. Not very fast, but useful.

Level 3 (fast DC)

• Teslas have a proprietary plug for their Superchargers.
• Japanese cars tend to favor the CHAdeMO plug, as do a few others.
• VW will use the CCS plug, which is kind of a hybrid, and other makers are also getting into this standard.

 

[aja8888]

Alas, we're already in that mess.
Level 1 (120VAC) not very fast, but most cars can plug into one.

Level 2 (240VDC)
Teslas can use the J-1772 plug, and so can most others. Not very fast, but useful.

Level 3 (fast DC)

• Teslas have a proprietary plug for their Superchargers.
• Japanese cars tend to favor the CHAdeMO plug, as do a few others.
• VW will use the CCS plug, which is kind of a hybrid, and other makers are also getting into this standard.

This sound like the USB cable build out!

 

[MRG]

Alas, we're already in that mess.
Level 1 (120VAC) not very fast, but most cars can plug into one.

Level 2 (240VDC)
Teslas can use the J-1772 plug, and so can most others. Not very fast, but useful.

Level 3 (fast DC)

• Teslas have a proprietary plug for their Superchargers.
• Japanese cars tend to favor the CHAdeMO plug, as do a few others.
• VW will use the CCS plug, which is kind of a hybrid, and other makers are also getting into this standard.

+1
At this time you can charge Tesla at everything except CCS with the proper adapter. To do CHAdeMO requires a $450 adapter from Tesla. There's different adapters for Tesla chargers to J1772 and other standards.

It's a mess. I encountered two panicked ladies traveling, lost their way in their new Y and counting on a public option for their J1772 adapter. Except it's full and they have nothing for the two empty CHAdeMO chargers. I was about to invite them to our house when someone came to move their vehicle.

 

[braumeister]

To do CHAdeMO requires a $450 adapter from Tesla.

The CHAdeMO standard is kind of amusing. Developed in Japan, and they hoped it would become a worldwide standard, but still used mostly by Japanese cars.

They say it stands for "CHArge de MOve", meaning something like "charge on the go" but it actually came from the Japanese phrase O cha demo ikaga desuka, meaning "how about a cup of tea? with the idea that it would charge your car in about the time it took to have a cuppa.

 

[oneill225]

I know some of the fan base continue to bash the people who are not with stmts like paper the walls of the outhouse with the certificates...


I do not see people who say that Tesla is overpriced saying it is going to go out of business... heck, it probably will continue to grow over the years... I am just saying that the CURRENT PRICE is too high for what the company will be able to support with profits any time in the foreseeable future...


Remember, a current price is based on a discounted cash flow... when is Tesla going to start having free cash flow of $10 plus billion a year? And probably should be over $20 billion with the current market value...


The 'other businesses' are a side show to cars... and there is competition with them anyhow...


BTW, it was mentioned earlier but it is now next to the bottom on reliability... and nobody can work on them except Tesla... I have read horror stories about how long it takes for them to do some things...


When it comes time for me to buy an EV, it more than likely will not be a Tesla...

A lot to unpack there, but ARK Investments has done repeated, comprehensive valuation assessments of Tesla and they have been on the money, so far, largely following "Wrights Law". Here is one from January of this year that puts Tesla's 2024 expected price target at $7,000:

https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

The bottom line is this: EVs will, within the next few years, cost less than comparably equipped ICE vehicles across all market segments. During that same period charging networks and options will continue to grow along with the range and safety of batteries. When this happens, only a few diehards will continue to purchase an inferior ICE vehicle over an EV. The switch will be on and ICE vehicles will fade out along with refineries and gas stations that exist to support them.

Why is Tesla stock soaring? They have a solid 1-2 year lead on the other EV manufactures (range, speed, charging, software) and they are accelerating production with new plants in Germany and Texas opening next year. Tesla will also be the leader in electric semi sales beginning next year. Most on this site have lived through the rise of Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. Tesla may be better positioned than all of them before they took off.

 

[FIREarly]

A lot to unpack there, but ARK Investments has done repeated, comprehensive valuation assessments of Tesla and they have been on the money, so far, largely following "Wrights Law". Here is one from January of this year that puts Tesla's 2024 expected price target at $7,000:

https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/tesla-price-target/

The bottom line is this: EVs will, within the next few years, cost less than comparably equipped ICE vehicles across all market segments. During that same period charging networks and options will continue to grow along with the range and safety of batteries. When this happens, only a few diehards will continue to purchase an inferior ICE vehicle over an EV. The switch will be on and ICE vehicles will fade out along with refineries and gas stations that exist to support them.

Why is Tesla stock soaring? They have a solid 1-2 year lead on the other EV manufactures (range, speed, charging, software) and they are accelerating production with new plants in Germany and Texas opening next year. Tesla will also be the leader in electric semi sales beginning next year. Most on this site have lived through the rise of Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft. Tesla may be better positioned than all of them before they took off.

+1

 

[Ready]

If you take a closer look at the Consumer Reports ratings on reliability, the story is not as simple as it sounds. When looking at the individual components of the car, Tesla ranks better or much better than average for everything except paint and body hardware.

Tesla has definitely struggled to get the paint quality under control. However, most of their cars come out of the factory just fine. It's the ones that don't that bring the ratings way down. And inspecting a car for paint defects before purchasing it is a fairly simple thing to do.

Both of our Model 3's had flawless paint jobs coming out of the factory. Although we did reject the first one because it had some defects. After we bought them we paid $600 to have a professional ceramic coating installed on them. The coating has kept the paint looking flawless on both cars.

And both of our cars have been trouble free since day one. So I don't place much stock in what Consumer Reports says. The owner satisfaction ratings have been higher than any other brand. So even with whatever reliability issues the owners have experienced they still rate their satisfaction with the car higher than any other car that CR has ever collected data on. And I bet the current stock valuation has something to do with that.

 

[Animorph]

I know some of the fan base continue to bash the people who are not with stmts like paper the walls of the outhouse with the certificates...


I do not see people who say that Tesla is overpriced saying it is going to go out of business... heck, it probably will continue to grow over the years... I am just saying that the CURRENT PRICE is too high for what the company will be able to support with profits any time in the foreseeable future...


Remember, a current price is based on a discounted cash flow... when is Tesla going to start having free cash flow of $10 plus billion a year? And probably should be over $20 billion with the current market value...


The 'other businesses' are a side show to cars... and there is competition with them anyhow...


BTW, it was mentioned earlier but it is now next to the bottom on reliability... and nobody can work on them except Tesla... I have read horror stories about how long it takes for them to do some things...


When it comes time for me to buy an EV, it more than likely will not be a Tesla...

You finally got me to look at Tesla's free cash flow. It was $1.4B for Q3 2020. If they can keep that up, $10B/year is only a few years away. Like when Cybertruck and Semi are being mass produced in a couple of years.

Didn't Amazon have the same problem? Tesla is not trying to generate cash, much less dividends. They are trying to grow as fast as possible, so the capital expenditures are eating into the cash they do generate. Amazon did just fine doing that and I'm sure Tesla will to. I was never an Amazon investor, but I remember all the angst about Amazon spending on growth and never showing much profit.

The trick in either case is to recognize when growth starts to saturate their market and level off. I've noticed a few share price falls for other companies when growth finally slowed. At the moment Tesla has plenty of room for growth. The whole ICE car and truck market, of which they are still a very small part, the solar power market, the battery market, plus the autonomous car market in the future. They have been cost conscious and looking towards lower price points with higher volume. I love the product, given it is one-size-fits-all at this point.

Yeah, I thought the stock was overpriced after a 600%(!!) rise this year added to what it did last year after it hit its low. Not that it matters, since I bought shares just for fun. But now, maybe the numbers don't look so bad. I'll continue to hold, but trim if it exceeds 5% of my portfolio.

I do worry for some of the Tesla "investors" I have run across. I've seen things like "I'm going to limit Tesla to 70% of my portfolio". I hope that's a small portfolio, but easy come, easy go. Heck, they probably have more than me, on paper.