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Old 06-22-2022, 10:32 AM   #181
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Normally the funds duration value guides you as to how long it will take to make back what you are down when rates rise .

The duration value gets you back to the original deal you had the day you bought in .

It is really not much different then waiting for the maturity of an individual bond or selling early and taking a loss .
Agreed, reading this thread, you'd think there was a way to fool the market by holding individual bonds. But it's just math that losses now in NAV with immediate reset to market yields (fund) or losses later in lower yields (individual bonds) works out the same in the end, no free lunch anywhere in sight.
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Old 06-22-2022, 10:41 AM   #182
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cheesehead, you have $1.4M and need $35,000 in income. What about a 50/50 allocation to equities/1 year T bills. The coupon today is 2.9% and that would be $20,300 for the year. Could you make up the $15k from equities or sell some equities to generate that? Just a thought.
Or you can generate about $76K per year investing $1.4M in AAA/AA+ agency bonds/notes backed by the government with zero risk to your capital.
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Old 06-22-2022, 10:43 AM   #183
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Agreed, reading this thread, you'd think there was a way to fool the market by holding individual bonds. But it's just math that losses now in NAV with immediate reset to market yields (fund) or losses later in lower yields (individual bonds) works out the same in the end, no free lunch anywhere in sight.

Kiplinger has this to say - "When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near 0% overnight two years ago to offset the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, we advocated investing in bond funds and decreased our investment in individual bonds where it made sense. We did this because the bonds in those funds were already providing higher yields than if we had purchased individual bonds....Now, as rates have started to rise, the reverse could make sense. Investors may look to replace these bond funds with individual bonds, which have a better yield since the funds now hold bonds with lower yields." https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/...-that-can-help
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Old 06-22-2022, 11:22 AM   #184
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Kiplinger has this to say - "When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to near 0% overnight two years ago to offset the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, we advocated investing in bond funds and decreased our investment in individual bonds where it made sense. We did this because the bonds in those funds were already providing higher yields than if we had purchased individual bonds....Now, as rates have started to rise, the reverse could make sense. Investors may look to replace these bond funds with individual bonds, which have a better yield since the funds now hold bonds with lower yields." https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/...-that-can-help
Kiplinger has a poor understanding how fixed income investors think. When the Fed cut interest rates to zero, I just floated my coupon payments and maturities at 0.45% in money market savings account. Meanwhile bond funds were buying up those low coupon bonds as money flowed in. Now that rates are falling, bond funds are selling their holdings at losses while fixed income investors are moving money back into much higher yielding bonds at steep discounts.
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Old 06-22-2022, 11:32 AM   #185
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Kiplinger has a poor understanding how fixed income investors think. When the Fed cut interest rates to zero, I just floated my coupon payments and maturities at 0.45% in money market savings account. Meanwhile bond funds were buying up those low coupon bonds as money flowed in. Now that rates are falling, bond funds are selling their holdings at losses while fixed income investors are moving money back into much higher yielding bonds at steep discounts.
For now, it is my understanding they are saying the same thing you are - sell the bond funds because CD/ individual bond rates are higher. So I assume you just disagree with their buy the funds when rates are falling recommendation since you don't buy bond funds at all?
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Old 06-22-2022, 12:06 PM   #186
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I'm not sure if other investment sites have the same feature, but with Fidelity, when I go to trade fixed income they have a summary yield screen that has almost all the yields posted for all their different fixed income offerings in one chart. There's quite a bit at 3% or higher these days. The only thing I see not included are TIPS, but those are just a click away on their own screens, auction and secondary.


I know Vanguard has similar a similar table of fixed income yields. Very handy.
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Old 06-22-2022, 12:33 PM   #187
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For now, it is my understanding they are saying the same thing you are - sell the bond funds because CD/ individual bond rates are higher. So I assume you just disagree with their buy the funds when rates are falling recommendation since you don't buy bond funds at all?
No I disagree with any notion that you should move into bond funds when rates are going to zero. Bond funds are not bonds. They are not good proxies for bonds either. A bond (unless perpetual) has a finite term and a fixed coupon (unless it's a floating rate). A bond fund is a perpetual financial instrument with no protection of capital and no guarantee of coupons. When rates are going to zero, that is the most dangerous time to buy a bond fund since they are buying those low coupon bonds that no individual bond investor would buy. Many in the bond fund fan club would argue that if rates went to zero went to zero again, bond funds would see asset values increase. However, think about how much higher the value of individual with much higher coupons would appreciate.
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Old 06-22-2022, 12:45 PM   #188
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Or you can generate about $76K per year investing $1.4M in AAA/AA+ agency bonds/notes backed by the government with zero risk to your capital.
Heh, heh, First, get $1.4 million. No problem.

But, yeah, that would be an excellent supplement to most SS, thus assuring a reasonable retirement income. YMMV
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Old 06-22-2022, 03:43 PM   #189
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Or you can generate about $76K per year investing $1.4M in AAA/AA+ agency bonds/notes backed by the government with zero risk to your capital.

Care to share where you obtain a rate of 5.43%?

I don't see it.

Fixed Income OfferingsPOWERED BY BondSourceTM
3 Mo 6 Mo 9 Mo 1 Yr 18 Mo 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr+
CDs 1.91 2.26 2.60 3.00 3.00 3.30 3.35 3.45 3.50 -- -- --
Bonds
U.S. Treasuries 1.65 2.39 2.70 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.21 3.26 3.26 3.16 3.53 3.26
U.S. Treasury Zeros -- -- -- 2.51 2.80 2.92 3.10 3.20 3.25 3.25 3.66 --
Government Agencies 1.21 -- 2.31 2.72 2.99 3.07 3.24 3.44 3.60 3.91 4.17 4.16
Corporates (AAA) -- -- -- 2.46 2.71 -- -- 3.43 3.62 -- 4.22 4.57
Corporates (AA) -- -- 2.05 2.80 2.98 3.13 3.46 3.69 3.86 4.25 4.78 5.08
Corporates (A) 1.65 1.98 2.59 3.17 4.00 3.61 4.01 4.23 4.35 5.29 5.64 5.37
Municipals (AAA) 0.60 -- 1.09 1.78 1.94 2.05 2.43 2.50 2.68 4.05 4.46 4.08
Municipals (AA) 1.31 1.41 1.65 2.02 2.08 2.36 2.47 2.57 2.79 4.08 4.54 4.51
Municipals (A) 1.40 1.41 1.68 2.02 2.13 2.36 2.47 2.82 2.84 4.08 4.56 4.80
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Old 06-22-2022, 04:17 PM   #190
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Or you can generate about $76K per year investing $1.4M in AAA/AA+ agency bonds/notes backed by the government with zero risk to your capital.

Care to share where you obtain a rate of 5.43%?

I don't see it.

Fixed Income OfferingsPOWERED BY BondSourceTM
3 Mo 6 Mo 9 Mo 1 Yr 18 Mo 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr+
CDs 1.91 2.26 2.60 3.00 3.00 3.30 3.35 3.45 3.50 -- -- --
Bonds
U.S. Treasuries 1.65 2.39 2.70 2.91 3.01 3.07 3.21 3.26 3.26 3.16 3.53 3.26
U.S. Treasury Zeros -- -- -- 2.51 2.80 2.92 3.10 3.20 3.25 3.25 3.66 --
Government Agencies 1.21 -- 2.31 2.72 2.99 3.07 3.24 3.44 3.60 3.91 4.17 4.16
Corporates (AAA) -- -- -- 2.46 2.71 -- -- 3.43 3.62 -- 4.22 4.57
Corporates (AA) -- -- 2.05 2.80 2.98 3.13 3.46 3.69 3.86 4.25 4.78 5.08
Corporates (A) 1.65 1.98 2.59 3.17 4.00 3.61 4.01 4.23 4.35 5.29 5.64 5.37
Municipals (AAA) 0.60 -- 1.09 1.78 1.94 2.05 2.43 2.50 2.68 4.05 4.46 4.08
Municipals (AA) 1.31 1.41 1.65 2.02 2.08 2.36 2.47 2.57 2.79 4.08 4.54 4.51
Municipals (A) 1.40 1.41 1.68 2.02 2.13 2.36 2.47 2.82 2.84 4.08 4.56 4.80
Your yield table is out of date. The yields are higher across the board. See attached. There was a new issue under Agency/GSE this morning that sold out. It was a 5.48% 6/27/42 bond rated AAA/AA+. It's not a big stretch to earn $76K with $1.4M capital.
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File Type: jpg fidelity.jpg (303.1 KB, 43 views)
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Old 06-22-2022, 07:53 PM   #191
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Normally the funds duration value guides you as to how long it will take to make back what you are down when rates rise .

The duration value gets you back to the original deal you had the day you bought in .

It is really not much different then waiting for the maturity of an individual bond or selling early and taking a loss .

However with high yield there is also credit risk effecting things so duration value does not work the same way .it is kind of unknown how long
The duration indicates the sensitivity in years of how a bond's price or a bond fund's nav will change relative to each 1% increase/decrease in the interest rate but that requires all of the dividends to be reinvested otherwise the timeframe is longer.

Say you have a bond and a bond fund each with the same duration in a rising rate environment. Say the duration of each is 5 years. With the bond, if you don't sell before maturity you collect the coupon every 6 months and assuming no default you get your principal back at maturity. With the bond fund, after 5 years you pretty much made up the loss if you reinvested the monthly dividend but then there is the expense ratio that eroded the value of the investment. If rates have continued to rise over the 5 years, your breakeven horizon keeps moving into the future. Now if you are younger that may not matter, if you are older will you have the time to wait just to get back to even?

Investing has always been about the future value of X, today I find those years I had are gone and I don't want to be a situation of waiting 5 years to break even in a bond fund as rates continue to rise.
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Old 06-22-2022, 07:57 PM   #192
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Or you can generate about $76K per year investing $1.4M in AAA/AA+ agency bonds/notes backed by the government with zero risk to your capital.
100% in fixed income does not provide growth for inflation. A 25/75 or 30/70 AA is far less volatile than a 50/50 or 60/40 AA and surprisingly provides a decent level of growth. A 0/100 AA may seem safe but it can run out of money in inflationary times like we had in the 70's. I've looked at enough charts showing AA to believe this.
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Old 06-22-2022, 08:11 PM   #193
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The duration indicates the sensitivity in years of how a bond's price or a bond fund's nav will change relative to each 1% increase/decrease in the interest rate but that requires all of the dividends to be reinvested otherwise the timeframe is longer.

Say you have a bond and a bond fund each with the same duration in a rising rate environment. Say the duration of each is 5 years. With the bond, if you don't sell before maturity you collect the coupon every 6 months and assuming no default you get your principal back at maturity. With the bond fund, after 5 years you pretty much made up the loss if you reinvested the monthly dividend but then there is the expense ratio that eroded the value of the investment. If rates have continued to rise over the 5 years, your breakeven horizon keeps moving into the future. Now if you are younger that may not matter, if you are older will you have the time to wait just to get back to even?

Investing has always been about the future value of X, today I find those years I had are gone and I don't want to be a situation of waiting 5 years to break even in a bond fund as rates continue to rise.
+1. I'd still like to see an actual math example of how one comes out ahead by sticking with the bond fund, even with waiting 5 years and assuming no further NAV drops. I sold my bond funds early in the year and switched to short term Treasuries. I avoided a 12% loss so far and will likely make 2% or so on the Treasuries. I just put an order in for TIPS from some of the Treasury money that matured and will buy more TIPS as the year progresses, currently yielding more than I bonds because the real interest rate is above 0%.

If someone can show me with a math example how I would have come out ahead in 5 years (or broke even) by having stayed in the bond funds I would be interested in seeing those actual calculations.
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Old 06-22-2022, 08:46 PM   #194
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100% in fixed income does not provide growth for inflation. A 25/75 or 30/70 AA is far less volatile than a 50/50 or 60/40 AA and surprisingly provides a decent level of growth. A 0/100 AA may seem safe but it can run out of money in inflationary times like we had in the 70's. I've looked at enough charts showing AA to believe this.
I think you have been brainwashed by the ETF/Mutual fund industry. Those asset allocation recommendations are self serving so that the industry can continue to collect fees for assets under management. We are not living in the 70's and early 80's. The debt levels are too high today for rates to move yields up to levels seen in the early 80's. The average consumer, business, and government are far more leveraged than they were in the 70's and early 80's. I don't own equities/funds or bond funds. My investment objectives are simple, generate income and preserve capital. I invest in limited duration fixed income products (CDs, treasuries, corporate notes, preferred stocks, or cash deposits) My interest income is now 6.6 times higher than my expenses. My pension covers all my expenses with the exception of income taxes due from interest income on taxable accounts. I'm not really concerned about inflation. With rates rising, my interest income will continue to rise as all the coupon payments and maturities that I have held in money market funds for almost two years is being invested at much higher coupons. Unlike bond funds that buy bonds even at negative yields to stay invested, I can choose to wait until the next rate hike event (like back 2013, 2015, 2018, and now 2022) to invest. I know that funds have no choice but to go into a buy high sell low mode when the Fed decides to hike rates. This is extremely predictable.

What do you tell all those people who own no stocks or bonds but live comfortably on rental income? Are their asset allocations all wrong?
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Old 06-22-2022, 09:16 PM   #195
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100% in fixed income does not provide growth for inflation. A 25/75 or 30/70 AA is far less volatile than a 50/50 or 60/40 AA and surprisingly provides a decent level of growth. A 0/100 AA may seem safe but it can run out of money in inflationary times like we had in the 70's. I've looked at enough charts showing AA to believe this.

TIPS and I bonds are inflation adjusted, at least CPI inflation. With nominal bonds you can make a ladder and get a rolling average of interest rates. Ray Dalio is saying we are likely in for stagflation for some time. I don't know who is correct, but I think it is best to try to have a portfolio that works for multiple scenarios, including high inflation. We use a matching strategy for our retirement expenses.
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Old Yesterday, 01:39 PM   #196
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Me If I bought and sold during periods of market volatility like this, I'd be broke by now. Market timing never works for me so I am just holding on tight for now.

I am doing the same thing. I have had my Total Market Bond Fund for18 years and just leave it be.
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Old Yesterday, 02:13 PM   #197
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+1. I'd still like to see an actual math example of how one comes out ahead by sticking with the bond fund, even with waiting 5 years and assuming no further NAV drops. I sold my bond funds early in the year and switched to short term Treasuries. I avoided a 12% loss so far and will likely make 2% or so on the Treasuries. I just put an order in for TIPS from some of the Treasury money that matured and will buy more TIPS as the year progresses, currently yielding more than I bonds because the real interest rate is above 0%.

If someone can show me with a math example how I would have come out ahead in 5 years (or broke even) by having stayed in the bond funds I would be interested in seeing those actual calculations.
I'd be interested in seeing that math as well.

I wasn't smart enough to buy bonds instead of bond funds. I also was not smart enough to sell my bond funds earlier this year and have that 11-12% drop in a lot of my bond fund values. So, my question is what to do now? My stock funds are going down much more, but I'm not selling. I expect them eventually to go up in the long term and don't like to sell stocks when they are down. But, should the same approach apply to bond funds? Now that they are down, should I hold them until they recover? If not, what should I do?
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Old Yesterday, 02:33 PM   #198
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This reminds me of the 'better to rent vs. buy' conversation right after the 2008 housing bubble bust. You can be 100% correct in the moment but 100% wrong a decade later. Bottom line is you just pick a side and you take your chances. With regard to bonds, I'm too lazy and I don't trust myself to pick individual bonds. I'm just sticking with the bond fund. For me I'm looking more for income vs. appreciation....at least that's how I rationalize it.
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Old Yesterday, 04:47 PM   #199
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I'd be interested in seeing that math as well.

I wasn't smart enough to buy bonds instead of bond funds. I also was not smart enough to sell my bond funds earlier this year and have that 11-12% drop in a lot of my bond fund values. So, my question is what to do now? My stock funds are going down much more, but I'm not selling. I expect them eventually to go up in the long term and don't like to sell stocks when they are down. But, should the same approach apply to bond funds? Now that they are down, should I hold them until they recover? If not, what should I do?
I asked much the same thing recently. Ultimately I became convinced that bond funds aren't like stock funds. What you "own" in a bond fund isn't the same as what you own in a stock fund. They aren't comparable in the same way. Because of that I don't see sticking with a bond fund the same way as I see sticking with equities. And, even with stock funds it is perfectly fine to sell Stock Fund A and buy Stock Fund B instead. You can maintain your allocation and make changes within it.

So, just a few days ago I sold my bond funds (I do still own Wellesley) and I took the money and bought short terms Treasury bills. That is a bit of a holding pattern and I will decide what I am going to do longer term which might include buying some CDs or some longer term Treasury bills or a mix of them. I am not personally inclined to buy individual bonds because I don't like the lack of diversification (hence the reason I was in bond funds in the first place).
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Old Yesterday, 06:47 PM   #200
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I asked much the same thing recently. Ultimately I became convinced that bond funds aren't like stock funds. What you "own" in a bond fund isn't the same as what you own in a stock fund. They aren't comparable in the same way. Because of that I don't see sticking with a bond fund the same way as I see sticking with equities. And, even with stock funds it is perfectly fine to sell Stock Fund A and buy Stock Fund B instead. You can maintain your allocation and make changes within it.

So, just a few days ago I sold my bond funds (I do still own Wellesley) and I took the money and bought short terms Treasury bills. That is a bit of a holding pattern and I will decide what I am going to do longer term which might include buying some CDs or some longer term Treasury bills or a mix of them. I am not personally inclined to buy individual bonds because I don't like the lack of diversification (hence the reason I was in bond funds in the first place).
Please note that if you had individual bonds and sold them prior to maturity, you would also take a loss based on decreased value. Individual bonds also decrease in value during rising rates.
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