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02-28-2020, 12:38 PM
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#41
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 12,654
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Lots of 2008 threads are showing up under "Similar Threads" on my page.
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If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success – to be able to spend your life in your own way.’ Christopher Morley.
Even a blind clock finds an acorn twice a day.
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02-28-2020, 12:39 PM
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#42
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 6,506
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The market will hit bottom at: NYSE, 11 Wall Street, Lower Manhattan, New York City, New York.
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There must be moderation in everything, including moderation.
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02-28-2020, 12:50 PM
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#43
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: Rural Alabama
Posts: 1,359
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I bought some today. I don't know when it will bottom but a 15% off sale just proved irresistible. The funny thing is, I had JUST taken money out of stocks last month to make my portfolio more conservative. Since bond prices are up, I made a profit on that. I love it when that happens.
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Projected retirement--2020 at age 48 (done!)
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02-28-2020, 12:53 PM
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#44
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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The market will hit bottom on April first!
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02-28-2020, 12:58 PM
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#45
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 442
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Don't know when the mkt will hit bottom.
So Did Tax Loss Harvesting in taxable acct today
VTIAX (Vanguard International Fund) >> VFWAX (Vanguard FTSE EX-US World Fund)
VTMSX (Vanguard Tax Managed small Cap Fund)>> VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund)
Will Rebalance next week if the rebalance bars get hit
Have a great Weekend!
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anyone know where the market will hit bottom?
02-29-2020, 05:01 AM
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#46
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,867
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anyone know where the market will hit bottom?
Its been suggested that the efficient market theory has been in play and the virus impacts already factored into the Market. The trouble is I’m it sure that true. Ask yourself what business wouldn’t be adversely affected if no one left their homes? I sold a big chunk a while back because i felt I had done well and wanted to capture the profits.
The trouble is no one knows...panic selling naah thats always a bad move.
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02-29-2020, 06:31 AM
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#47
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
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Quote:
I do. But I'm not telling.
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Well, that's just not nice. I know too, and I will tell.
Maybe the market has hit bottom, and maybe it hasn't.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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02-29-2020, 06:54 AM
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#48
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 2,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GenXguy
This could very well kick us into a recession, with a long recovery. Even if it doesn't, I think there's still plenty more downside for this market to come.
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I agree, but of course that is only a guess on my part, as nobody knows for sure. I just read something that made a pretty good case for a 20-25% decline from the highs over the next month or two. The problem with this sell off is that the coronavirus thing is not going to get any better over the next few months, so I don't see how there is going to be a quick recovery. As someone else said, supply chains are being disrupted all over the world because of CV, so it follows that earnings will start to be affected soon also.
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02-29-2020, 07:04 AM
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#49
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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When/if this all subsides, there will/should, Inshallah, be substantial pent up demand.
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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02-29-2020, 07:17 AM
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#50
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Back woods of Fennario
Posts: 1,170
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Me personally - I'm neither doing my Roth conversion nor buying the dip until the: "It's just the flu, brah..." narrative stops.
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"Time wounds all heels...." - Groucho Marx
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02-29-2020, 07:31 AM
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#51
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 575
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My business has a fair amount of China supply chain impact. We have seen the suppliers there starting back, but the impact for our manufacturing will be in the next weeks. That said, depending on how fast they ramp, it may be pretty limited. We always hedge somewhat with inventory on this long supply chain items.
I went in a little yesterday with IVV, and if it dips again next week, will go in some more. Still have 3-5 years so I am thinking/hoping this is great buy-in opportunity.
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02-29-2020, 07:33 AM
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#52
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo2
When/if this all subsides, there will/should, Inshallah, be substantial pent up demand.
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Only for some things.
I'm not going to go eat at restaurants at 2x the normal rate, it's just a missed opportunity.
Movie theaters, will simply miss selling out to crowds for the next hot movie (if there is one) in the next couple/few months, then the movie comes out on disk/netflix and it missed the theaters.
Same with some consumer things, Apple fears people who were going to buy the phone, will have their hot hearts desire cool down as they are forced to wait a couple of months.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-29-2020, 07:38 AM
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#53
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LRDave
Me personally - I'm neither doing my Roth conversion nor buying the dip until the: "It's just the flu, brah..." narrative stops.
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I cannot pick it either, but I'll break it up into chunks, as 15% off is good, so I'm going to do about 1/5 of the conversion.
Then if market goes up, I'll wait, if it goes down another 10-15% I'll do more.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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02-29-2020, 07:42 AM
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#54
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I just sold 1/2 of my put contracts on CCL, July 37.5. They have quadrupled since I bought them more than 2 weeks ago. The remaining contracts, I will keep to see what happens, but even if CCL goes back up and the options become worthless, I already recover the cost of the whole lot, plus a 100% return.
Not a lot of money here. If I sold all of these contracts now, the gain would still be 1% of what I "lost" on the whole portfolio so far. It's play money.
PS. This is the 1st time I bought puts like this. My few earlier attempts with buying bear ETFs did not work out well. But that was also play money.
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Heh, was I the one that "talked" you into buying the CCL puts? Very sorry if I took you down the dark path, although I rarely buy puts myself...to hard to time and you can't just wait things out.
I think overall on here we (people on the forum here) were pretty on top of things as to how the virus was going to hit the market. We didn't panic sell or make a ton of money on puts, but I think in general people got cautious and hopefully at least managed to put a bandaid on some of the financial pain. I was sounding my alarm bells a little early (which is why I started to doubt myself as the market kept climbing two weeks ago).
I really do think we fall to something around 19,000 on the DOW and 2400 on the S&P500. I think it will be choppy though and there will be days where the market goes up 3% and we will think it is over. I will probably stay cash over weekends and swing trade during the week in an attempt to make money either direction the market goes.
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02-29-2020, 07:46 AM
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#55
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gone traveling
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 575
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion
I really do think we fall to something around 19,000 on the DOW and 2400 on the S&P500.
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I certainly hope you're wrong on your predictions.... I want buying opportunity, but not at that pain level.
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02-29-2020, 07:50 AM
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#56
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: The Shire
Posts: 1,504
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Reply hazy, try again
Easy peasy: The market will hit bottom when the first derivative is zero and the second derivative is positive.
__________________
Paying it forward is the best investment.
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02-29-2020, 07:50 AM
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#57
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8693
I certainly hope you're wrong on your predictions.... I want buying opportunity, but not at that pain level.
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It isn't *that* bad. I bet it would be pretty V-shaped...might not even touch 19,000 but for a machine trading microsecond.
Just climb in the attic, dust off the DOW 20,000 hat you stored under grandma's knit blanket that smells too much like moth balls to use, and set aside a bit of cash to buy.
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02-29-2020, 08:17 AM
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#58
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 8,368
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
I'm not going to go eat at restaurants at 2x the normal rate, it's just a missed opportunity.
Movie theaters, will simply miss selling out to crowds .
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Good points.....not frequenting restaurants/movie theaters, (or investing in same), I tend to get a little myopic regarding some areas.
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."
The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
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02-29-2020, 10:31 AM
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#59
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mdlerth
Easy peasy: The market will hit bottom when the first derivative is zero and the second derivative is positive.
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Mathematically correct.
The problem is that the above condition frequently happens intraday. .
I have read that good day traders can make a lot of money with this info, but I myself have not had the pleasure of knowing one. They would not share with me their knowledge or skill anyway.
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-29-2020, 10:32 AM
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#60
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8693
I certainly hope you're wrong on your predictions.... I want buying opportunity, but not at that pain level.
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No pain, no gain.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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