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anyone know where the market will hit bottom?
Old 02-28-2020, 06:16 AM   #1
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anyone know where the market will hit bottom?

I was thinking about putting money in an ira and was wondering how long to wait before I do it. do you think the market will keep going down or has it hit bottom? I am going to put it in vanguard and have to do it before april 15. I know market timing is impossible, I was just asking for a best guess.

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Old 02-28-2020, 06:24 AM   #2
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That's easy...the answer is "No".
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:26 AM   #3
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How would anyone know such a thing?
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:29 AM   #4
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One doesn't have to wait to put money into an IRA because of the market. If one is eligible to contribute, then one can contribute and put the money in any of hundreds of investments such as a money market fund or a bond fund neither of which are stocks.

Then later when one wants to do some market timing one can exchange from the non-stock fund into a stock fund.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:32 AM   #5
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You can fund the IRA without putting the money into stocks, just leave it in the money market account. My guess is that this is going to take a while before the market recovers. Supply chains have been interrupted and inventories will be depleted for some products which will impact earnings.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:34 AM   #6
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No. Don't try to time the market, it's a losers game.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:34 AM   #7
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One doesn't have to wait to put money into an IRA because of the market. If one is eligible to contribute, then one can contribute and put the money in any of hundreds of investments such as a money market fund or a bond fund neither of which are stocks.

Then later when one wants to do some market timing one can exchange from the non-stock fund into a stock fund.
+1
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:37 AM   #8
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The bottom is hard to see until the market is mostly recovered. I just buy when it's low and try not to worry about buying at the perfect time.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:57 AM   #9
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Learn from the collective wisdom... no one knows! I've been investing since 1996.. starting with individual stocks but now all index. In 2008, I harvested a bunch of losses and carried them forward for years. (Sold my taxable S&P and moved to Total Market where I am today with a 40% cost basis) Because of that, I have no losses to harvest now.


In 2013, I felt the market was frothy and took about $30K (not a huge percentage but enough to make a difference in my returns) out of equities in my tax deferred account so I'd have some dry powder to buy on a correction. I gave up waiting and DCAd back in in the late 20-teens. I'd be a bit richer if I had left that money in the whole time. -I didn't know when the high was but thought I'd have an opportunity to buy that never came...even after this recent carnage I still wouldn't be able to buy in for less than I sold. No regrets, but confirmed what I already knew and that is that I cannot time the market. I won't again. Make a plan, stick with it.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:59 AM   #10
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People can usually point out the bottom for sure a year or two after it happened!
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:15 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frank View Post
I was thinking about putting money in an ira and was wondering how long to wait before I do it. do you think the market will keep going down or has it hit bottom? I am going to put it in vanguard and have to do it before april 15. I know market timing is impossible, I was just asking for a best guess.

frank
Anyone who even tries is either:
- Fooling themselves
- Full of it
- Trolling

or some combination of the above.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:19 AM   #12
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It's impossible to know such a thing. Since it's impossible, even a guess is a waste of time really. I can say for sure there are better bargains out there in the market right now than a month ago. You can always dollar cost average starting right now to enter the market.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:24 AM   #13
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you can fund the ira without putting the money into stocks, just leave it in the money market account. My guess is that this is going to take a while before the market recovers. Supply chains have been interrupted and inventories will be depleted for some products which will impact earnings.
+1

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people can usually point out the bottom for sure a year or two after it happened!
+++1
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:31 AM   #14
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+1



+++1
good answers. I think the money market for now is probably a good idea. as far as hindsight. I get it it's always 20-20
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:08 AM   #15
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I was thinking about putting money in an ira and was wondering how long to wait before I do it. do you think the market will keep going down or has it hit bottom?
You can put money in the IRA and not in the stock market. An IRA is just a box that holds your investments in a tax advantaged way. You can be Government Insured CD's in your IRA, High Risk Speculative stocks and anywhere in between.

If the market worries you, put the money in the IRA and earn tax advantaged interest with a CD (govt insured of course!).
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:16 AM   #16
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Nobody knows, that is part of the nature of risk. That is the reason why stocks generally offer greater return than less risky investments.

Suggested action points:
- Fund the IRA now.
- Schedule one-tenth (or whatever fraction you wish) of the total into stocks each month. Automate it, do not decrease it under any circumstance.
- At the end of each month, if the total is "down," move an additional amount along with the one-tenth to "even it up."
- In a year, kick yourself because your timing was wrong.
- Get over it.

That is not what I would do. I would move it all into stocks, now. Up, down, whatever. (And I would be likely "wrong" in some way - Oh well, I'll kick myself and move on.)
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:18 AM   #17
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good answers. I think the money market for now is probably a good idea. as far as hindsight. I get it it's always 20-20
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:23 AM   #18
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I think the more interesting question is, what will trigger the market to go up?

Even if the coronavirus disappears tomorrow, will the market automatically recover or will it take a few quarters of stabilized/better earnings? Or something else?
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:33 AM   #19
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I think the more interesting question is, what will trigger the market to go up?
Usually, it's more buyers than sellers. Or, when the computer algorithms decide to start buying like crazy.

Other than that, it's whenever............
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Old 02-28-2020, 10:34 AM   #20
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This could very well kick us into a recession, with a long recovery. Even if it doesn't, I think there's still plenty more downside for this market to come. I'm not going to try to catch a falling knife. I'll just rebalance when my AA gets out of whack.
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