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03-07-2018, 04:29 PM
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#61
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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Millennial wake up and realize work is a trap and all retire early.
Social Security collapses.
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Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
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03-07-2018, 04:40 PM
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#62
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-07-2018, 04:42 PM
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#63
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr
Millennial wake up and realize work is a trap and all retire early.
Social Security collapses.
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Shhhhhhhh!
__________________
Retired 2015 at age 55...50/45/5 AA
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03-07-2018, 04:43 PM
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#64
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,774
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Amazon goes into health insurance and the online pharmacy business.
__________________
“Would you like an adventure now, or would you like to have your tea first?” J.M. Barrie, Peter Pan
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03-07-2018, 04:45 PM
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#65
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 452
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What if they discover some pharmaceutical that extends a human life for 20 years? All the actuarial tables smashed to smithereens. All that time spent running scenarios on firecalc wasted.
__________________
Retired 2015 at age 55...50/45/5 AA
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03-07-2018, 04:55 PM
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#66
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 4legsgood
What if they discover some pharmaceutical that extends a human life for 20 years? All the actuarial tables smashed to smithereens. All that time spent running scenarios on firecalc wasted.
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Buy stock in companies that manufacture shuffleboard equipment and Depends
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03-07-2018, 04:59 PM
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#67
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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A new corn disease proves resistant to all treatments known to man. Entire corn production of the US is wiped out. The public outcry of lack of corn syrup for soda and corn starch for various processed food is deafening. While some experts say that this is a blessing in disguise to cure Americans if not the entire world of obesity, other more solemn scholars point to severe food shortage to come.
Indeed, there are already articles placing blame on various factors. While some say that monoculture is the problem, Monsanto says that its effort to create new GMO, if not hampered, could have avoided the problem. There are cries of "I told you so" coming from all sides. The public does not know whom to believe, while noting that food costs have increased three-fold, and supermarket shelves are no longer fully stocked.
People reminisce of the Irish potato blight, and lament that this time there's no new world to emigrate to.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-07-2018, 06:14 PM
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#68
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
A new corn disease proves resistant to all treatments known to man. Entire corn production of the US is wiped out. The public outcry of lack of corn syrup for soda and corn starch for various processed food is deafening. While some experts say that this is a blessing in disguise to cure Americans if not the entire world of obesity, other more solemn scholars point to severe food shortage to come.
Indeed, there are already articles placing blame on various factors. While some say that monoculture is the problem, Monsanto says that its effort to create new GMO, if not hampered, could have avoided the problem. There are cries of "I told you so" coming from all sides. The public does not know whom to believe, while noting that food costs have increased three-fold, and supermarket shelves are no longer fully stocked.
People reminisce of the Irish potato blight, and lament that this time there's no new world to emigrate to.
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The bees died
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03-07-2018, 06:28 PM
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#69
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Newventurer
The bees died
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Corn, wheat, and rice do not need insects for pollination; they rely on the wind.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-07-2018, 07:01 PM
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#70
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 473
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Corn, wheat, and rice do not need insects for pollination; they rely on the wind.
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The wind broke
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03-11-2018, 08:59 PM
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#71
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,338
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CoolRich59
I read once that there is a huge dormant volcano in Wyoming and that if it ever became active and blew, it would make a large part of the USA uninhabitable for quite some time.
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Yellowstone sits on a yuge pool of bubbling. . . . lava, not crude, right close to the surface. Last big (caldera) explosion was about 650,000 years ago, with such events typically happening between 600,000-800,000 year intervals (YMMV). If the big one occurs, you can kiss off most of the US.
Cheers!
https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes...b_page_54.html
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03-11-2018, 09:20 PM
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#72
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Ugh! Maybe I should look into claiming SS ASAP.
Then, I read this "Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low."
Phew!
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-11-2018, 10:47 PM
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#73
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,338
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OPTIMIST! Have you run that through FireCalc?
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Ugh! Maybe I should look into claiming SS ASAP.
Then, I read this "Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low."
Phew!
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03-11-2018, 11:18 PM
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#74
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Hey, thanks for the reminder.
I just went to FIRECalc, and put in 1000 years for the retirement period. The result is kind of weird!
It will not let me enter 10,000 years, but 9,999 years is OK. Result also weird. Try that to see for yourself.
I finally try 100 years. It says I will be rich with my low WR, but still not a billionaire after 100 years. See concurrent thread on billionaires.
How disappointing! I need to tweak my AA a bit here.
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-11-2018, 11:36 PM
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#75
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 1,338
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On the other hand--if the caldera does happen to blow in 20 years rather than 20000--you might be worth nothing.
On the other hand, dead is dead and you cain't take it with ya.
(Or to paraphrase Tolstoy badly, 6' is all the real estate a man needs.)
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03-12-2018, 11:38 AM
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#76
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,086
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Alien space craft appear.
All major religions collapse.
Aliens are hungry...
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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03-12-2018, 06:07 PM
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#77
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset
Alien space craft appear.
All major religions collapse.
Aliens are hungry...
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Why are we bringing up doomsday and end-of-the-world events?
Let's look at the thread opening post again. He was just talking about the end of the current market bull, not of mankind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newventurer
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.
Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?
As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
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__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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03-12-2018, 11:17 PM
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#78
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 17,086
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Oops , maybe the aliens are already here...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/12/polit...avy/index.html
and the market has still been bullish.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
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03-13-2018, 05:40 AM
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#79
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Fair Lawn
Posts: 2,959
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Entertaining albeit occasionally depressing thread. So many great responses that I wouldn't try to compete, so I'm just replying with this non-reply.
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03-13-2018, 12:09 PM
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#80
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Beautiful UP
Posts: 243
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According to the Dept of Homeland Security-- if the largest of the locks in Soo Michigan were to become unusable, a recession would occur within 6 months with the projected loss of jobs of about 11 million
the modern vessels that commonly traverse the Great Lakes. That is of grave concern.
According to a report by the Department of Homeland Security, if the Poe Lock were to shut down for six months, the U.S. would enter a significant recession, with a loss of up to 11 million jobs nationwide.
Heres the full link
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/op...ocks/86886074/
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