Bird watching - Black Swans

Sunset said:
Alien space craft appear.

All major religions collapse.

Aliens are hungry...
Click to expand...



Why are we bringing up doomsday and end-of-the-world events?

Let's look at the thread opening post again. He was just talking about the end of the current market bull, not of mankind. :)


Newventurer said:
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
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Entertaining albeit occasionally depressing :confused: thread. So many great responses that I wouldn't try to compete, so I'm just replying with this non-reply.
 
According to the Dept of Homeland Security-- if the largest of the locks in Soo Michigan were to become unusable, a recession would occur within 6 months with the projected loss of jobs of about 11 million

the modern vessels that commonly traverse the Great Lakes. That is of grave concern.

According to a report by the Department of Homeland Security, if the Poe Lock were to shut down for six months, the U.S. would enter a significant recession, with a loss of up to 11 million jobs nationwide.

Heres the full link

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/o...-security-depend-reliable-soo-locks/86886074/
 
Newventurer said:
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
Click to expand...

The drop happens and then the cause is assigned, this is what makes the black swan "cause" of the end of the bull market unknown, it is like news musical chairs. The market is not after "revenge" of some event, Mr Market will eventually enact a reckoning on overbullishness.
 
NW-Bound said:
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
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And due to inflation effects, you'll still get an ACA subsidy.
;)
 
If it has already happened and people know about it (earthquakes, grasshoppers, cyber attacks, plagues) it is not a black swan. If it has already happened in recent history , say the last 500 years, you can estimate when and how it will happen again.
Taleb writes:
an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
*****
So you really need to be thinking much bigger. What has never happened or not happened in the last few hundred years.



​
 
Blueskies123 said:
If it has already happened and people know about it (earthquakes, grasshoppers, cyber attacks, plagues) it is not a black swan. If it has already happened in recent history , say the last 500 years, you can estimate when and how it will happen again.
Taleb writes:
an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
*****
So you really need to be thinking much bigger. What has never happened or not happened in the last few hundred years.



​
Click to expand...
As he obviously notes it is the looking of an explanation for the event to make the unpredictable predictable. This is the looking of an explanation to go along with a precipitous event, such as the fall of the Roman Empire or the sudden collapse of civilization of the Bronze age. The result is a human need to assign a "reason" to the sudden change, when in reality it was a society based on growth and when growth is no longer possible and there comes a collapse and a previously easily fended issue becomes fatal.
 
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NW-Bound said:
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
Click to expand...

joeea said:
And due to inflation effects, you'll still get an ACA subsidy.
;)
Click to expand...

All right!

With healthcare costs outrunning inflation, in 100 years the premium is going to be $100 billion a year. But the cost to keep a 162-year-old alive is enormous, so how does one complain?

PS. What was I talking about? I will be on Medicare. In 3 years, as well as 100 years from now. :)
 
About the same time when a lot of good paying blue collar jobs started leaving the US, what jobs were left the wages just flat lined. That is due to more people chasing less decent jobs. At the same time CEOs's and upper management pay started to skyrocket.
They just keep chasing low wages, China pay starts going up,they move to Vietnam, and so it goes on.
 
One bird I am watching is actually a flock of birds.

Basically, I believe that our economy is a feedback loop and all the birds are flying around the circle in formation. People are employed and earn money, they demand goods and services , capital is used to make more goods and service, people are employed and make money. The circle starts again.

Working people ( the middle class mostly) are not going to demand more goods and services if they don't hae the money to pay for them. Those with capital to invest are not going to build a factory to make more widgets if nobody will buy them.

It's a feedback loop. And yes, it is more complicated than my simple explanation.

My concern is that our system is focusing too much on the capital part which supplies goods and services (not that it is unimportant) and not enough on the demand part.

The point is that if a few birds leave the circle for whatever reason, the circle either gets smaller (not good for growth) or it may collapse all together.

Are we there yet? I don't think so, but I do wish the recent tax overhaul would have given a bit more the the middle class and a bit less to the corporations. I am also concerned that the new trade policies may force a few birds to leave. Time will tell.
 
NW-Bound said:
How 'bout this as thin ice?

MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.

The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.
Click to expand...

Isn't this already happening? Well, except for the politician stuff.
 
NW-Bound said:
How 'bout this as thin ice?

MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.

The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.
Click to expand...

I see it with cell phones.
Workers are literally stopping work to check their phones many times a day for many minutes on end.
Shoppers will stop in the aisle to gaze at their phone, even when grocery shopping.
Car drivers sit at green lights, or drive slowly, making traffic move slower.

All this means less work is getting done, and less shopping in stores, so businesses will not expand, maybe layoff people due to lack of business. Everyone will text each other about the worsening economy, and it will worsen as they read about it.
 
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