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Bitcoin - Time to Sell?
Old 05-01-2021, 11:36 AM   #1
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Bitcoin - Time to Sell?

Schwab home page today.

I mean, this is an indicator, is it not?

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Old 05-01-2021, 09:15 PM   #2
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Not,
Bitcoin and crypto currencies are going to grow ever larger over time as more and more people adapt the technology. There is an immutable force that is going to force everyone onto crypto eventually. By definition the value of Bitcoin will rise as demand increases. Ups and downs certainly, but at this point I think crypto currency deserves a minimum of 5% of a portfolio invested in it, and I tend closer to 10%.
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https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Bitcoin - Time to Sell?
Old 05-01-2021, 09:22 PM   #3
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Bitcoin - Time to Sell?

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Not,
Bitcoin and crypto currencies are going to grow ever larger over time as more and more people adapt the technology. There is an immutable force that is going to force everyone onto crypto eventually. By definition the value of Bitcoin will rise as demand increases. Ups and downs certainly, but at this point I think crypto currency deserves a minimum of 5% of a portfolio invested in it, and I tend closer to 10%.


What immutable force is that ? There might be one I guess , but Iím not grasping it ( in itís current form )
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Old 05-01-2021, 09:52 PM   #4
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It is the same force that drove Facebook, Google and Amazon. It is the need to be on the network of digital Defi. Look at Coinbase as an indication it did not exist until 2011. It now has 56 million users of which 13 million joined in the last 3 months.
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ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Old 05-01-2021, 11:06 PM   #5
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I wish I had put 10% of my portfolio in it 15 yrs ago.... missed the boat.

Now that 1 bitcoin is worth $56,892 , I am amazed.
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Old 05-02-2021, 03:09 AM   #6
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What can I actually do with a Bitcoin today other than pay for a one of those situations where a hacker locks my computer and demands secret payment?

I'm guessing the organized crime people love this stuff but other than speculating on the future value of it, is there anything useful I can actually do with it?

If so, is it easier to do that than to use any of the myriad existing technologies?

Those are honest questions. Not trying to be provocative.
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Old 05-02-2021, 03:50 AM   #7
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You can not do any daily tasks with crypto as every transaction is a taxable event. Like trying to shop with gold or stocks.

But you could also argue that buying books on the internet was very silly when you could walk down to the bookshop.

Technology changes things in unexpected ways. Crypto may or may not be one of these life changing technologies
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Old 05-02-2021, 06:32 AM   #8
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Portfolio perfection!

25% Bitcoin
25% NFT's
25% SPACs
25% Gamestop

On a serious note, I heard on the radio 9% of all US teenagers had traded Bitcoin. Nassim Taleb now calls it a ponzi scheme. And, Jim Rogers warns governments will ban it if it gains much traction as a currency or if it competes with govt. issued crypto.
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Old 05-02-2021, 07:29 AM   #9
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I don't speculate on "assets" with no intrinsic value, or those which don't produce a dividend or something of current or future value. Buying something, hoping it will continue to go up due to speculation is gambling to me. Not my thing.
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Old 05-02-2021, 08:03 AM   #10
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Why the need to invest 10% of one's portfolio in bitcoin, which is a currency (or at least they want you to believe it is) when I don't invest 10% in euros, or yen, or rubles.
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Old 05-02-2021, 09:07 AM   #11
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What happens to Bitcoin when the US Dollar goes digital (or blockchain)?

It sure looks like a speculative bubble to me. The brokers are happy to sell it, but who wants to be holding it when it collapses?
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Old 05-02-2021, 09:44 AM   #12
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Somehow I don’t see myself getting directly involved in this “immutable force” of crypto currencies. Certainly not going to put 5-10% of the portfolio in it. I don’t see the point. I don’t do currencies or metals either, other than a modest investment in foreign stock funds. We’re in our 60s. I believe currently existing traditional investments with long histories will serve us well enough over our lifetimes. We will probably get increasingly conservative in our investments as we age.
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Old 05-02-2021, 09:51 AM   #13
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There was never spoken a need to invest in crypto currency, I suggested a minimum allocation of 5% to cryptocurrency, the need to invest in cryptocurrency will be later when you have to have it to transact in the Defi space.

Bitcoin has an advantage as a currency because the production of the currency is limited. It is the base that allows the other Crypto tokens to be able to be utilized in the digital space. In the early phase yes, Bitcoin was a speculative venture, but at over a trillion it is fast becoming the backbone of a rapidly growing system. Because of the speed and the infrastructure being built around the crypto currency the ability to transact in the digital finance world is going to be the need for one to hold assets with value in the crypto space. And Bitcoin with it's size is doing that, #2 is Ether because it is the backbone for the Apps in the digital space.

This is obviously a growing space, which is why the richest corporations and individuals in the last 12 months are becoming adopters. With a limited number of bitcoin the price will have to increase in order to accomadate increasing transactions. There will no doubt be busts along the way, but this is the future, the present debt world is broken and being maintained by not allowing interest on any savings.

If one is looking for intrinisc value in a world where the world's reserve currency can be expanded in to support 150% more spending via printing than revenue generated by taxpayers, it is clear to me why Bitcoin is becoming clearer over time.

Already, art and artists have begun the transition, which is why Mike Wiklemnan had the third highest value ever recorded by a living artist when he sold his Everydays, First 5000 days for 69 million dollars in cryptocurrency.

Doubters of Crypto currency have been vocal here since bitcoin was under $100 and claiming it held no intrinsic value all the way up. The value is it's rarity, transparency in transactions, and the inability to counterfeit. Interest rates have to stay low in the intrinsic value world because there is so much debt they cannot be allowed to float to the fair market value, so Central Banks are buying most of the worlds debt and providing money in exchange. This money is flowing into cryptocurrency, where there is no control for the central banks to hold and interest rates will flow to the rate needed.
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ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Old 05-02-2021, 10:20 AM   #14
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You can not do any daily tasks with crypto as every transaction is a taxable event. Like trying to shop with gold or stocks.

But you could also argue that buying books on the internet was very silly when you could walk down to the bookshop.

Technology changes things in unexpected ways. Crypto may or may not be one of these life changing technologies
This is simply untrue. You can if you desire, get a credit card backed by Crypto and go out and purchase anything you want and pay the balance with BTC. If you purchase .1 bitcoins for $3,000 dollars and then purchase $6,000 of goods with that .1 bitcoins then you have a gain of $3,000 to report on your taxes.

Coinbase is going to shortly issue a VISA debit card (waitlist currently) that will be eligible to use anywhere Visa is taken. The fees are going to be 1.49-3.99% of the transaction purchase TBD, however the card will earn 4% in rewards . Coinbase will have a tax report to download off of their website to use for the tax effect.
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ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Old 05-02-2021, 10:57 AM   #15
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IF you have to get a credit card backed by crypto in order to buy something, then you are not really using bitcoin. I could get a credit card backed by gold too.

Direct bitcoin transactions are ridiculously energy intensive.
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Old 05-02-2021, 11:22 AM   #16
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Portfolio perfection!



25% Bitcoin

25% NFT's

25% SPACs

25% Gamestop



On a serious note, I heard on the radio 9% of all US teenagers had traded Bitcoin. Nassim Taleb now calls it a ponzi scheme. And, Jim Rogers warns governments will ban it if it gains much traction as a currency or if it competes with govt. issued crypto.

I suspect governments will start banning it if it looks like the coin mining energy consumption issue gets out of hand.
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Old 05-02-2021, 11:22 AM   #17
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Fermion,

I think you should put some of your very high analytical skills to look into what BITCOIN and the related tokens actually make possible. You would shortly see the advantages and with the growth that is certain in the future you would be far superior in identifying the most likely successful tokens. I can tell from the dismissive attitude that you have not spent much time actually looking in to this.


You are not actually using dollars when you presently purchase on a credit card, a computer transaction occurs that registers a debt in dollars that you resolve with an account that has been credited with dollars on deposit. You have to perform some task to get the account to have a dollar balance.


Bitcoin transactions on a debit card work in exactly the same way. Yes the items purchased are not priced in Bitcoin, but one could easily have all their money in Bitcoin, earning 6% in a savings account and leave enough for day to day spending and never need to do anything else. Eventually NFT tokens are going to be created that will replace the present stock exchanges. This is inevitable and people are going to need bitcoin to engage in transactions. This may be 5 years or 10 years before all the technology is set to go, but all of the smartest tech people in the world are working on this and Bitcoin is the asset backbone which is going to make the digital world possible.

And yes you can get a credit card backed in gold, which allows your excess gold to remain in gold instead of a central bank controlled currency. Gold at present can earn 2% if deposited for 5 or more years so this would be a way to live off a large quantity of gold, while taking off the risk of currency debasement and assuming the risk of gold value fluctuation.



This is what the Winklevoss Twins saw far before anyone else, and it is going to occur.
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ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Old 05-02-2021, 11:25 AM   #18
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Ok let us just say the tax consequences are complex when making any crypto transaction.

That does not mean to say it is not the future.

Getting on the internet was complex in the 90ís
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Old 05-02-2021, 11:42 AM   #19
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I suspect governments will start banning it if it looks like the coin mining energy consumption issue gets out of hand.
Most mining is done where there is as much solar energy as possible available because the cost of electricity is the biggest element in mining and so makes solar & wind power much more competitive. In fact the most profitable miners can run on pure solar power, as they have a predictable energy need making them ideal for setting up an optimized solar solution.

So at the end of the day if one wants to retire early and still have passive income, move to a high sunshine location and set up a bitcoin solar mining farm.

https://medium.com/swlh/a-solar-cryp...o-95c6422802a4
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ERD 50 says I should post this as a warning in believing anything I would post. I allocated one percent of my portfolio to calls for 2020 and then sold all my stocks on March 5, 2020. Returned back in on June 3, 2020.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Old 05-02-2021, 12:47 PM   #20
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Most mining is done where there is as much solar energy as possible available because the cost of electricity is the biggest element in mining and so makes solar & wind power much more competitive.
Or do the engineering student thing and just rent an off-campus apartment with electricity included.
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