Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Callan Table of Periodic Investments - Monthly Update
Old 10-08-2020, 12:24 PM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,948
Callan Table of Periodic Investments - Monthly Update

Just discovered there are monthly updates available for the Callan table.

https://www.callan.com/library/

Note that free registration is required to access the research.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-08-2020, 03:05 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Laurel, MD
Posts: 5,648
Thanks. Needs to be a sticky.
__________________
...with no reasonable expectation for ER, I'm just here auditing the AP class.Retired 8/1/15.
jazz4cash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 06:00 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 10,257
How about explaining what it is for those of us who never heard of this.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 06:18 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,948
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
How about explaining what it is for those of us who never heard of this.
Powerful search engine to the rescue! Here is a recent discussion on the forum about the Callan Periodic Table of Investments.

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...rns-97084.html

Callan is a financial resource company.
"We're a private, employee-owned company, which means you get access to a more stable consulting team supported by tools, data, and resources that could only be built by an organization with an exclusive focus on your needs."

And here is a Bogleheads page from their wiki:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Call...stment_returns

I think anyone needing explanations of finance topics should go to the Bogleheads wiki first. There is peer review of the pages, which improves the reliability of the page.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 07:00 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,394
Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff View Post
How about explaining what it is for those of us who never heard of this.
It shows how asset classes perform relatively to each other over time, and how dramatically and unexpectedly they can change positions. For those rebalancing, it shows how one year’s laggards can easily become next year’s leaders and vice versa.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 07:05 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
donheff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 10,257
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
It shows how asset classes perform relatively to each other over time, and how dramatically and unexpectedly they can change positions. For those rebalancing, it shows how one year’s laggards can easily become next year’s leaders and vice versa.
Thanks. That’s all I was asking for.
__________________
Every man is, or hopes to be, an Idler. -- Samuel Johnson
donheff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 07:27 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,394
It's very informative. For people who hesitate to rebalance because they fear selling winners and buying losers, it graphically illustrates how winning streaks usually come to an end after a couple of years or three, and how unpredictable relative performance between asset classes is.

I just look at the annual version though. It's a long term phenomenon.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 10:43 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 6,191
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
It's very informative. For people who hesitate to rebalance because they fear selling winners and buying losers, it graphically illustrates how winning streaks usually come to an end after a couple of years or three, and how unpredictable relative performance between asset classes is.

I just look at the annual version though. It's a long term phenomenon.
Yes. For many years I told people that I hated the quilt charts because they were a unique combination of incomprehensibility and ugliness.

Then I figured out that was exactly the point.
__________________
Ignoramus et ignorabimus
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 02:40 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,948
I've thought a few times that the results would make for a nifty prediction/game/poll.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 03:10 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,394
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
Yes. For many years I told people that I hated the quilt charts because they were a unique combination of incomprehensibility and ugliness.

Then I figured out that was exactly the point.
Yes, that is indeed the point.

For someone convinced that recent performance consistently predicts near future performance, hopefully it’s an eye opener.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 07:40 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,948
Edwin C. Callan founded the company. I find it interesting how a founder (Callan, Schwab, Bogle, etc.) still influences a company when they've given up the CEO role. Here is Ed Callan's obituary:
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/artic...es-3246064.php

From what I've been able to discover, Callan is an advisor to large pension funds. They measure performance and provide independent analysis to those who manage...

The periodic table is such a simple concept, and seems to be a visual milestone among the Bogleheads and others who buy the entire market and hold. Simultaneously it reinforces the sales talk of paid advisors who know how to follow the flow and discover nuggets of wealth.

One of the interesting patterns in the year end chart (https://www.callan.com/wp-content/up...Collection.pdf) is/was the extreme movement of Emerging Markets from top of the chart to bottom. Of course there are exceptions to this ranking pattern for EM in the past 20 years.

I sit on an AA of 50/50 and just ponder the bouncing tiles on the chart. YMMV.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 08:50 AM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 16,476
An outstanding illustration of sector/asset class rotation - and the importance of diversification/futility of timing (asset classes). That said, I'm not sure what value annual updates provide except to show it's still wise to diversify/avoid timing?
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 20% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 12:38 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,394
I find it interesting to look at what lagged and lead in recent years, so I always take a look. Just a big picture look. Not actionable other than perhaps to encourage/reinforce occasional rebalancing.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 08:20 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 5,130
Sorry, I don't register for much these days. Besides, it doesn't sound like the Periodic Table I recall but YMMV.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 05:39 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,948
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koolau View Post
Sorry, I don't register for much these days. Besides, it doesn't sound like the Periodic Table I recall but YMMV.
Here is the link to the 2019 year end table. Should be able to get there without an account...
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/up...Collection.pdf

The yearly table with just year-end performance rankings has certainly grown in size from 1-2 to almost 20 pages! And the original chart is still there, on page 2.

Apparently one does not need a free account to look, as I suggested in opening post. Sorry about that.
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 06:29 AM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,629
I find the chart especially interesting in down market years.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 07:40 AM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 5,130
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
Here is the link to the 2019 year end table. Should be able to get there without an account...
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/up...Collection.pdf

The yearly table with just year-end performance rankings has certainly grown in size from 1-2 to almost 20 pages! And the original chart is still there, on page 2.

Apparently one does not need a free account to look, as I suggested in opening post. Sorry about that.
Thanks! Got it.
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Callan Table of Periodic Investments - Monthly Update
Old 10-11-2020, 07:54 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: St. Paul
Posts: 1,851
Callan Table of Periodic Investments - Monthly Update

Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post



I sit on an AA of 50/50 and just ponder the bouncing tiles on the chart. YMMV.

Me too. “Don’t gamble- buy the casino.”
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 08:16 AM   #19
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Austin
Posts: 956
I've been fascinated by their quilt for years. It's a nice graphical representation to show how random the ordering of "winners" is each year. For those initially pondering their AA, especially those who care about short-term volatility, it's a powerful visual. For those who believe " nobody knows nuthin' " and therefore hold something like the Total Market, it provides some confirmation.

For some, however, the ordering isn't as important as the magnitude. That data is there in the quilt, but the visual picture painted is more about the ordering than it is about the magnitudes of returns. For those who can tolerate more short term volatility but who want to try and do more to maximize their long term returns, you'll get more information by using something like Portfoliovisualizer or Simba's spreadsheet.

Still, others have created alternatives to the Callan Quilt, such as this one on seeking-alpha which also graphically shows the magnitudes as well as the ordering. Scroll down a bit on the page and it's there. Definitely not as easy to read as the ordering-only Callan version, but the information is there.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/405...stment-returns

Here's another one that tries to do the same thing:
https://www.investmentaccountmanager...f-performance/

There are many roads to Dublin and there is no one-size-fits-all asset allocation. I'm a big backtester, but there are limits to its usefulness. There will never be enough data to ever find the "best" portfolio by looking backwards. So you're left with what is likely a decent range of choices, but with a heavy dose of philosophy on top of it to choose your path. For some, that philosophy leads them to a Jack Bogle style buy the whole market portfolio. For others, it could be any combination of US or International Stock, factors, non-traditional assets such as Gold and/or commodities, factors, real estate, etc. In the end, the only thing that matters is whether you're meeting your goals, not whether you've optimized with limited data and not whether you're following somebody else's idea of a great portfolio.
big-papa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-11-2020, 08:46 AM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 137
It shows the wisdom of John Bogle's "Buy the haystack".
frank2009 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Callan Periodic Table 2019 jazz4cash FIRE and Money 4 01-14-2020 12:48 PM
Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns CDRE Stock Picking and Market Strategy 52 04-17-2019 11:01 AM
Callan Table of Periodic Investment Returns FlaGator Stock Picking and Market Strategy 31 01-23-2018 07:07 PM
Periodic Table of Asset Class Results for 2007 samclem FIRE and Money 8 01-15-2007 08:52 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:16 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.