Calling the market bottom

[Big_Hitter]

I think they mean Jim Cramer.

I was being sardonic. Did you go long on Lehman when he recommended it as a "screaming buy"?

 

[marko]

I was being sardonic. Did you go long on Lehman when he recommended it as a "screaming buy"?

If I had, I wouldn't be boasting a $100K gain would I.

As I noted a few minutes earlier, what you do with Jim's advice is up to your own initiatives. I don't have any gripe against the guy; others may but that's ok too. As I said, I'm in the minority.

 

[kcowan]

Re Cramer: I vaguely recall he was studied and did cause a 3 day blip on his picks. After that 47% of the picks actually ended up ahead one year later. So blindly following him was just slightly worse than flipping a coin.

But in terms of being introduced to names to follow, he is a good source, especially for traders.

 

[audreyh1]

That is so annoying!!! When they have a big selloff in the last hour of an otherwise reversal day. Things were up and holding steady for most of the day, but that last hour of trading, and sellers came out of the woodwork.

 

[NW-Bound]

That is so annoying!!! When they have a big selloff in the last hour of an otherwise reversal day. Things were up and holding steady for most of the day, but that last hour of trading, and sellers came out of the woodwork.

So, do you think there's such a thing as too much "free market"?

 

[nash031]

Love the down 30-more-% predictions. Based on what fundamental flaw? Can't see that happening. More likely, IMO, it's a full-blown 15-20% correction and we slog on as always enjoying the brief little discount. In 20 years, you won't even notice the blip on the graph.

 

[dtbach]

Love the down 30-more-% predictions. Based on what fundamental flaw? Can't see that happening. More likely, IMO, it's a full-blown 15-20% correction and we slog on as always enjoying the brief little discount. In 20 years, you won't even notice the blip on the graph.

I agree with this. Probably won't even see it in 10 years on a graph.

 

[Moneygrubber]

Dawg im with u


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[NYEXPAT]

That is so annoying!!! When they have a big selloff in the last hour of an otherwise reversal day. Things were up and holding steady for most of the day, but that last hour of trading, and sellers came out of the woodwork.

It was actually one "mutual fund" throwing in the towel with a 3 billion $ trade.

 

[audreyh1]

It was actually one "mutual fund" throwing in the towel with a 3 billion $ trade.

Seriously? Can you elaborate?

I know in the past someone with a large position would come in during the last few minutes and slam the market indices. Seemed to happen all the time in 2008 and 2009, so I was wondering if that happened today.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I'll take 13725 as the bottom.

To the question of what's fundamentally broken to drive it down from current levels, it's quite possible we're seeing China go thru something akin to 2008. I'm no expert but they appear to have a massive debt problem and their shadow banking market geniuses found a way to slice and dice that debt thoughout the economy in a similar way that the CDO geniuses did here. China may be going thru something they can't simply buy their way out of (though their forex reserves are staggering).

 

[VFK57]

If you are more on conservative side of AA, then wait until the Dow drops to 12,000 or less in order to add to your equities.

 

[clifp]

I went back and looked at the DOW 2015 prediction thread.

There weren't a lot of bears.

My prediction was
"It is time for a pull back..
Dow 16,350
S&P 1910"

So with Dow at 16,385 I am hoping they close the market for the rest of the year so I can win..(Also all the puts I wrote would expire worthless)

 

[utrecht]

I predict that we hit the bottom today and there's a decent sized reversal. Not to the point of being up today, but being down significantly less than the 3.7% we are down premarket right now.

I was half right. I said the market would reverse significantly and put in the bottom on 8/24. It did reverse significantly from the gap down at the open, but the gap down was WAY worse than I thought and we ended down a tad more than the 3.7% I quoted which was where the futures were at the time.

I stick with my prediction that the bottom is already in.

 

[capjak]

Still think we will see it lower, expect Fed to raise rates by end of year, china to stop buying its market and etc....

 

[audreyh1]

I think retests are likely. That was a very sharp V shaped correction. The dust doesn't usually settle right away. We are entering a time when the market tends to have selloffs. I expect more up through about mid October. It doesn't mean it will find a lower bottom, necessarily, just that the recent lows will be likely tested, and whether they hold, or fail, who knows?

 

[kcowan]

What about all the people who have not got their August statements in the mail yet? Will that not trigger another leg down in September? Not everyone is on top of their portfolios on a daily basis....

 

[mrfeh]

I stick with my prediction that the bottom is already in.

+1

I'm surprised at all the Chicken Littles on the board.

 

[dtbach]

I think retests are likely. That was a very sharp V shaped correction. The dust doesn't usually settle right away. We are entering a time when the market tends to have selloffs. I expect more up through about mid October. It doesn't mean it will find a lower bottom, necessarily, just that the recent lows will be likely tested, and whether they hold, or fail, who knows?

This seems the most likely scenario. But then again, it might not be.

 

[Looking4Ward]

I'm pretty much convinced the big boys who control the market and don't make anything when it's not moving are simply setting the stage for a year end rally.

 

[audreyh1]

This seems the most likely scenario. But then again, it might not be.

Which is why I have a lot of qualifiers like "likely".

 

[audreyh1]

What about all the people who have not got their August statements in the mail yet? Will that not trigger another leg down in September? Not everyone is on top of their portfolios on a daily basis....

The volume from those individuals is probably not high enough to make a difference.

 

[petershk]

I predict that many people will say they don't predict because there's no way to know... But deep down they are

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[frayne]

I think we done hit the bottom and bounced !

 

[NW-Bound]

I predict that many people will say they don't predict because there's no way to know... But deep down they are

True that. I think they are afraid of being called a DMT.

I never try to predict how low or high the market can go. Too tough for me.

I try to sense only the market direction, and that's on a probability basis, meaning if it is more likely to be higher or lower, and not daily either but a month from now or a year. And I do not do that well either, else would have more money than I do now.