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Old 03-03-2022, 07:42 PM   #21
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Maybe that is why Putin started talking Nukes, he suddenly realized China is a big threat to him. Similar to how the pal of old Russia (the Nazi's) suddenly invaded Russia.
China as more people by far, better tech, and a far bigger economy than Russia. Russia is underpopulated for its size, and has vast amount of natural resources China could use. Why in the world would Russia be worried about China?
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Old 03-03-2022, 07:49 PM   #22
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China as more people by far, better tech, and a far bigger economy than Russia. Russia is underpopulated for its size, and has vast amount of natural resources China could use. Why in the world would Russia be worried about China?
The Chinese just recently cut a deal to buy natural gas from Russia for the next ten years. They are "buddies".
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Old 03-03-2022, 07:55 PM   #23
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My TD Ameritrade account informed that neither Buy nor Sell orders on any Russian securities are able to be accepted at this time…updates will be provided as they become available.
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Old 03-04-2022, 02:26 AM   #24
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I am curious why the etfs are being traded for so much more than NAV.
Anyone have a theory?

My thinking is moex is closed because Putin and his oligarchs want to figure out how to buy these company’s back for either oligarchs or the state for Pennies on the ruble so to speak.
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Interesting
Old 03-04-2022, 06:40 AM   #25
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Interesting

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You forgot China seeing the weakness of Russian forces with many stuck in Ukraine invades to capture the oil fields and other valuable stuff.
China does not worry about the West helping Russia.

Maybe that is why Putin started talking Nukes, he suddenly realized China is a big threat to him. Similar to how the pal of old Russia (the Nazi's) suddenly invaded Russia.

That's out of the box thinking - interesting.

I guess - the likes of Russia or America can be pushed around - there's a nuclear deterrent but everyone knows it won't be used so yes, perhaps China can in fact do that. I just wonder - when does Russia say - enough his enough, fire up a few bad boys and launch em over there.

Also someone asked - my broker is ETRADE.
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Old 03-04-2022, 08:25 PM   #26
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I am curious why the etfs are being traded for so much more than NAV.
Anyone have a theory?

My thinking is moex is closed because Putin and his oligarchs want to figure out how to buy these company’s back for either oligarchs or the state for Pennies on the ruble so to speak.
Because the NAV is meaningless as the underlying securities don't have a market. For a few days, only sell orders were allowed.

I haven't tried to play this game of roulette, but the underlying assets do have real oil and gas and some intrinsic value. Whether that means the equities have any value is another question. There are tons of ways that the stockholders (especially foreigners outside of Russia) get wiped out. I am bothered that government entities can just declare that they can't be traded. But the mentality seems to be that wiping out the value of American ownership (via RSX etc.) is a "good thing". Sort of like the mentality of pouring out Russian Vodka (that you already paid for) and for which ironically was made in Poland by someone who is an enemy of Putin.

In no way to I like or support what is going on in Ukraine. But I am fearful of the unintended consequences of what is going on. If I were a leader of a country, I would be looking VERY carefully at a) having alternatives to the $ for reserve currency b) allowing American companies to control technology infrastructure or other aspects of the country. c)Make sure my country's assets can't be seized by other countries.
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Old 03-04-2022, 09:34 PM   #27
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Because the NAV is meaningless as the underlying securities don't have a market. For a few days, only sell orders were allowed.

I haven't tried to play this game of roulette, but the underlying assets do have real oil and gas and some intrinsic value. Whether that means the equities have any value is another question. There are tons of ways that the stockholders (especially foreigners outside of Russia) get wiped out...
+1

Can they find a way to declare old shares worthless, and issue new shares that own all the existing assets? If you don't like it, you can go sue them.
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Old 03-04-2022, 10:46 PM   #28
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I suspect the OP is ignoring that with nuclear sanctions (particularly the Central Bank asset freezes), Russia is likely default in a month or two and there will not be much of an out for Russian companies on the Western exchanges, as the ruble even further collapses (after Russia uses what Central reserves it can use. Sequestering foreign currency held privately now is shoring up the ruble). I guess if the war is over in a week or two, the ruble might go back up from here, best case.

China did sign an agreement for oil recently, so there is that.

But you do you. Russian assets are now "cheap" and likely to get even cheaper, if they don't go bankrupt. Big if. Sherbank is now down to about a penny/share; my suspicion is that the banks will collapse and pull most of the rest of the economy down with them. If they survive, maybe GazProm or the other energy companies might survive, but my suspicion is Western investors will be wiped out. You are looking at a bleaker version of what might have happened here in '08 if the Feds/Congress had not interfered; I do not think the Russian Bank nor government has this ability, given the currency and economy, but miracles happen. Putin could take his marbles and go home to lift sanctions, particularly if the offensive continues to bog down.

Just my pennies worth, which is worth about what a Sherbank share is worth. Personally, I would wait to see whether the economy survives the next month or two. If shares double, then it might be worth throwing a small bit into the fire.
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Old 03-04-2022, 10:59 PM   #29
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I left out: I'm not sure how Western ETFs can trade when the Russian market is closed and remaining closed. If they take Ukraine, I suppose they will open their markets, but the closure tells you most of what you need to know. It is not a sign of internal confidence, for sure.
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:02 AM   #30
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I didn’t realize that there is a category of countries below “emerging market status.”

“Index giant S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday it is removing all stocks listed and/or domiciled in Russia from its benchmarks in light of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, further isolating the nation from the global economy.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/sp-d...et-status.html
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Old 03-05-2022, 09:34 AM   #31
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I didn’t realize that there is a category of countries below “emerging market status.”

“Index giant S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday it is removing all stocks listed and/or domiciled in Russia from its benchmarks in light of the country’s invasion of Ukraine, further isolating the nation from the global economy.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/04/sp-d...et-status.html

I have seen Russian market called "uninvestible".

About a country stock market being "non-emerging", I see a similarity with some of the seeds that I plant. I am still waiting for the beans I planted almost 2 weeks ago to emerge.

Worse, some seedlings emerged, then succumbed to fungus or blight. That's the state of Russian stocks.
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Old 03-05-2022, 12:33 PM   #32
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^^^^ Time to reprint those 1970s bumper stickers, “Eat More Beans. America Needs the Gas.”
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Old 03-05-2022, 12:50 PM   #33
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The premium / discount ratio for ERUS has now increased to 13,175.14%, according to the fund web page. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/...sia-capped-etf

Safe to assume any ETF that had Russian holding is going to have an unusually high premium / discount ratio for the next couple of years, and this will distort all the analytics.
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Old 03-05-2022, 07:31 PM   #34
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The premium / discount ratio for ERUS has now increased to 13,175.14%, according to the fund web page. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/...sia-capped-etf

Safe to assume any ETF that had Russian holding is going to have an unusually high premium / discount ratio for the next couple of years, and this will distort all the analytics.
Looking at the details, it indicates that the total fund NAV is under $1 million US$. ($834K). The fund has about 920K in Cash (in us $). Most/all of the Russian assets are marked at 0. As I stated before, the NAV calculation is meaningless. I would buy this hand over foot if I could purchase at any where near NAV.
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Old 03-08-2022, 04:02 PM   #35
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sanctions on banking system block transactions with ruble/dollar exchange. I got in under the wire, buying some extremely cheap shares on a gamble that this will all blow over in a year or so. Next day after trade closed i saw the sanctions posted inside schwab.
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Old 03-10-2022, 08:10 AM   #36
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Financial Times reports that PIMCO has a big stake in Russian sovereign debt.

https://www.ft.com/content/8d5bfe45-...s_yahoo/auddev
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Old 03-10-2022, 10:31 AM   #37
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Financial Times reports that PIMCO has a big stake in Russian sovereign debt.

https://www.ft.com/content/8d5bfe45-...s_yahoo/auddev
"It usually takes a while for the bodies to float to the surface".

(one of my investment philosophies)

ETA: The law of unintended consequences. We have had severe market disruptions.
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Old 03-10-2022, 11:15 AM   #38
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sanctions on banking system block transactions with ruble/dollar exchange. I got in under the wire, buying some extremely cheap shares on a gamble that this will all blow over in a year or so. Next day after trade closed i saw the sanctions posted inside schwab.
My dear brother (RIP) bought a bunch of GM shares in 2008 when the price went below $1, thinking the government wouldn't let GM fail so the stock would recover and he'd make a decent profit.

Well, he was right the government wouldn't let GM fail, but new shares were issued after the bankrupcy and the old shares became near worthless (or maybe worth $0.50 per share a couple of years later).

That was a cautionary tale for me.
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Old 03-10-2022, 05:48 PM   #39
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Russia intends to seize assets abandoned by western companies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...xiting-country
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Old 03-11-2022, 07:52 AM   #40
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My dear brother (RIP) bought a bunch of GM shares in 2008 when the price went below $1, thinking the government wouldn't let GM fail so the stock would recover and he'd make a decent profit.

Well, he was right the government wouldn't let GM fail, but new shares were issued after the bankrupcy and the old shares became near worthless (or maybe worth $0.50 per share a couple of years later).

That was a cautionary tale for me.
Those were interesting times. I had a few people ask me about buying GM, Ford, Chrysler. First, I suggested that they only buy the strongest of the three (F). Secondly, I suggested that they only buy debt, the idea being that if they did go bankrupt, the equity would be wiped out.

Was that the suggestion to get the most levered outcome? No. But preservation of capital is (in my mind) most important.

I bought a Ford preferred selling for 20 cents on the dollar. It had a 7% coupon, so at the discount was yielding 35%.

Ford didn't go bankrupt, and paid me my 35% annually for a few years. Then they called the notes at par. So about 100% return on holding plus 5x on the called notes. Was that as good as buying the common? I don't know, I never figured it out...but I was happy with the result.

p.s. one of the people asking me bought GM common, and his investment was wiped out.
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