Chart of the Day

[Aerides]

whatever anyone is saying about oil is out of date by the time they finish typing.

[Running_Man]

[nap470]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man

This chart totally makes sense. People are staying at home, ordering online...up 8.4%. Gardening and doing home projects...slightly down. Almost representative of a basic needs chart.

[target2019]

More narration about the retail sales drop here:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/re...mw_share_email

There is also a chart for month-by-month change going back to 2008.

[Running_Man]

Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.

Thanks for posting, time for that money sloshing through the system to be reflected in real things?

I'm loving this 10 year FCX chart: http://tos.mx/ihjeQPB

I am long FCX @ average cost = $9.18, but it's been a long hard road until recently.

ETA:Uploaded as image.

[Brat]

I took a look at metals ETFs as I believe that cooper, CFX stock in particular, will be very profitable for the miners. I wish I had the nerve to buy one but when I chart them they just too volatile.

Anyone with wire should protect it like gold!

[target2019]

I had a commodities fund (like BCOM I think) say 12-15 years ago (in 401(k)). I baled on it, though. Never did understand the commodities basket approach. I'll put more effort into that.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Thanks for posting, time for that money sloshing through the system to be reflected in real things? I'm loving this 10 year FCX chart: http://tos.mx/ihjeQPB I am long FCX @ average cost = $9.18, but it's been a long hard road until recently. ETA:Uploaded as image.

FCX is also one of my long-term holdings, and recently has given me a decent gain. I also have AA, and good old X, but these two were beaten down so bad that I am still in the red despite their recent rise. I also have NGLOY and BHP, and am in the black there. Almost forgot the ETFs XME and XLB, the latter having some metal mining components. Most of these holdings, I have held since 2000, but add or reduce from time to time as market condition varies.

[NW-Bound]

Besides the rise in industrial metal prices (copper, iron, aluminum, zinc, tin), I also noted that phosphate used for fertilizer has been going up. And that is reflected in the price of my shares of phosphate miners.

Is this the sign of inflation rearing its ugly head? Too much printed money, and not enough people working to produce the "stuff"? I will just raise these questions for people to ponder.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Besides the rise in industrial metal prices (copper, iron, aluminum, zinc, tin), I also noted that phosphate used for fertilizer has been going up. And that is reflected in the price of my shares of phosphate miners. Is this the sign of inflation rearing its ugly head? Too much printed money, and not enough people working to produce the "stuff"? I will just raise these questions for people to ponder.

If you were investing new funds in this area, what would you nibble on (other than FCX). Individual stock? ETF? If so, what?

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded If you were investing new funds in this area, what would you nibble on (other than FCX). Individual stock? ETF? If so, what?

I don't have any insight into which company would be the best winner in this space. Back in the period between 2003 and 2008, we went through a period where commodities like industrial metal, fertilizer, and construction material prices went through the roof. I just made myself a mixture of all the big names in each of these specialized sectors in order to diversify away individual company risks. It was a tide that lifted all boats, and they all did well, some more than others. I made money overall, and that was all I cared.

Anyone can do a bit of a search to find these names. I remember back then making good money on phosphate producers when the price of phosphate went from $50/ton to $400/ton. It was said that China farmers used a lot more fertilizers than their Western counterparts to maximize the yield of their limited arable land. If that was true, then why did phosphate price drop to as low as $70 recently? I don't know. I sold the stocks when the stock price tumbled along with the Great Recession, and looked for something else. The price of phosphate has slowly climbed back to $82.

There was a housing bubble around the world at the same time the US was developing a subprime time bomb. There was a shortage of building material, and I remember making money buying Lafarge, a cement producer.

Yes, I just sprinkled money on companies in these hot sectors, and made decent money. It was nothing like people did recently with Tesla and other hot stocks, but I managed to beat the S&P. I was not 100% in these hot sectors either, only overweighed in them.

PS. I mentioned XME for industrial metals earlier. For copper alone, there's COPX.

[DrRoy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.

That seems like a very good sign to me for the worldwide economy.

[target2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrRoy That seems like a very good sign to me for the worldwide economy.

Yes, there is indication this bodes well for economies unless there is another global boogie-man around the corner!

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?...t=&et=&rid=242

[Running_Man]

Dollar set to run into trouble at year end if Julian Bridgen dollar model is correct.

[kgtest]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Dollar set to run into trouble at year end if Julian Bridgen dollar model is correct.

And here I got lots of cash. Shoot.

[Running_Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Multi Year Commodities breaking out of long term channel.

Note in the 4 months since I posted this the index has increased to 90.36 a new 52 week high and right at the 2018 peak which forced the FED to start raising interest rates. In 2007 just before the housing bubble popped it was at 240.00 so commodities are still down a long way over 14 years. But we are at a key inflection point, where the FED has acted in the past.

[Running_Man]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Running_Man Note in the 4 months since I posted this the index has increased to 90.36 a new 52 week high and right at the 2018 peak which forced the FED to start raising interest rates. In 2007 just before the housing bubble popped it was at 240.00 so commodities are still down a long way over 14 years. But we are at a key inflection point, where the FED has acted in the past.

We have now broken the 2018 Peak and are at a new 5 year high at 92.74. Copper today is 100% higher than a year ago, Nickel prices have risen 12% in the last week and Lumber Prices are 484% above a year ago and 250% above the previous 5 year high. White Whole Chicken breasts are up 104% in the last year and home prices average 27% higher. Fortunately per the official government statistics inflation has only increased 2.6% over last year.

[target2019]

We're in the early phase of a business cycle according to Fidelity (https://institutional.fidelity.com/a...569_40890.html). Commodities and materials pick up, correct?

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by target2019 We're in the early phase of a business cycle according to Fidelity (https://institutional.fidelity.com/a...569_40890.html). Commodities and materials pick up, correct?

We are in the early phases of something, that's for sure. I'm feeling that I haven't been nearly aggressive enough at hedging for "transitory" inflation. This is coming from someone with about 7% of my assets in TIPS/inflation adjusted iBonds, about 3+% in precious metals (funds and some physical), and another 1% or so in things like food/energy/copper stocks, and 40+ acres of mostly hardwoods land.