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06-10-2022, 02:44 PM
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#321
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
So does this now have a 2% Yield to Maturity?
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You can buy it but will have a bit of trouble selling it.
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06-10-2022, 02:47 PM
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#322
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
So does this now have a 2% Yield to Maturity?
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Good point about the YTM!
I just computed it to be 2.36%.
Buy, buy, buy...
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-10-2022, 04:31 PM
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#323
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Nice!
And this after only 2 years. Still has 98 more years to go.
PS. Did we find out who the bond holders are? Who in their right mind would lock up their money for 100 years in exchange of a guarantee of 0% interest for that long? They were expecting 100 years of deflation?
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Primary owner are passive bond funds. The issuance of 2.2 Billion was oversubscribed by 10 billion dollars in requests from "investors" Primarily passive bond funds, pension funds and hedge funds to be used as a hedge againt falling rates. Because they are govenment bonds, Austria has a total of about 10 billion in 100 year bonds, pension funds in Austria by law are required to hold them.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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06-10-2022, 06:35 PM
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#324
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man
Primary owner are passive bond funds. The issuance of 2.2 Billion was oversubscribed by 10 billion dollars in requests from "investors" Primarily passive bond funds, pension funds and hedge funds to be used as a hedge againt falling rates. Because they are govenment bonds, Austria has a total of about 10 billion in 100 year bonds, pension funds in Austria by law are required to hold them.
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Well, if they don't have to sell, then they don't lose. It's just that in 100 years, their bonds will be worth less than 1c.
I wonder if they have to do mark-to-market accounting. That hurts.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-10-2022, 08:14 PM
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#325
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Well, if they don't have to sell, then they don't lose. It's just that in 100 years, their bonds will be worth less than 1c.
I wonder if they have to do mark-to-market accounting. That hurts.
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I suspect they do what Ishares did which is to sell the shares buy another long term then buy them back at current market price to hide the loss. They are showing 1 million in 100 year Australian bonds - probably 10 million originally or about 1/2 percent of the total issuance and yet show only net loss of $7,000. Must account for bonds on FIFO method.
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But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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Microstrategy on way to zero
06-12-2022, 08:38 PM
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#326
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Microstrategy on way to zero
This is a 5 year zero interest bond convertible into Microstratgey stock at 1200. Problem is bitcoin is collapsing, their actual sales of software has negative comparison and had a large loss last qtr. Things are getting real in the finance world and many companies like Microstrategy were set up to take advantag of low or zero interest rates, which is the same as printing money.. With 2.4 billion in debt and 500million annual in sales @ 10% interest on their loans MSTR would exceed 50% of revenues to meet interest payment. Since the price of bitcoin has dropped 20% since it's March Qtr the loss this qtr is 1,2 billion and rising. When the value of bitcoin drops below 21K and they get margin call, they will have to go all in on all their bitcoin or sell to raise cash and pay off debt. Likelihood of total wipeout is high with this one but if you look for a turn around this bond will be better than the stock.
__________________
But then what do I really know?
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/why-i-believe-we-are-about-to-embark-on-a-historic-bull-market-run-101268.html
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06-13-2022, 09:00 AM
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#327
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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The only thing I know about MicroStrategy is that its CEO is pro Bitcoin and loaded up on it.
Today, Monday 6/13/2022, Bitcoin is down -18%, MSTR down -26%.
Bankruptcy coming?
Again, I don't know much about MSTR other than it's a software company. Why not concentrate on writing software, instead of speculating on nebulous assets? Live by the sword, die by the sword.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-13-2022, 10:14 AM
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#328
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I just looked up some facts out of curiosity.
Quote:
MicroStrategy has vowed never to sell any of the approximately 130,000 bitcoin it has in its possession...
At the end of the first quarter, MicroStrategy said the acquisition cost was $30,700 per bitcoin, net of fees and expenses...
...loans accounted for $2.4 billion of its $4 billion in bitcoin purchases...
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BTC is at 23,500 at this moment. The loss is ($30700-$23500)*130000 = $936 million.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-13-2022, 11:01 AM
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#329
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I just looked up some facts out of curiosity.
BTC is at 23,500 at this moment. The loss is ($30700-$23500)*130000 = $936 million.
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The value at Qtr end was $34,841. What you don't know is how they carry the inventory, but any inventory purchsed above that price needed to be marked down. MSTR uses original cost basis. For calculating loss the average cost is useless, as a few low cost coins brings down the average. Using closing cost and average cost MSTR would have had no loss but had 200 million. So the change from 34,841 to 23,500 or 11K per coin means the loss must be over a billion dollars. As this is greater than the 978K of owners equity, that would mean . Wonder what their loan covenants are. After this quarter their net tangible net assets will be nearly 3 billion dollars negative. They once were in the range of companies in the 400-450 in the S&P500 like Clorox or Domino's.
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06-13-2022, 11:35 AM
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#330
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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CPI vs. FFR
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06-18-2022, 01:59 PM
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#331
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,948
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I hope Running Man doesn't mind me posting a chart. I've been re-reading Michael Lewis's The big short book. In chapter 4 he mentions Eisman speaking with Ivy Zelman, at the time a housing market analyst at Credit Suisse. Zelman was discussing the ratio of median home price to income measurements. By late 2004 it had risen nationally to 4:1. As the book states:
Quote:
Historically, in the Unite Sates, it ran around 3:1; by late 2004, it had risen nationally to 4:1. "All these people were saying it was nearly as high in some other countries, " says Zelman. "But the problem wasn't just that it was four to one. In Los Angeles it was ten to one and in Miami, eight-point-five to one. And then you coupled that with the buyers. They weren't real buyers. They were speculators".
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The book goes on to state:
Quote:
The number of For Sale signs began rising in mid-2005 and never stopped.
In the summer of 2006, the Case-Shiller index of house prices peaked, and house prices across the country began to fall".
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Being curious, I decided to look up the current median price to income chart: https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-...-income-ratio/
We are above the 2006 peak...
This article shows some city level data: https://constructioncoverage.com/res...me-ratios-2021
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06-18-2022, 02:21 PM
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#332
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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I had not seen that and it is omnious.
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06-19-2022, 10:31 AM
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#333
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
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Chart of the Day
I’m going to choose not to worry about housing, since that is looking in the rear view mirror to anticipate the next recession. Banks are shored up and we haven’t heard about strippers qualifying for apartment buildings.
From where I sit, it’s helicopter money being sponged up out of the stock market and tech prices returning to earth but maybe we’ll know for sure when Michael Lewis’ writes his next book about this period.
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06-19-2022, 10:38 AM
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#334
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
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Good data. It shows people never learn.
I keep reminding myself not to follow the crowd. It's harder to do than one imagines.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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06-19-2022, 11:44 AM
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#335
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,948
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
Good data. It shows people never learn.
I keep reminding myself not to follow the crowd. It's harder to do than one imagines.
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I would like to see a (median house * mortgage rate)/median income kind of chart. I think it would show the real pain point (or not) in terms of house payment for the typical house as a percentage of income.
Anyone know of one? I know "we" could construct one given a table of median house prices, mortgage rates and income data. But I am lazy and hope that it has already been done.
My thought is that for a while increases in housing were offset by lowered mortgage rates (and increasing incomes), but now both median price and the rate factor have been increasing much faster than median income.
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06-19-2022, 01:49 PM
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#336
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Lexington
Posts: 714
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Yea those charts match my expectations exactly for the near future. The west is due for a 30-40% drop, the south/east coast 25-35%, and the midwest 20-25%. The floor seems to be falling out at this point because all the liquidity is disappearing, the paperwork for backlogged evictions/foreclosures finally going through after the moratoriums, on top of mortgage rates shooting up at a speed only seen in the 70's (without the real income to offset that existed in the 70's, which is somewhat terrifying). While many can sit tight and not sell during a period when buyers dry up, it is inevitable that many other people will have to move due to unavoidable life events (e.g. work, family, and health).
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06-20-2022, 01:54 PM
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#337
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,552
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
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I was just going to post the same chart.
Is it any wonder there's been an insatiable demand for subsidized low income/affordable housing over the past 4 or 5 years.
What goes up.............................
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"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast"
Shown @ The End Of The Movie 'Runaway Train'
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07-26-2022, 08:48 AM
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#338
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBLT01005
Something happened in 2020 to increase the checking deposits of the richest 1% of the country by 700% in one year, that seems fair.
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07-26-2022, 08:56 AM
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#339
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,656
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The unknown of the pandemic caused a flight to cash, I suspect.
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07-26-2022, 02:24 PM
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#340
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,842
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational
The unknown of the pandemic caused a flight to cash, I suspect.
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The value of stocks and bonds are both higher by an order of magnitude than the amount of cash. The ratio of stocks to total assets is the highest in the history of the United States held by the top 1%. Stock value for the top 1% went up 5X the cash value
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/rich...alth-2021.html
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