China -> Taiwan

[explanade]

China depends on a strong economy too.

So they will be hurt by disruptions to global trade.

If the US and Europe decides to impose sanctions and really restrict trade, it would hurt everyone.

In fact, there might be a revolt by citizens if products become scarce and more expensive.

China supposedly has a house of cards in the domestic real estate market So economic disruption could cause turmoil with domestic politics there too.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade China depends on a strong economy too. So they will be hurt by disruptions to global trade. If the US and Europe decides to impose sanctions and really restrict trade, it would hurt everyone. In fact, there might be a revolt by citizens if products become scarce and more expensive. China supposedly has a house of cards in the domestic real estate market So economic disruption could cause turmoil with domestic politics there too.

As pointed out, it's clear that China would likely take several "hits" economically if they invade. BUT, they will factor that in and eventually decide the "moral" and economic effects will be worth whatever hits they take. They never say "ready, fire, aim."

[itsme2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade China depends on a strong economy too. So they will be hurt by disruptions to global trade. If the US and Europe decides to impose sanctions and really restrict trade, it would hurt everyone. In fact, there might be a revolt by citizens if products become scarce and more expensive. China supposedly has a house of cards in the domestic real estate market So economic disruption could cause turmoil with domestic politics there too.

Would you believe such disruptions/sanctions will only affect China?

How did Russia fare wrt sanctions, as compared to European countries, after the war broke out last year?

[nototheman]

For however uncertain the markets are, a strong historical trend: China will succumb to it's many pressures and enter into an age of humiliation despite all they had going for them. Xi and his cronies will crash the whole country into the ground on a wave of chauvinistic nationalism. Call it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Bottom line, China has no real military, economic, or political advantage that the US doesn't make up for tenfold. Forget the propaganda about their Belt & Roads, AI programs, and green initiatives, it's all a lie. They have no credibility. Nor a "master plan" like some fear, they are totally reactionary. And sloppy.

There will be collateral damage for sure. But the global community will eventually heal, as manufacturing continues moving to Mexico, Vietnam, India, etc. Personally I'm going to ride it out without making any adjustments, keeping the great bulk of my assets in the market.

[frayne]

Quote:

Originally Posted by nototheman Bottom line, China has no real military, economic, or political advantage that the US doesn't make up for tenfold. Forget the propaganda about their Belt & Roads, AI programs, and green initiatives, it's all a lie. They have no credibility. Nor a "master plan" like some fear, they are totally reactionary. And sloppy.

I wouldn't be so quick to believe it's all a lie and the biggest mistake any nation can make is to underestimate its adversary. China has demonstrated a pretty decent ability to copy and produce goods and Xi and his party aren't going to let their economy backslide too much. I think the reality is we both need each other at least to a degree anyway. Not to mention the world is much better off if we can all get along and conduct regular commerce.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by frayne I wouldn't be so quick to believe it's all a lie and the biggest mistake any nation can make is to underestimate its adversary. China has demonstrated a pretty decent ability to copy and produce goods and Xi and his party aren't going to let their economy backslide too much. I think the reality is we both need each other at least to a degree anyway. Not to mention the world is much better off if we can all get along and conduct regular commerce.

Yeah, I have no way of evaluating the Chinese military, but the "stories" make it seem at least part of their military is fairly advanced.

In any case, keep in mind, they have 100 million to 200 million "spare" men who could become an army at some point. Think of it as guys with no girls and nothing better to do on a Saturday night than go to war. They wouldn't even have to be good. Their only limiter would be transportation.

[Midpack]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mf15 Very easy to spread the USA thin.

+1. We’ve wasted trillions over the past 30 years with almost nothing to show for it. I’d love to explain, but Porky wouldn’t approve…

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Midpack +1. We’ve wasted trillions over the past 30 years with almost nothing to show for it. I’d love to explain, but Porky wouldn’t approve…

Yeah, wish we could discuss it, but I prefer my bacon with lettuce and mayo.

[Closet_Gamer]

I'm not planning on doing anything in particular to hedge a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Other than maintaining a sensible AA and ensuring that my essential expenses are well below my SWA, not sure there is much one can do. The global economic impacts of even a failed invasion are too big to really measure.

Realistically, the US cannot prevent China from taking Taiwan anymore than China could prevent the US from taking Cuba. Geography and logistics are just too against it.

If China really wants Taiwan - consequences be damned - they will take it. Question is more whether the rest of Asia (and India) will line up against them in order prevent repeats of the same thing elsewhere.