Quote:
Originally Posted by freedom2022
There were posts about commodities a while back, mostly about diversifications.
With current situation, it is a different ball game.
I own Power Shares DB Commodity Index Tracking, DBC, for a while as a hedge against inflation.
It went side way for a while. Now, it is rising up very fast.
Anybody invest in any commodities etf?
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No. I've looked at commodity future ETF's and MF's in the past but their volatility has been so incredibly high that I could never make them make sense as an addition to my portfolio, unless I had some foolproof way to market time it, which I don't.
Source: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Simb...ng_spreadsheet
They did well during the early 70's when inflation was high and the 73/74 bear market, but pretty poorly in 75/76 when stocks recovered for a couple of years.
And when they go south, they can sometimes really go south.
1998 down -36% when Total Stock was up 23%
2001 down -32% when Total Stock was down -11%
2008 down -47% when Total Stock was down -37%
2014 down -35% when stocks were up 13%
2015 down -34% when stocks at about 0%
Because of this I've opted not to chase commodity futures. If I did decide to take such a chance it would be in a pretty small dose at which point it likely wouldn't end up doing much for my portfolio anyway.. The Ray Dalio All-Seasons portfolio is one such example with 7.5% each to commodity futures and Gold.
https://portfoliocharts.com/portfoli...ons-portfolio/
Again, a low dosage, if any, is supported by some of the data available in the Simba spreadsheet.
Total Stock Market and Commodity futures have had almost 0 correlation in the long run (Analyze Series Tab), which makes it a potential diversifier.
However, from 1970-2021:
TSM (total US Stock) has had a CAGR of 11.12% with a standard deviation of 17.21%
Commodity Futures has had a CAGR of 5.75% with a standard deviation of 24.87%
Correlation of commodity futures to inflation over this time period was about 0.44
So lower long term returns with higher volatility don't bode well for its inclusion in a buy-and-hold type of portfolio, in my opinion.
Cheers
Big-Papa