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If you want defensive... why not just go with a conventional AA but increase the amount in bonds and cash.... same success rate but less volatiity.

Because the income from 1,000 plus companies is essentially inexhaustible for my lifetime and also self correcting in terms of inflation, and currency fluctuations (I wouldn't be surprised if dollar reserve currency status declines in my life time).
 
Just took a look and its a combined 1,303 companies with VHDYX and VIHAX.

Just some info on these two funds for those not familiar with them.

The algorithm takes the entire large and mid cap sectors and sorts them by div yield. It then takes the top 50% highest div yield of this group and then owns those by market cap weight. There must be some other steps in the process not mentioned as the index composition between large cap and mid cap is similar to the total market index. Also, REITs are excluded from the index.

Anyway, the best benchmark to compare this to is the Large Cap Value Index, and these two div focused indexes have a good track record of outperforming that benchmark.

Anyway, the end result is an index with a 1% or so higher yield than the S&P 500 and a similar div growth rate.

Also, my own preference is to split 50/50 between the US and foreign. I would do much better on recent/current data if I simply went 100% US, but I choose not to do that because that is a riskier long term strategy IMHO.
 
:LOL: You must have missed this one:

(emphasis mine).

@running_man is a crackpot.

I have posted this link to my favorite internet cartoon before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Internet_dog.jpg

So it is your contention these colleges KNOW their endowment funds run by EFH Nobel prize winners cannot exceed market returns through active investing, despite the fact they have done so for 20-30 years yet continue to do so because of what reason?
 
Running_Man, what does your number of indexes have to do with anything? Do you have a source? If that number is accurate, I'd assume it includes a large number of sector funds, which is not what we are talking about. And why would it matter if there is a "Total US Market" passive index fund from multiple houses (Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, etc ), if they all track closely?

The relevant question is the apples-apples comparison of a passive broad-based stock index fund versus a stock picker.

Your response looks a lot like the diversion tactics I see on the the EV and Renewable Energy threads. It makes your argument look weak.

-ERD50

https://www.ft.com/content/9ad80998-fed5-11e7-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

I was ASKED the question if I find stock pickers cannot beat passive index investing relevant. My original post was only to the OP in actually answering the question he proposed. Once you become a passive index investor every single person has their own personal index they compare to, and that is not relevant to how I am investing, insults from Old_Shooter are besides the point.

As Warren Buffet himself says "Over the years, I've often been asked for investment advice, and in the process of answering I've learned a good deal about human behavior. My regular recommendation has been a low-cost S&P 500 index fund," Buffett wrote.

"To their credit, my friends who possess only modest means have usually followed my suggestion. I believe, however, that none of the mega-rich individuals, institutions or pension funds has followed that same advice when I've given it to them." Of course Warren himself does not follow that advice.

I have frequently posted my ideas here and almost always on the STOCK PICKING FORUM, yet I constantly see references to Fama or EFH on indexing posted to those threads and how this is not possible or how it is a bad strategy, why do I want to go bankrupt.

I never go to passive investing threads and speak negatively to individuals who invest this way, yet apparently passive investors, who cannot possible understand why they are investing other than stocks always go up and are the best solution, feel they are vastly superior in investing style and feel a need to denigrate anyone that does not follow that advice. That too is irrelevant.

Indeed perhaps the entire reason for a stock picking forum on this website only exists so passive investors can insult active investors and this website is not relevant.
 
+1 to what RM said.

As far as I can tell, this thread isn’t about index investing. Why go there?

If you’re not interested in helping the OP, then move on.

Personally, I appreciate RM’s posts, along with other posters here that don’t invest in index funds. I also tend to think they probably do at least as well as investing in indexes.

And the “research” that shows index investing is superior. Maybe. Does this also include all the people that invest and are completely clueless about money (aka, they carry credit card debt, etc).

I think we can all agree that there are good investors in this world that know what they are doing. I can think of a few on this forum, in addition to the more famous ones, like Buffett/Munger.

Oh, and this is coming from someone who is an index investor.

But I still want to hear from the RMs of the world and it’s nice to read their opinions. I would be disappointed if they choose not to participate in the future here because of these responses.
 
So it is your contention these colleges KNOW their endowment funds run by EFH Nobel prize winners cannot exceed market returns through active investing, despite the fact they have done so for 20-30 years yet continue to do so because of what reason?
Sorry, I do not debate with crackpots or debate crackpot theories. I am with @pb4uski and will probably just put you on my "ignore" list.
 
OP here.

The advice given to my original question has been great and very helpful. As originally stated and reiterated. I'm not interested in passive investing. I'm not saying it is wrong to use that method, just that I don't want to go down that road for my own personal reasons.

With that in mind there have been many people on this ER.org who have used other methods of investing that are far more interesting to me and I would like to learn more about them. Unfortunately, as is often the case those with alternatives to the passive route are shouted down and insulted, much to the detriment of those who want to learn about the alternative strategies.

Rental real estate is another area often shouted down as being stupid, but many have made and continue to make great returns in that semi-passive activity.

Again for those that can help, and those that have helped thank you.
 
Luck_Club,

You might find this useful:

https://www.dividendinvestor.com/preferred-stocks-qualified-distributions/

They keep a list of all the preferred stocks with qualified dividends. You could build a nice higher yield portfolio with that as a piece of it. Also muni bond CEFs are nice. I like the ETF XMPT which you could also just use as a CEF screener and pick individual ones out of it opportunistically.
 
Sorry, I do not debate with crackpots or debate crackpot theories. I am with @pb4uski and will probably just put you on my "ignore" list.
There's a lot of linear, run of the mill, investment thinking on this site. That's all good. I'm a simple index investor myself. However I quite like RMs provocative idea, and don't think it crackpot at all. It IS interesting that many endowments can go out and beat the indexes, yet the college professors say it can't be done. Might be lots of good reasons like access to timber investments etc. But it's an ironic insight. Might be just because the great unwashed are better off with indexes.

Just like Buffett. He beats every index, but still advises us to buy an index fund.
 
OP here.

The advice given to my original question has been great and very helpful. As originally stated and reiterated. I'm not interested in passive investing. I'm not saying it is wrong to use that method, just that I don't want to go down that road for my own personal reasons. ...

Can you explain those 'personal reasons'? It's hard to know how to respond helpfully w/o knowing what your goals/restrictions are.

For an investment, the only reasons I can see for one strategy over another is to balance potential reward versus potential risk/volatility. Is there something else?

For any decision/strategy in life, if we are serious, we always ask "compared to what?" If I want a car with good mpg, I just don't say "I like this number, I'm not going to compare it to anything else".

... Unfortunately, as is often the case those with alternatives to the passive route are shouted down and insulted, much to the detriment of those who want to learn about the alternative strategies.

Rental real estate is another area often shouted down as being stupid, but many have made and continue to make great returns in that semi-passive activity.

...

I think you are overstating it. I haven't seen anyone come out and say land-lording or stock picking is stupid, or are shouted down. But people do challenge these claims, and sometimes the answers are rather convoluted or diversionary and defensive.



... I was ASKED the question if I find stock pickers cannot beat passive index investing relevant. My original post was only to the OP in actually answering the question he proposed. Once you become a passive index investor every single person has their own personal index they compare to, and that is not relevant to how I am investing, .....

Sorry, I'm lost on that response. The passive investors here almost always refer to the handful of big, broad-based passive index funds. Things like VTI, BND, etc. It has nothing to do with X million index funds on the market, many of which I assume are sector funds. Not relevant at all to most of us.


... As Warren Buffet himself says "Over the years, I've often been asked for investment advice, and in the process of answering I've learned a good deal about human behavior. My regular recommendation has been a low-cost S&P 500 index fund," Buffett wrote.

"To their credit, my friends who possess only modest means have usually followed my suggestion. I believe, however, that none of the mega-rich individuals, institutions or pension funds has followed that same advice when I've given it to them." ...

And how have Buffet's friends done with that approach? Have the beat an equivalent AA passive approach?


... I have frequently posted my ideas here and almost always on the STOCK PICKING FORUM, yet I constantly see references to Fama or EFH on indexing posted to those threads and how this is not possible or how it is a bad strategy, why do I want to go bankrupt.

I never go to passive investing threads and speak negatively to individuals who invest this way, yet apparently passive investors, who cannot possible understand why they are investing other than stocks always go up and are the best solution, feel they are vastly superior in investing style and feel a need to denigrate anyone that does not follow that advice. That too is irrelevant.

Indeed perhaps the entire reason for a stock picking forum on this website only exists so passive investors can insult active investors and this website is not relevant.

Has anyone here seriously told you you will go bankrupt with stock picking? I think some of you get overly-sensitive to honest, meaningful challenges, and start imagining things.

But if you are not willing to measure against a passive approach, what's the point? It makes it look like you have something to hide. We are all here to learn (hopefully). If I see a stock picking approach that looks like a winner, I'm interested. But like I said before, it needs context, it needs a comparison to other, easily implemented approaches.

Is that unreasonable?

-ERD50
 
There's a lot of linear, run of the mill, investment thinking on this site. That's all good. I'm a simple index investor myself. However I quite like RMs provocative idea, and don't think it crackpot at all. It IS interesting that many endowments can go out and beat the indexes, yet the college professors say it can't be done. Might be lots of good reasons like access to timber investments etc. But it's an ironic insight. Might be just because the great unwashed are better off with indexes.

Actually, more and more pension and endowment funds are going wholly or partially passive. This is quite remarkable if you think about it because to recommend a passive strategy a fund manager is essentially admitting that he is not skilled enough to beat the market, hence putting his big paycheck at risk. it's no wonder that the paradigm shift is slow.

As I said, I'm not going to debate crackpot ideas but your instinct is correct -- large pension and endowment funds invest in far more than just the stock market, so their results really can't be understood without a lot of detail.

Just like Buffett. He beats every index, but still advises us to buy an index fund.
Actually, IIRC it has been at least six years since he has beaten his benchmark.

If you are interested in this, read "The Snowball." It is his authorized biography. Of course it is a little bit flattering but what you will find out is that his big successes were as an owner and manager, putting together a conglomerate that included insurance companies as sources of funds and other companies that could benefit from the funds. There were also some interesting PR and regulatory maneuvers. Very clever guy. But the point is that he was not and really is not now operating primarily as a stock investor like you and me. His other great talent is in PR, as evidenced by the annual circus in Omaha. I admire the guy, but he is far more complex than the image that most people have of him.
 
^^^^ Well.... in the 8+ years that I've read posts on this forum that is by far and away the craziest post that I have ever read.


You're a fickle guy there pb4uski. Not too long ago you pointed to one of my posts as "the craziest post you'd ever read on the forum." I've been displaced from being the "craziest" in your post reading life experiences already? Or do you just tell all the girls they have the purtiest eyes you've eva seen?"
 
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Thanks for the interesting discussion. :flowers:

 
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