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Decades chart, roaring 20's ?
Old 05-05-2021, 05:46 PM   #1
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Decades chart, roaring 20's ?

I've updated my decades chart to add the current one, the 2020's. Hoping for a repeat of some past great decades.

The thick blue line is the current 2020's through April 2021. There are 10 other completed decades on this chart. I showed decades so that one could see how variable they have been and many of us think in terms of decades. Note this is inflation corrected data. Semilog charts help to show growth rates. A 7% growth rate is shown as a reference only. The solid think purple line is the 2010's that we have recently experienced.




If the current market just followed a 7% rate from here it would be lower then some past decades but I would be a happy camper. I love things that go up and to the right.
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Old 05-05-2021, 06:54 PM   #2
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So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?

Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:03 PM   #3
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I expressed the opinion here sometime ago that they clearest comparison to our current situation economically was the early 1920s. The post-Korean war era is another possible model for similar reasons.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:05 PM   #4
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Very cool. Not sure what practical value it has for investing decision making but it is nevertheless one of the "type" of things I like to look at from time to time in order to reinforce my belief in "buy and hold"

Thanks for posting.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:17 PM   #5
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I always enjoy these charts. Thanks for posting them.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:32 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by tulak View Post
So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?

Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:46 PM   #7
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Very cool. Not sure what practical value it has for investing decision making but it is nevertheless one of the "type" of things I like to look at from time to time in order to reinforce my belief in "buy and hold"

Thanks for posting.
I think the practical value might be:
1) It doesn't look like current the price action is all that unusual historically.
2) It is easier to see how various historical events played out in the market (for large caps at least)
3) It is a pretty graph with lots of color.
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Old 05-05-2021, 07:48 PM   #8
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In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.
Right, the 2010's are a thicker purple line then the 1970's.
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:10 PM   #9
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So....cut the red wire
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:24 PM   #10
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So....cut the red wire
Maybe if you mean the 7% growth line. The growth rate of the SP500 is clearly variable.

I think the approximate long term return for the SP500 is 10% before inflation. If the average inflation is 3% over the decades, then we get 7%.
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Old 05-06-2021, 01:06 AM   #11
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In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.

You’re right. I got my purples mixed up. That makes a lot more sense. The 2010 decade was pretty good.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:10 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by tulak View Post
So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?

Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
It is surprising to wake up, see we just had 2 of the worst decades of the last ten, and be ok with it. I suppose if the 2020's turn out to be negative, that would trigger a lot of angst.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:18 AM   #13
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I wouldn't make a prediction from it. For entertainment purposes only.
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Old 05-06-2021, 07:47 AM   #14
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It is surprising to wake up, see we just had 2 of the worst decades of the last ten, and be ok with it. I suppose if the 2020's turn out to be negative, that would trigger a lot of angst.
No, the 2010 decade wasn’t one of the worst. It’s got to be one of the best - yeah, in the top 5 best.

People are confusing the 1970 line with the 2010 line.
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Old 05-06-2021, 08:27 AM   #15
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Lsbcal, love your charts !!!

Excluding data for 1920s-30s-40s - a lot of special cause variation that is not currently applicable IMHO, here is what I see:
1950s - Good
1960s - Good
1970s - Bad
1980s - Good
1990s - Good
2000s - Bad
2010s - Good
2020s -
2030s -

predictions?
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Old 05-06-2021, 08:30 AM   #16
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So do we get two good decades following a bad? Sounds good to me!
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:05 AM   #17
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So do we get two good decades following a bad? Sounds good to me!
I will turn you into a market timer yet.
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:10 AM   #18
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Great chart to show that stocks are the best longer term strategy.
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:10 AM   #19
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Lsbcal, love your charts !!!

Excluding data for 1920s-30s-40s - a lot of special cause variation that is not currently applicable IMHO, here is what I see:
1950s - Good
1960s - Good
1970s - Bad
1980s - Good
1990s - Good
2000s - Bad
2010s - Good
2020s -
2030s -

predictions?
I use to have a smiley face on the chart with the warning that this is not predictive. But I sure wish it were.
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Old 05-06-2021, 09:14 AM   #20
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I use to have a smiley face on the chart with the warning that this is not predictive. But I sure wish it were.
Agree, but still fun pattern if it is a pattern
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