|
|
Decades chart, roaring 20's ?
05-05-2021, 05:46 PM
|
#1
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Decades chart, roaring 20's ?
I've updated my decades chart to add the current one, the 2020's. Hoping for a repeat of some past great decades.
The thick blue line is the current 2020's through April 2021. There are 10 other completed decades on this chart. I showed decades so that one could see how variable they have been and many of us think in terms of decades. Note this is inflation corrected data. Semilog charts help to show growth rates. A 7% growth rate is shown as a reference only. The solid think purple line is the 2010's that we have recently experienced.
If the current market just followed a 7% rate from here it would be lower then some past decades but I would be a happy camper. I love things that go up and to the right.
|
|
|
|
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!
Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!
|
05-05-2021, 06:54 PM
|
#2
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,873
|
So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?
Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:03 PM
|
#3
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,591
|
I expressed the opinion here sometime ago that they clearest comparison to our current situation economically was the early 1920s. The post-Korean war era is another possible model for similar reasons.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:05 PM
|
#4
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: GTA
Posts: 1,728
|
Very cool. Not sure what practical value it has for investing decision making but it is nevertheless one of the "type" of things I like to look at from time to time in order to reinforce my belief in "buy and hold"
Thanks for posting.
__________________
Family Motto: "Every penny's a prisoner"
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:17 PM
|
#5
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,934
|
I always enjoy these charts. Thanks for posting them.
__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:32 PM
|
#6
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 148
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak
So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?
Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
|
In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:46 PM
|
#7
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koogie
Very cool. Not sure what practical value it has for investing decision making but it is nevertheless one of the "type" of things I like to look at from time to time in order to reinforce my belief in "buy and hold"
Thanks for posting.
|
I think the practical value might be:
1) It doesn't look like current the price action is all that unusual historically.
2) It is easier to see how various historical events played out in the market (for large caps at least)
3) It is a pretty graph with lots of color.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 07:48 PM
|
#8
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by wyecrabber1
In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.
|
Right, the 2010's are a thicker purple line then the 1970's.
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 08:10 PM
|
#9
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 6,023
|
So....cut the red wire
|
|
|
05-05-2021, 08:24 PM
|
#10
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Maybe if you mean the 7% growth line. The growth rate of the SP500 is clearly variable.
I think the approximate long term return for the SP500 is 10% before inflation. If the average inflation is 3% over the decades, then we get 7%.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 01:06 AM
|
#11
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 2,873
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by wyecrabber1
In looking at the chart, I think the purple line above the 7% represents the 2010 decade. The 2 worse years are 1970 [purple] line below the 7% trend line and the 2000's.
|
You’re right. I got my purples mixed up. That makes a lot more sense. The 2010 decade was pretty good.
__________________
Eat, Drink and Be Merry.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 04:10 AM
|
#12
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,720
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by tulak
So the last two decades were the worst, yet it doesn’t seem that bad?
Thanks for maintaining the chart. I always enjoy seeing how we’re trending.
|
It is surprising to wake up, see we just had 2 of the worst decades of the last ten, and be ok with it. I suppose if the 2020's turn out to be negative, that would trigger a lot of angst.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 04:18 AM
|
#13
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 5,003
|
I wouldn't make a prediction from it. For entertainment purposes only.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 07:47 AM
|
#14
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
It is surprising to wake up, see we just had 2 of the worst decades of the last ten, and be ok with it. I suppose if the 2020's turn out to be negative, that would trigger a lot of angst.
|
No, the 2010 decade wasn’t one of the worst. It’s got to be one of the best - yeah, in the top 5 best.
People are confusing the 1970 line with the 2010 line.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 08:27 AM
|
#15
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 414
|
Lsbcal, love your charts !!!
Excluding data for 1920s-30s-40s - a lot of special cause variation that is not currently applicable IMHO, here is what I see:
1950s - Good
1960s - Good
1970s - Bad
1980s - Good
1990s - Good
2000s - Bad
2010s - Good
2020s -
2030s -
predictions?
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 08:30 AM
|
#16
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
|
So do we get two good decades following a bad? Sounds good to me!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 09:05 AM
|
#17
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
So do we get two good decades following a bad? Sounds good to me!
|
I will turn you into a market timer yet.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 09:10 AM
|
#18
|
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,373
|
Great chart to show that stocks are the best longer term strategy.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 09:10 AM
|
#19
|
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,809
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exit 2024
Lsbcal, love your charts !!!
Excluding data for 1920s-30s-40s - a lot of special cause variation that is not currently applicable IMHO, here is what I see:
1950s - Good
1960s - Good
1970s - Bad
1980s - Good
1990s - Good
2000s - Bad
2010s - Good
2020s -
2030s -
predictions?
|
I use to have a smiley face on the chart with the warning that this is not predictive. But I sure wish it were.
|
|
|
05-06-2021, 09:14 AM
|
#20
|
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 414
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal
I use to have a smiley face on the chart with the warning that this is not predictive. But I sure wish it were.
|
Agree, but still fun pattern if it is a pattern
|
|
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Recent Threads
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
» Quick Links
|
|
|