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Old 11-02-2022, 02:28 PM   #21
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I like Tesla. And they definitely have the first mover advantage. But there is nothing particularly proprietary that will prevent competition. It could be, that 10 years from now, VW or Ford or some company we don't even know about yet has replaced Tesla as the dominant force in EVs.

It could be. Then Tesla is not the first mover in EVs. They are the first lot who managed to grow substantially many years in a row with a product that many enough want to buy so that they make profit each quarter.


One defunct first mover were Norwegian car company Think who made EVs around year 2000 before lithium had it's breaktrough. They were bough by Ford who failed to build the brand and enough cars to be profitable. So it was shut down.


The most interesting part of Ford and GM for me now is how they will manage the challenge of declining sales of their ICE vehicles combined with the amount of R&D needed to make EVs that can compete with Tesla.


When the sale of their profitable cars drop it's not very far down to a level where the profits are lost since their margins are thin. And drop it will when more and more people realize that EVs are cheaper to run and own.


Then when your existing product line stop being profitable how do you finance the switch to EVs? The current EVs are not profitable for most of the traditional brands. And they are inferior to Tesla both in efficiency and price. It is an expensive gap to close.
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Old 11-02-2022, 11:18 PM   #22
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This may be off topic, but the thread was titled about horse investing.

Have a friend that started “investing” in race horses about 10 years ago. His 2nd horse, bought for only $40k, made it to the Kentucky Derby! I don’t think he’s made money on it, but what an experience, to be able to walk the track with your horse at The Derby!
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Old 11-03-2022, 07:16 AM   #23
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When I was in my first Real Job out of college (1975), the WSJ would have ads for limited partnerships that offered a first-year tax write-off of multiples of your initial investment- sometimes 7X or 8X. Most involved horse farms or oil drilling.

Sigh. I could use a few of those now.
IIRC most such excess write-offs got disallowed by IRS but YMMV.
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Old 11-03-2022, 08:16 AM   #24
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It could be. Then Tesla is not the first mover in EVs. They are the first lot who managed to grow substantially many years in a row with a product that many enough want to buy so that they make profit each quarter.
There were electric vehicles back in the late 1800s / early 1900s. So yes, Tesla was not the first EV company. But note the word "significant" in this definition of first mover advantage:

"In marketing strategy, first-mover advantage (FMA) is the competitive advantage gained by the initial ("first-moving") significant occupant of a market segment."

I definitely consider Tesla to be the first significant EV company.


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Then when your existing product line stop being profitable how do you finance the switch to EVs?
The switch is already happening. I just did a search for "ev sales in europe 2022" and the first chart I saw was for sales in Q2 of 2022. Tesla was second, behind the Fiat 500. Right on the heels of those two were cars by Peugeot 208, Kia Niro, Skoda Enyaq Ford Kuga, Volkswagon ID.4, Renault ZOE and Mercedes GLC Class.

The market share of the top 10 EV models accounted for only one-fourth of total EV sales. It is already a fragmented market. I think it will continue to be so.
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Old 11-03-2022, 10:42 AM   #25
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It's true that nothing lasts forever, and that includes corporations.
With a few notable exceptions, this is very true. I think in some cases they get taken over by MBAs and bean-counters, always playing it "safe" while trying to squeeze every penny out of the organization, employees, suppliers and customers.

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The switch is already happening. I just did a search for "ev sales in europe 2022" and the first chart I saw was for sales in Q2 of 2022. Tesla was second, behind the Fiat 500. Right on the heels of those two were cars by Peugeot 208, Kia Niro, Skoda Enyaq Ford Kuga, Volkswagon ID.4, Renault ZOE and Mercedes GLC Class.
Based on what little reading I've done about EVs (mostly, just the headlines) and talking to people, it seems the word is out that Tesla isn't the EV to buy any more. Many more options, and most are reported to be better and/or cheaper than TSLA.
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Old 11-03-2022, 02:57 PM   #26
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With a few notable exceptions, this is very true. I think in some cases they get taken over by MBAs and bean-counters, always playing it "safe" while trying to squeeze every penny out of the organization, employees, suppliers and customers.



Based on what little reading I've done about EVs (mostly, just the headlines) and talking to people, it seems the word is out that Tesla isn't the EV to buy any more. Many more options, and most are reported to be better and/or cheaper than TSLA.
Competition based on improved products is a great thing to watch. I wouldn't count Tesla out but other companies appear to be catching up somewhat. I do think Tesla is the company to beat, but someone may well beat them. Also a good thing. YMMV
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Old 11-03-2022, 03:09 PM   #27
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Tesla already reduces the price of its cars by 9% in China, the market where the company expected to get a lot of sales. The lead time for ordering is said to be gone. You buy and get instant delivery.

Chinese makers are cranking out a lot of inexpensive EVs for the masses that Tesla cannot build, so I can see some pressure mounting.
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Old 11-03-2022, 03:57 PM   #28
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Now these things I do know something about!


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Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post

Based on what little reading I've done about EVs (mostly, just the headlines) and talking to people, it seems the word is out that Tesla isn't the EV to buy any more. Many more options, and most are reported to be better and/or cheaper than TSLA.
Many more options - that is true - and good for interested buyers. Better - as in looking better or having more cup holders - sure - depends on who is looking. But better as in faster or cheapest to run per mile or safest car to drive - Tesla is years ahead of the competition.


When Tesla designed their EVs from the ground up other EVs are more or less traditional cars with the gas engine swapped out. And while traditionally makers prided themselves on the best engine builds they are learning to walk again and buy - or make - inferior parts. Long experience win over newcomers again here too - only it's Tesla who's experienced and the others who are trying to catch up.



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Competition based on improved products is a great thing to watch. I wouldn't count Tesla out but other companies appear to be catching up somewhat. I do think Tesla is the company to beat, but someone may well beat them. Also a good thing. YMMV
The others have indeed woken up to the EV revolution. But look at the number of EVs they make. They are a long way from lowering cost from mass production. And while they will make better and better cars - so will Tesla.

The single most limiting factor in EV production is battery availability. So to reach the levels of mass production gas powered cars have lot's of batteries are needed. Tesla is way ahead of the others here. If you want to know more about the EV competition battery availibility is the factor to look into.


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Tesla already reduces the price of its cars by 9% in China, the market where the company expected to get a lot of sales. The lead time for ordering is said to be gone. You buy and get instant delivery.

Chinese makers are cranking out a lot of inexpensive EVs for the masses that Tesla cannot build, so I can see some pressure mounting.
This is what the media is reporting. But they often get things only half right. Also in this case.

Tesla lowered the price in China. Enough to qualify for tax subsidies from the Chinese government. This has resulted in lots of cancelled cars - from the other makers. So some kind of pressure mounted.

Tesla has long waiting lists in all markets. Too long. So they have increased their prices several times the last couple of years. Because too long waiting lists will give you impatient and frustrated customers.

This combined with excellent margins means if the recession slow down the car buyers they can lower the prices and still earn lots of money. While the other EVmakers (except for Porsche I believe) have negative margins and will bleed if they have to do the same.




Sorry about the long rant
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Old 11-03-2022, 04:39 PM   #29
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^^^ Well, sounds like you have a strong conviction on Tesla.

I don't, and that's why I have never owned the stock.

Perhaps you will get a good return out of Tesla stock. I don't own any, so I hope my own stocks will give me some returns for me to live on.


PS. I am always watching out for horsy stocks in my portfolio. Had a few that were not horses but still went bankrupt for different reasons.

I did own Hormel a few years ago, but not now. Lost the shares through a covered option call, and have not looked to buy them back.
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Old 11-03-2022, 08:50 PM   #30
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Now these things I do know something about!




Many more options - that is true - and good for interested buyers. Better - as in looking better or having more cup holders - sure - depends on who is looking. But better as in faster or cheapest to run per mile or safest car to drive - Tesla is years ahead of the competition.


When Tesla designed their EVs from the ground up other EVs are more or less traditional cars with the gas engine swapped out. And while traditionally makers prided themselves on the best engine builds they are learning to walk again and buy - or make - inferior parts. Long experience win over newcomers again here too - only it's Tesla who's experienced and the others who are trying to catch up.





The others have indeed woken up to the EV revolution. But look at the number of EVs they make. They are a long way from lowering cost from mass production. And while they will make better and better cars - so will Tesla.

The single most limiting factor in EV production is battery availability. So to reach the levels of mass production gas powered cars have lot's of batteries are needed. Tesla is way ahead of the others here. If you want to know more about the EV competition battery availibility is the factor to look into.




This is what the media is reporting. But they often get things only half right. Also in this case.

Tesla lowered the price in China. Enough to qualify for tax subsidies from the Chinese government. This has resulted in lots of cancelled cars - from the other makers. So some kind of pressure mounted.

Tesla has long waiting lists in all markets. Too long. So they have increased their prices several times the last couple of years. Because too long waiting lists will give you impatient and frustrated customers.

This combined with excellent margins means if the recession slow down the car buyers they can lower the prices and still earn lots of money. While the other EVmakers (except for Porsche I believe) have negative margins and will bleed if they have to do the same.




Sorry about the long rant
I only have experience with exactly two different EVs. Son's Tesla mod 3 and DIL's Kia (whatever.) Ugh, not much comparison. Tesla wins on just about everything EXCEPT ingress and egress - much easier in the Kia.

No expert, so YMMV
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Old 11-04-2022, 08:48 AM   #31
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Perhaps you will get a good return out of Tesla stock. I don't own any, so I hope my own stocks will give me some returns for me to live on.

PS. I am always watching out for horsy stocks in my portfolio. Had a few that were not horses but still went bankrupt for different reasons.

Horsy stocks - I think you just came up with a good phrase there. Neither Google nor Investopedia have heard about this. But I immediately knew what you ment!



Owning single stocks is more work so investing in Tesla or anyone else just because it's the flavor of the month is a really bad idea. Tesla is the only company I'm willing to do the extra work for.
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Old 11-07-2022, 10:38 PM   #32
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Well, I coined that term, "horsy stock", by borrowing from the title of your thread.

The problem with these stocks is that you often don't recognize their horsy trait until it's too late. Hence, I try never putting more than 5% of investable assets in any single stock.
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Old 11-08-2022, 05:02 PM   #33
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Getting back to Tesla vs GM vs Ford:
With European mfgs jumping on the 2035 bandwagon to stop making ICE cars ENTIRELY, the US and Japanese auto mfgs are already on board.

GM and Ford have competing battery tech visions; Ford is the first to the market with its Mach-E, Lightning F150 and Transit Van, but GM's hot-swappable battery technology will give it a boost by 2023-24.

BTW, don't under-estimate how disliked Elon Musk is becoming. I participate in some auto discussions and there's a growing # of people who say Musk has turned them off permanently on Tesla. There are many more options now, and the new US rebate law have a # of restrictions that will give less-popular EVs/mfgs a big boost.

General Motors, Ford Wage War Over Battery-Electric Future
Here’s the timeline I see unfurling: Ford is winning the first round in the EV war with General Motors. It will probably hold onto that lead through 2022 and maybe 2023. But in 2024 GM will surge ahead as its strategic plan fully blossoms.
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Old 11-08-2022, 05:35 PM   #34
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I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.
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Old 11-08-2022, 05:48 PM   #35
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^^^ The Chinese, or more specifically the car maker Nio, are doing it. Yes, you buy the car and "rent" the battery.

Q
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Old 11-09-2022, 07:03 AM   #36
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^^^ The Chinese, or more specifically the car maker Nio, are doing it. Yes, you buy the car and "rent" the battery.

Interesting. I wish that could happen here. Unfortunately the last line of that video throws up the real roadblock: The auto manufacturers don't want to standardize on one battery design. I can see one emerging eventually, but until then, every car sold can never use a swap station.
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Old 11-09-2022, 09:53 AM   #37
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I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.
Makes sense for motorbikes or jitneys.

Battery pack required for most cars would be too unwieldy.
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Old 11-09-2022, 02:26 PM   #38
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I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.
I don't believe that is what the poster was talking about. The use of the term "hot-swapable" was perhaps a poor choice.

GM's Ultium battery packs are designed to be standardized across all new GM EVs as well as easy to replace individual modules for easy repair.

If GM can pull this off, it should give them a nice advantage.
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Old 11-09-2022, 05:20 PM   #39
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Makes sense for motorbikes or jitneys.

Battery pack required for most cars would be too unwieldy.
Yeah, shop charges in our area are like $150/hour. Imagine pulling into a place that has invested in a lift suitable for rapid changes of batteries. If it takes 15 minutes to change a battery, that's $40 just for the shop - before their charging costs and profit. Oh, and they'll be charging during peak hours unless they want to stock a few hundred batteries so they can charge off-peak. I don't see it but I was wrong once so YMMV.
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Old 11-09-2022, 06:10 PM   #40
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