Don't invest in horses

[Koolau]

With a few notable exceptions, this is very true. I think in some cases they get taken over by MBAs and bean-counters, always playing it "safe" while trying to squeeze every penny out of the organization, employees, suppliers and customers.



Based on what little reading I've done about EVs (mostly, just the headlines) and talking to people, it seems the word is out that Tesla isn't the EV to buy any more. Many more options, and most are reported to be better and/or cheaper than TSLA.

Competition based on improved products is a great thing to watch. I wouldn't count Tesla out but other companies appear to be catching up somewhat. I do think Tesla is the company to beat, but someone may well beat them. Also a good thing. YMMV

 

[NW-Bound]

Tesla already reduces the price of its cars by 9% in China, the market where the company expected to get a lot of sales. The lead time for ordering is said to be gone. You buy and get instant delivery.

Chinese makers are cranking out a lot of inexpensive EVs for the masses that Tesla cannot build, so I can see some pressure mounting.

 

[Christine]

Now these things I do know something about!

Based on what little reading I've done about EVs (mostly, just the headlines) and talking to people, it seems the word is out that Tesla isn't the EV to buy any more. Many more options, and most are reported to be better and/or cheaper than TSLA.

Many more options - that is true - and good for interested buyers. Better - as in looking better or having more cup holders - sure - depends on who is looking. But better as in faster or cheapest to run per mile or safest car to drive - Tesla is years ahead of the competition.


When Tesla designed their EVs from the ground up other EVs are more or less traditional cars with the gas engine swapped out. And while traditionally makers prided themselves on the best engine builds they are learning to walk again and buy - or make - inferior parts. Long experience win over newcomers again here too - only it's Tesla who's experienced and the others who are trying to catch up.

Competition based on improved products is a great thing to watch. I wouldn't count Tesla out but other companies appear to be catching up somewhat. I do think Tesla is the company to beat, but someone may well beat them. Also a good thing. YMMV

The others have indeed woken up to the EV revolution. But look at the number of EVs they make. They are a long way from lowering cost from mass production. And while they will make better and better cars - so will Tesla.

The single most limiting factor in EV production is battery availability. So to reach the levels of mass production gas powered cars have lot's of batteries are needed. Tesla is way ahead of the others here. If you want to know more about the EV competition battery availibility is the factor to look into.

Tesla already reduces the price of its cars by 9% in China, the market where the company expected to get a lot of sales. The lead time for ordering is said to be gone. You buy and get instant delivery.

Chinese makers are cranking out a lot of inexpensive EVs for the masses that Tesla cannot build, so I can see some pressure mounting.

This is what the media is reporting. But they often get things only half right. Also in this case.

Tesla lowered the price in China. Enough to qualify for tax subsidies from the Chinese government. This has resulted in lots of cancelled cars - from the other makers. So some kind of pressure mounted.

Tesla has long waiting lists in all markets. Too long. So they have increased their prices several times the last couple of years. Because too long waiting lists will give you impatient and frustrated customers.

This combined with excellent margins means if the recession slow down the car buyers they can lower the prices and still earn lots of money. While the other EVmakers (except for Porsche I believe) have negative margins and will bleed if they have to do the same.




Sorry about the long rant

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ Well, sounds like you have a strong conviction on Tesla.

I don't, and that's why I have never owned the stock.

Perhaps you will get a good return out of Tesla stock. I don't own any, so I hope my own stocks will give me some returns for me to live on.


PS. I am always watching out for horsy stocks in my portfolio. Had a few that were not horses but still went bankrupt for different reasons.

I did own Hormel a few years ago, but not now. Lost the shares through a covered option call, and have not looked to buy them back.

 

[Koolau]

Now these things I do know something about!




Many more options - that is true - and good for interested buyers. Better - as in looking better or having more cup holders - sure - depends on who is looking. But better as in faster or cheapest to run per mile or safest car to drive - Tesla is years ahead of the competition.


When Tesla designed their EVs from the ground up other EVs are more or less traditional cars with the gas engine swapped out. And while traditionally makers prided themselves on the best engine builds they are learning to walk again and buy - or make - inferior parts. Long experience win over newcomers again here too - only it's Tesla who's experienced and the others who are trying to catch up.





The others have indeed woken up to the EV revolution. But look at the number of EVs they make. They are a long way from lowering cost from mass production. And while they will make better and better cars - so will Tesla.

The single most limiting factor in EV production is battery availability. So to reach the levels of mass production gas powered cars have lot's of batteries are needed. Tesla is way ahead of the others here. If you want to know more about the EV competition battery availibility is the factor to look into.




This is what the media is reporting. But they often get things only half right. Also in this case.

Tesla lowered the price in China. Enough to qualify for tax subsidies from the Chinese government. This has resulted in lots of cancelled cars - from the other makers. So some kind of pressure mounted.

Tesla has long waiting lists in all markets. Too long. So they have increased their prices several times the last couple of years. Because too long waiting lists will give you impatient and frustrated customers.

This combined with excellent margins means if the recession slow down the car buyers they can lower the prices and still earn lots of money. While the other EVmakers (except for Porsche I believe) have negative margins and will bleed if they have to do the same.




Sorry about the long rant

I only have experience with exactly two different EVs. Son's Tesla mod 3 and DIL's Kia (whatever.) Ugh, not much comparison. Tesla wins on just about everything EXCEPT ingress and egress - much easier in the Kia.

No expert, so YMMV

 

[Christine]

Perhaps you will get a good return out of Tesla stock. I don't own any, so I hope my own stocks will give me some returns for me to live on.

PS. I am always watching out for horsy stocks in my portfolio. Had a few that were not horses but still went bankrupt for different reasons.

Horsy stocks - I think you just came up with a good phrase there. Neither Google nor Investopedia have heard about this. But I immediately knew what you ment!



Owning single stocks is more work so investing in Tesla or anyone else just because it's the flavor of the month is a really bad idea. Tesla is the only company I'm willing to do the extra work for.

 

[NW-Bound]

Well, I coined that term, "horsy stock", by borrowing from the title of your thread.

The problem with these stocks is that you often don't recognize their horsy trait until it's too late. Hence, I try never putting more than 5% of investable assets in any single stock.

 

[zippy2020]

Getting back to Tesla vs GM vs Ford:
With European mfgs jumping on the 2035 bandwagon to stop making ICE cars ENTIRELY, the US and Japanese auto mfgs are already on board.

GM and Ford have competing battery tech visions; Ford is the first to the market with its Mach-E, Lightning F150 and Transit Van, but GM's hot-swappable battery technology will give it a boost by 2023-24.

BTW, don't under-estimate how disliked Elon Musk is becoming. I participate in some auto discussions and there's a growing # of people who say Musk has turned them off permanently on Tesla. There are many more options now, and the new US rebate law have a # of restrictions that will give less-popular EVs/mfgs a big boost.

General Motors, Ford Wage War Over Battery-Electric Future
Here’s the timeline I see unfurling: Ford is winning the first round in the EV war with General Motors. It will probably hold onto that lead through 2022 and maybe 2023. But in 2024 GM will surge ahead as its strategic plan fully blossoms.
WardsAuto.com by John McElroy, 04Nov2022

https://www.wardsauto.com/industry-news/general-motors-ford-wage-war-over-battery-electric-future

 

[CaptTom]

I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ The Chinese, or more specifically the car maker Nio, are doing it. Yes, you buy the car and "rent" the battery.

 

[CaptTom]

^^^ The Chinese, or more specifically the car maker Nio, are doing it. Yes, you buy the car and "rent" the battery.

Interesting. I wish that could happen here. Unfortunately the last line of that video throws up the real roadblock: The auto manufacturers don't want to standardize on one battery design. I can see one emerging eventually, but until then, every car sold can never use a swap station.

 

[ncbill]

I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.

Makes sense for motorbikes or jitneys.

Battery pack required for most cars would be too unwieldy.

 

[Zathras]

I never thought the hot-swappable battery idea would work in the US. It's sort of like those propane tank exchanges. You bring in a new one, and get an old crappy one in return. And they only fill them 3/4 full. The only way I could see it working is if you could buy the car without the battery and use only whatever the exchange gives you.

There's also the chicken-and-egg thing. That has been an issue with charging stations, but a swap station has got to be more expensive to build and take up more real estate.

I don't believe that is what the poster was talking about. The use of the term "hot-swapable" was perhaps a poor choice.

GM's Ultium battery packs are designed to be standardized across all new GM EVs as well as easy to replace individual modules for easy repair.

If GM can pull this off, it should give them a nice advantage.

 

[Koolau]

Makes sense for motorbikes or jitneys.

Battery pack required for most cars would be too unwieldy.

Yeah, shop charges in our area are like $150/hour. Imagine pulling into a place that has invested in a lift suitable for rapid changes of batteries. If it takes 15 minutes to change a battery, that's $40 just for the shop - before their charging costs and profit. Oh, and they'll be charging during peak hours unless they want to stock a few hundred batteries so they can charge off-peak. I don't see it but I was wrong once so YMMV.

 

[RobbieB]

The future is 2 electric cars parked in the driveway under a solar carport.

 

[Zathras]

Yeah, shop charges in our area are like $150/hour. Imagine pulling into a place that has invested in a lift suitable for rapid changes of batteries. If it takes 15 minutes to change a battery, that's $40 just for the shop - before their charging costs and profit. Oh, and they'll be charging during peak hours unless they want to stock a few hundred batteries so they can charge off-peak. I don't see it but I was wrong once so YMMV.

If done correctly, it can all be automated and take about 90 seconds.
However, it really doesn’t work well in the USA.
Whoever is doing the swaps needs about three times the number of batteries. That is a lot of very large batteries.

The cost of charging is a minor issue compared to the required inventory. Not to mention getting all manufacturers using the same format.

 

[NW-Bound]

The future is 2 electric cars parked in the driveway under a solar carport.

Depending on how many miles per day you drive, a carport worth of solar panels is hard pressed to charge 1 EV, let alone 2.

Safer to ride a scooter, which does not burn as much solar juice.

 

[Koolau]

The future is 2 electric cars parked in the driveway under a solar carport.

Heh, heh, no carport and no electrical hook up. Other than that, I think you're right! Maybe not in my life time but I'm guessing it will happen.

 

[RobbieB]

I dunno. 20x20' ie 400 sq-ft is more than I have on my roof now. Yeah, for one car charging during the day and drive the other one. Switch off as needed.

And yeah, E-Motorcycles, sign me up, I've got 2 gassers now, selling one.

 

[NW-Bound]

On a flat surface of 20'x20', you can fit 22 standard PV panels of 42"x62", each is rated at 330W.

Where I am in the sunny SW, the above panels will produce 45 kWh/day in August, and 17 kWh/day in December. For an EV drawing 35 kWh/100 miles, that's 129 miles/day in the summer, and 49 miles/day in the winter.

The problem is when you are drivin', you are not home chargin'. Hence, it works better to have 2 EVs to alternate, one being charged while you drive the other one.

And of course, if you are not in the sunlit SW where I am, you need to derate for your less sunny climate.

 

[REWahoo]

The problem is when you are drivin', you are not home chargin'. Hence, it works better to have 2 EVs to alternate, one being charged while you drive the other one.

You only need one if you only drive at night.

 

[RobbieB]

On a flat surface of 20'x20', you can fit 22 standard PV panels of 42"x62", each is rated at 330W.

Where I am in the sunny SW, the above panels will produce 45 kWh/day in August, and 17 kWh/day in December. For an EV drawing 35 kWh/100 miles, that's 129 miles/day in the summer, and 49 miles/day in the winter.

The problem is when you are drivin', you are not home chargin'. Hence, it works better to have 2 EVs to alternate, one being charged while you drive the other one.

And of course, if you are not in the sunlit SW where I am, you need to derate for your less sunny climate.

That's why I said 2 ev's under 400 sq-ft.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not everyone can afford to have a spare EV.

I think there is a market here for less expensive solution: an EV battery pack that you can mount/dismount yourself. The spare battery pack can be left at home getting charged while you are out on a joy ride.

EV battery packs weigh around 1,000 lbs, so we need an ingenious solution for the battery swap to be DIY.

Well, I guess you can also have a fixed battery at home, and transfer its charge to the car when you get home. Just lose a few more percent of energy.

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah, easy access just unclip and pull out. Should be great in a collision.

Not everyone can afford 1 car let alone 2 cars. Not everyone can afford solar.

And not everyone can afford the big third battery charging under the roof while both cars are off at work all day.

But 400 sq-ft over the driveway is possible almost anywhere.

 

[NW-Bound]

If you cannot afford an EV, perhaps you can buy some shares of an EV maker instead.

I just happened to see today's EV stock price movements on Yahoo. They all drop more bigly than the overall market which drops -2.1%. What's going on?

Tesla: -7.2%
Rivian: -11.9%
Lucid: -17.0%
Nio: -12.4%
Xpeng: -14.7%
BYD: -8.3%