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01-22-2021, 09:27 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,962
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Dow 35,000
I know there is a thread here entitled ‘Dow 30,000’. Now we are around Dow 31,000 and it’s still January 2021. What’s your thoughts on Dow 35,000 by year end? Or even beyond 35,000?
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No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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01-22-2021, 10:06 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,390
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I think we get to Dow 35000. Beyond that, I am less bullish. It wouldn't surprise me if we had a big correction this year. But it's all guesswork.
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Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
The first rule of compounding: Never interupt it unnecessarily. Charlie Munger
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01-22-2021, 10:24 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 10,836
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It may drop (correct) before it hits 35k but I suspect it will happen and probably before year end.
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20's "something" mind, trapped in a 70's "something" body
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01-22-2021, 10:49 AM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Topanga
Posts: 313
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At 3% average annual growth the Dow will be at 35,000 in five years. I think it will happen much earlier.
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01-22-2021, 12:39 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Milwaukee
Posts: 3,941
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Seems less likely because Apple had a 4-for-1 stock split this year.
Note: I don't actually have an opinion on whether Apple will continue to outperform; I am really just making comment on the stupidity of how the DJIA is calculated.
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01-22-2021, 12:58 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,871
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I don't see much movement until the current administration gets their feet on the ground and the covid situation under some semblance of control. See my tag line.
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Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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01-22-2021, 01:01 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: NC Triangle
Posts: 5,807
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frayne
I don't see much movement until the current administration gets their feet on the ground and the covid situation under some semblance of control.
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That’d be fine with me. We’ve been subjected to whipsaw events and reactions for long enough. Time for a breather.
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01-22-2021, 01:10 PM
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#8
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,514
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Let’s all make an effort to keep politics out of the discussion.
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01-22-2021, 03:04 PM
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#9
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,468
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
I know there is a thread here entitled ‘Dow 30,000’. Now we are around Dow 31,000 and it’s still January 2021. What’s your thoughts on Dow 35,000 by year end? Or even beyond 35,000?
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I have no idea! Honestly I NEVER thought the Dow would reach 31,000 this year, and yet here we are. It's obvious to me that my crystal ball desperately needs a tune-up.
When I was a little girl, I remember the Dow breaking into the 400's. I was about six years old, I suppose. I thought the Dow exceeding 400 was pretty exciting, even though I had no clue as to why the grown-ups were so thrilled!
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01-22-2021, 08:09 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,344
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All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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01-22-2021, 10:06 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 37,931
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Out-to-Lunch
Seems less likely because Apple had a 4-for-1 stock split this year.
Note: I don't actually have an opinion on whether Apple will continue to outperform; I am really just making comment on the stupidity of how the DJIA is calculated.
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You mean last year?
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Retired since summer 1999.
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01-22-2021, 10:25 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Milwaukee
Posts: 3,941
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
You mean last year?
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Yes. I am still writing 2020 on my checks, too!
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01-23-2021, 04:53 AM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,942
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I can live with it.
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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01-23-2021, 06:19 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,536
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 38Chevy454
All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.
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You mean 35,000 right? We are already at 31,000.
__________________
-Big Dawg-FI since 9/2010. Failed ER in 2015. 2/15/2023=DONE! "Blow that dough"-Robbie
" People say I'm lazy, dreaming my life away Well, they give me all kinds of advice designed to enlighten me When I tell them that I'm doing fine watching shadows on the wall "Don't you miss the big time, boy. You're no longer on the ball" -John Lennon-
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01-23-2021, 07:20 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,373
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Just looked at my numbers for the last 4.5 years in ER. I averaged 13% gains per year in the last 4.5 years. If I had a 13% growth for 2021 that would throw the DJIA over 35000 mark.
Who knows what will happen but I do hope in the next bear market, it doesn't last a couple of years. That would be depressing to say the least.
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01-23-2021, 09:48 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 4,344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 38Chevy454
All it would take is an approximate 15% gain to reach 31,000. I think that is possible.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigdawg
You mean 35,000 right? We are already at 31,000.
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Yes, meant 35,000. Won't let me go back and edit now.
__________________
The problem isn't artificial intelligence, it's natural stupidity.
You can't spend yourself to prosperity.
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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01-23-2021, 10:03 AM
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#17
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 5,601
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Is a spike possible? IMO, yes.
But I suspect a number of US companies, for example those in the oil industry, are going to have a lot to digest the next few years. Will tech be able to make up for that? I never had a crystal ball, but I do have concerns.
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Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without.
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01-23-2021, 06:24 PM
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#18
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2020
Location: San Diego
Posts: 146
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Since the US Dollar is your denominator, the sky is the limit!
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01-24-2021, 04:22 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 1,360
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Sadly, I think 2021 is starting to look like 2020 redux.
The logistical realities of getting the vaccines out is starting to hit home.
The variants are introducing another critical uncertainty. The UK govt just said the new variant most prevalent here might be 30% more lethal. Another variant shows some likelihood that it will evade the vaccine, at least to some extent.
Healthcare systems seem to be really straining under the load which is going to create real pressure to sustain tighter lockdowns.
Because I live abroad, I'm particularly attuned to global travel and the trend there is tightening not relaxing, further compounding problems for what had been a huge portion of the economy.
The above probably portends a slow return to office work. Our megacorp had already called the play that there would be no return to the office through June of 2021. I'm betting its through the EOY now. That simply crushes local businesses in the area and puts strain on the local tax system.
In that context a lot -- too much -- will depend on government largesse to sustain things economically.
If I would a trading type who took action on "buy the rumor, sell the news" it would be time to sell. The news is coming in and its not great.
The values in my accounts make me smile ... but mentally I'm just writing this all down 20% as I think its etheral.
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Luck is when Preparation meets Opportunity.
FIRE'd 1/1/24
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01-24-2021, 08:47 AM
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#20
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gone traveling
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jurgs01
Since the US Dollar is your denominator, the sky is the limit!
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That's a good way to look at it.
Great news Dow hit's 35,000 and in other news a gallon of gas is $5 as is a gallon of milk.
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