Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-30-2022, 01:48 PM   #101
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Sugar Land, Texas
Posts: 1,196
S&P 500 is what matters right?
F.I.R.E User is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 04-30-2022, 02:23 PM   #102
Moderator
Jerry1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 9,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by F.I.R.E User View Post
S&P 500 is what matters right?
I kinda think it’s my personal portfolio that matters.

The S&P is a decent proxy for the market, but it is only 500 stocks and no international. Still, that’s pretty much what I pay attention to after I look at how my brokerage account did.
__________________
Every day when I open my eyes now it feels like a Saturday - David Gray
Jerry1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2022, 02:28 PM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dash man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Limerick
Posts: 5,638
Quote:
Originally Posted by F.I.R.E User;
S&P 500 is what matters right?

The S&P500 is too heavily weighted in a few stocks. It’s not a good proxy for the market anymore.
Dash man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2022, 02:29 PM   #104
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2020
Location: Sugar Land, Texas
Posts: 1,196
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry1 View Post
I kinda think it’s my personal portfolio that matters.

The S&P is a decent proxy for the market, but it is only 500 stocks and no international. Still, that’s pretty much what I pay attention to after I look at how my brokerage account did.
True but most of us have invested in SP 500.
F.I.R.E User is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2022, 07:31 PM   #105
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 1,137
If this last dip shakes you up.....what did you expect ? Forever returns of 20% with no downside potential? This is nothing.

Long term or go home. I am 80% invested in the SP 500 because long term it will beat the heck out of anything I would pick to buy ( I tried and failed). Bonds suck and cash is a good ballast.

Lets all get back to work and let things happen. This is nothing to worry about.
Stormy Kromer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2022, 07:50 PM   #106
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 2,727
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stormy Kromer View Post
If this last dip shakes you up.....what did you expect ? Forever returns of 20% with no downside potential? This is nothing.

Long term or go home. I am 80% invested in the SP 500 because long term it will beat the heck out of anything I would pick to buy ( I tried and failed). Bonds suck and cash is a good ballast.

Lets all get back to work and let things happen. This is nothing to worry about.
Long term is fine if you're in your 30's or 40's. A lot of people here are older than that. The S&P 500 has gone around 18 years before it recovered at one point in the past when factoring in dividend reinvestment and adjusted for inflation. It was like a decade in doing so in more recent history.
GenXguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2022, 08:13 PM   #107
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 9,358
Quote:
Originally Posted by GenXguy View Post
Long term is fine if you're in your 30's or 40's. A lot of people here are older than that. The S&P 500 has gone around 18 years before it recovered at one point in the past when factoring in dividend reinvestment and adjusted for inflation. It was like a decade in doing so in more recent history.
The Triumph of the Optimists historical and multi-county analysis says that in the long run stocks always do better than bonds, but the long run may be as long as 40 years.

"While a country has only one past, there are many possible futures. The likely rewards from equity investment are worth having over the very long haul. Yet the risk of shortfall is always present, even over lengthy investment horizons. Investors should not assume that favorable equity returns can be guaranteed in the long term; nor should they assume that stocks are safe so long as they are retained for a holding period of at least twenty years." - http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/up..._optimists.pdf
__________________
Even clouds seem bright and breezy, 'Cause the livin' is free and easy, See the rat race in a new way, Like you're wakin' up to a new day (Dr. Tarr and Professor Fether lyrics, Alan Parsons Project, based on an EA Poe story)
daylatedollarshort is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2022, 08:38 PM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
clifp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo View Post
Well I think it would affect it at the rate debt rolls. Not $32T all at once.

And if you notice the long bond is not at a high rate, suggesting the market believes as I do that inflation will be tamed rather quickly.

But if Fed needs to raise rates a lot and quickly to tame inflation, it can.

And if we have learned anything over the past 2 years it is that lack of money to pay interest, while a problem for you and me, is not a major hurdle for government. Unfortunately.
It seems pretty likely that long bond rates are kept artificially low, but all of various central banks maneuver. The only people helped by higher T-bond rates are savers, and I think the 15-year war on savers that Fed has been waging has pretty much eliminated that group.

I am curious has anyone actually bought individual 10-30 year treasury bond with the intent to hold them to maturity in the last year or so? Or even a long-term Government ETF like TLT?

I honestly don't know anyone who has, nor why anyone would loan Uncle Sam for 30 years at below 3%?

However, it is very obvious why the central banks of US, Japan, most of Europe would benefit by keeping long-term interest rates low.
clifp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-01-2022, 11:23 PM   #109
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 468
As long as you believe you’ll still be vertical (not dead) in the next 15+ years, keep in mind that there’s never been a 15+ year return worse than 3.7%. https://www.thebalance.com/rolling-i...eturns-4061795

AA = 100% equities [emoji41]
RetiredAt49 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2022, 09:26 AM   #110
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,546
Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp View Post
It seems pretty likely that long bond rates are kept artificially low, but all of various central banks maneuver. The only people helped by higher T-bond rates are savers, and I think the 15-year war on savers that Fed has been waging has pretty much eliminated that group.
Well we know the largest buyer, the Fed, is out of the market now and looking to unwind. Market knows this and rates have moved higher all along the yield curve.

So while I hear that argument, the market knows the Fed will be a net seller and has set rates where they are. You have to give that some weight in my opinion.

I think the market is reflecting that demographically, we are growing at 1-2 percent AND the likelihood of a rate dampening recession has grown.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
I'm down 11% YTD
Old 05-02-2022, 10:01 AM   #111
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 520
I'm down 11% YTD

When I allow it, this upsets me. I remember - my "high" number in my main stock account last year was 1.7mm. And it dipped to 1.5's-1.6's a few times and each time I said to myself - if it hits 1.7mm again I'm getting totally out. Ended the year at 1.735 mm - -- - and I was so proud of myself for the first time - not panic selling and sticking with it.

Frankly my "core" boring picks - stuff like Coke and Proctor are impressive!! Only when I veered from my discipline - stuff like "Matterport" and a little "Nvidia" did I feel the pain. I admit I did just a bit of market-timing. Sold ALL my Apple at $168. Sold ALL my Amazon at $2600. Sold ALL my Coke at $65.80

Well here I am back in the 1.5's. I did keep about $275K in reserve..........because I have, and continue to believe that paper assets are 50% real, and 50% scam - and trick is to wait for the scam to drop the disguise. I've started to use some of the $275k.....

*$10,000 Verizon 46.35

*$10,000 DVY. 123.40

*$20,000 DISNEY - 120.00 (and it dropped still)


Stuff I'm close on:

Apple if hits $150 -

QQQ if it hits $305

Coke: $62


All of the above are for the purpose of holding - 4 years at least.
MichealKnight is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 08:27 AM   #112
Full time employment: Posting here.
Venturer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Dalton
Posts: 744
If it don’t end soon I’m afraid my wife might have a heart attack! I told her to just quit looking every day but no good!
Venturer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 08:58 AM   #113
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 659
Buy some Bitcoin to distract with even more volatility
captain3d is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 09:26 AM   #114
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,173
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain3d View Post
Buy some Bitcoin to distract with even more volatility

Bitcoin did not have a good April. It lost about 8 grand. Down over 15% in one month. Not so good.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy

The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 10:19 AM   #115
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
Quote:
Originally Posted by captain3d View Post
Buy some Bitcoin to distract with even more volatility

I just found my old Monopoly game, and it's got all the parts. Can I use that money to buy Bitcoin?
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 08:29 PM   #116
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 616
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
I just found my old Monopoly game, and it's got all the parts. Can I use that money to buy Bitcoin?
I would advise against it. Monopoly is a product that actually has some value (in this case, providing entertainment). Can't say the same for bitcoin. Buying bitcoin using Monopoly money would be a bad use of Monopoly money in my book.
luckydude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 08:45 PM   #117
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
Quote:
Originally Posted by luckydude View Post
I would advise against it. Monopoly is a product that actually has some value (in this case, providing entertainment). Can't say the same for bitcoin. Buying bitcoin using Monopoly money would be a bad use of Monopoly money in my book.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Dow losing almost -1000 Friday .. when will it end? Do we get a V recovery?
Old 05-03-2022, 09:48 PM   #118
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Twin Cities
Posts: 3,927
Dow losing almost -1000 Friday .. when will it end? Do we get a V recovery?

Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-03-2022, 09:57 PM   #119
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 616
Quote:
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.
No offense. I wouldn't buy bitcoin with toilet paper but that's just my opinion. To each his own. Good luck and hope it works out for you.
luckydude is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-04-2022, 02:22 AM   #120
Recycles dryer sheets
HarryHawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 131
Quote:
Originally Posted by luckydude View Post
No offense. I wouldn't buy bitcoin with toilet paper but that's just my opinion. To each his own. Good luck and hope it works out for you.
If inflation keeps up, toilet paper may be worth more than than a dollar.
__________________
Some say nothing is impossible, I do nothing every day.
HarryHawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Friday the 13th DOW shenanigans SeanPizzle FIRE and Money 7 03-14-2020 07:35 AM
Prechter - Dow under 1000 by 2016 shotgunner FIRE and Money 37 06-30-2010 06:19 AM
DOW 1000 - A dire prediction shotgunner FIRE and Money 19 04-09-2009 10:44 PM
Another view, DOW 3000 or DOW 12,200? RockOn FIRE and Money 25 03-03-2008 09:59 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:20 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.