Dow losing almost -1000 Friday .. when will it end? Do we get a V recovery?

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola Y’all keep on laughing and I’ll keep on buying limited-supply Bitcoin - and with U.S. dollars, too, which are produced out of thin air in an endless supply. We can check in ten years from now to see who was playing with Monopoly money.

I see no problem with gambling, its totally legal in many parts of the country.

Investing is totally different than gambling though.

If you're going to buy tulip bulbs, buy them for your enjoyment, not as an investment.

[Markola]

Quote:

Originally Posted by luckydude No offense. I wouldn't buy bitcoin with toilet paper but that's just my opinion. To each his own. Good luck and hope it works out for you.

Thanks. None taken. Good luck to you, too.

[Markola]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I see no problem with gambling, its totally legal in many parts of the country. Investing is totally different than gambling though. If you're going to buy tulip bulbs, buy them for your enjoyment, not as an investment.

It’s the small, 3% high-risk component of my portfolio. The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola It’s the small, 3% high-risk component of my portfolio. The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.

On the first part, that's good and who knows how it would work out... there may always be some greater fool out there. I guess the problem is that anyone reading your previous post wouldn't know the context that it is such a small percent of your total portfolio and might go big into it based on what you wrote. Really their probem, but context is important.

On the second part, I don't think the mods care at all, though I don't think crypto is generally very popular with most members.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Markola The mods don’t like us talking about it though at present so, out of respect for the culture here, that’s all I’ll say.

I think the crypto mod rule is at Bogleheads, not here. Not 100% sure though.

[MichaelB]

Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/for...-a-112448.html

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/for...-a-112448.html

Thank you!! Somehow I missed that whole cryptocurrency thread (probably because I have always invested in conventional broad mutual funds instead) and I had NO idea of that new moderation policy.

[Chuckanut]

Getting back to the decline in the common stocks......

Assuming I don't have to completely use up the emergency funds that I keep aside for a bear market, I wonder about doing some buying if we do see the BEAR take a big chunk out of the market. I no longer consider myself in the accumulation phase but the temptation to buy low (or at least much lower) is tempting.

Anybody else out there who might be tempted?

[Jeffman52]

I will ride this one out like I did the last few. For me anyway, I still have one of those J*B's and am still planning to retire next year. But if the market is worse than expected, I could always wait and pile up some cushion. Currently WFH so its not a bad gig if I had to stick with it.

[GravitySucks]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut Getting back to the decline in the common stocks...... Assuming I don't have to completely use up the emergency funds that I keep aside for a bear market, I wonder about doing some buying if we do see the BEAR take a big chunk out of the market. I no longer consider myself in the accumulation phase but the temptation to buy low (or at least much lower) is tempting. Anybody else out there who might be tempted?

Well I bought a small bit April 2020, so I'm hoping to have the fortitude to do so again if we reach bear territory.
I won't buy to a point where I would have less than 10 years spending in fixed though. (With inflation that 10 might only last 7, need 6+ years to hit SS max.)

[GenXguy]

LOL. I can't win. I decided that after the interest rate hike today, I would buy in some more stock funds in my brokerage account and work retirement account. I kept checking in on the news. The S&P was down after the announcement. But then the Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB Yes, discussions of cryptocurrency investments are, for the moment, no longer allowed. See the first and last post of this thread https://www.early-retirement.org/for...-a-112448.html

I stand corrected... I didn't know about the crypto ban.

[Dtail]

I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike.
Like Mr. Bogle said........

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenXguy Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.

Hot dog!!! Not that I plan to sell or buy, and I'm sorry for those who lost money from it, but still it's just nice to see the market bouncing back. Dow's up 932 points today. Who would have thought? It's still got some life in it, after all!

[Beststash]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenXguy LOL. I can't win. I decided that after the interest rate hike today, I would buy in some more stock funds in my brokerage account and work retirement account. I kept checking in on the news. The S&P was down after the announcement. But then the Fed made some comments that sent the market way up.

Don't worry you'll get a chance again �� I found it interesting that Powell basically telegraphed that there would be at least 2 more 50 basis point hikes but when it announced that " at this time no 75 point hike" the market soared.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski I stand corrected... I didn't know about the crypto ban.

NP. Not a ban, just a respite.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike. Like Mr. Bogle said........

The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB NP. Not a ban, just a respite. The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.

Clever, so basically nothing.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike....

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB The market definitely prices everything in advance. Stuff that will happen, stuff that may happen, and stuff that will never happen, all are reflected in market prices.

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

-- Benjamin Graham (as reported by Warren Buffet)

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike. Like Mr. Bogle said........

There are those that say the market is "efficient". I have to say I disagree. Today provides more evidence.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtail I keep hearing that the market already prices in stuff in advance, but yet today the market shot up, even though everyone already expected the half point hike. Like Mr. Bogle said........

Everyone expected the half point hike. As noted by someone else, the market was concerned about the possibility of one or more 75 basis point hikes. In the press conference, Powell essentially said that's off the table for now. Thus a (strong) relief rally.

Powell also talked about soft landings, and the Fed being determined enough to kill inflation but smart enough and with a strong enough economy to (probably/hopefully) avoid a recession. Both of these ideas may have also mollified investors.