Druckenmiller sees flat stock market for a decade

[tenant13]

I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��.

https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stanl...-central-bank/

[MichaelB]

Since the thread title was a typo it was edited and completed.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenant13 ... Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines...

So how are you going to get from point A to point B?

[copyright1997reloaded]

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Originally Posted by pb4uski So how are you going to get from point A to point B?

Amtrak?

[aja8888]

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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Amtrak?

LOL!

[cyber888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenant13 I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��. https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stanl...-central-bank/

Another prediction among a thousand predictions. If the Ukraine war ends in a month or two, things will be different. If inflation goes down in a few months, the Fed will act differently. If there's a recession and deflation, zero interest rates could come back - never say never. Unless it's Nostradamus, take any 10 Year Prediction with a grain of salt.

[11522914]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyber888 Another prediction among a thousand predictions. If the Ukraine war ends in a month or two, things will be different. If inflation goes down in a few months, the Fed will act differently. If there's a recession and deflation, zero interest rates could come back - never say never. Unless it's Nostradamus, take any 10 Year Prediction with a grain of salt.

Couldn't agree more that you just don't know what will happen.

If the Ukraine war turns into another Afghanistan this could go on for years. If inflation gets further entrenched and starts heading up again, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates possibly much higher. If there's stagflation we'll be stuck with a recession and much higher interest rates. Much higher interest rates could stay for quite awhile.

And in 2 years the stock market could be down 50% just as easily as it could be hitting record highs.

I agree to take any prediction with a grain of salt.

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenant13 I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��. https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stanl...-central-bank/

I'll take the over for $100, Alex.

[tenant13]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski So how are you going to get from point A to point B?

On the planes managed - hopefully - more competently by new airlines that will replace the ones we’ve been financing with our taxes for the last couple of years.

[DrRoy]

The article has a paywall. One prediction is worth as much as any other - not much.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by tenant13 On the planes managed - hopefully - more competently by new airlines that will replace the ones we’ve been financing with our taxes for the last couple of years.

That's been done already many times. It always ends up the same. Airlines have been going BK ever since we have had airlines. It's a bad business to start with. Not only here in the U.S., but all over the world.

[copyright1997reloaded]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 That's been done already many times. It always ends up the same. Airlines have been going BK ever since we have had airlines. It's a bad business to start with. Not only here in the U.S., but all over the world.

This.

My rule from long ago is to never invest in an airline, or for that matter any transportation company.

I must admit to forgetting my rule on a couple of occasions, usually to my detriment. (In fact, I just violated my rule by buying some Federal Express (FDX) at $158.20 on Friday. Chances are I will regret this.)

[target2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrRoy The article has a paywall. One prediction is worth as much as any other - not much.

I found a viewable link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legen...210012567.html

Quote:

Druckenmiller also gave a caveat for investors when it comes to his pessimistic outlook, saying that this is the most difficult time in history to make economic forecasts and that he has a history of a “bearish bias” that he has had to work around his whole career. “I like darkness,” he said.

I know the final sentence is true.

[razztazz]

Quote:

Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded Amtrak?

The free market of course. I'm sure Bezos or that Tesla guy will think of something we'll all think is great.

[Dtail]

Druckenmiller has had many wrong predictions in the past.

[GravitySucks]

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Originally Posted by razztazz The free market of course. I'm sure Bezos or that Tesla guy will think of something we'll all think is great.

https://time.com/6203815/elon-musk-f...naire-visions/

"Musk*admitted*to his biographer Ashlee Vance that Hyperloop was all about trying to get legislators to cancel plans for high-speed rail in California—even though he had no plans to build it."

Fly or drive through tunnels traversing major fault lines. I'll stay in the air please.

[FREE866]

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Originally Posted by Dtail Druckenmiller has had many wrong predictions in the past.

Do you have a source for this?
A couple of my perma bear friends are all over this and giddy about his prediction!

[cyber888]

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Originally Posted by 11522914 Couldn't agree more that you just don't know what will happen. If the Ukraine war turns into another Afghanistan this could go on for years. If inflation gets further entrenched and starts heading up again, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates possibly much higher. If there's stagflation we'll be stuck with a recession and much higher interest rates. Much higher interest rates could stay for quite awhile. And in 2 years the stock market could be down 50% just as easily as it could be hitting record highs. I agree to take any prediction with a grain of salt.

And the market could be up 1000% as easily as you say Booh even if there was a Afghan like war. We had an Afghan war for years and the US stock market prospered 1000%

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyber888 And the market could be up 1000% as easily as you say Booh even if there was a Afghan like war. We had an Afghan war for years and the US stock market prospered 1000%

War is good for this country. We manufacture a great deal of military hardware.

[cyber888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 War is good for this country. We manufacture a great deal of military hardware.

Correct. War is a business that contributes to the US companies’ earnings in the S&P500. Nobody likes war, but the industrial military complex is part of the US economy.