Druckenmiller sees flat stock market for a decade

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tenant13

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I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��.

https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stan...-warns-stock-market-flat-decade-central-bank/
 
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Since the thread title was a typo it was edited and completed.
 
tenant13 said:
I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��.

https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stan...-warns-stock-market-flat-decade-central-bank/
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Another prediction among a thousand predictions. If the Ukraine war ends in a month or two, things will be different. If inflation goes down in a few months, the Fed will act differently. If there's a recession and deflation, zero interest rates could come back - never say never. Unless it's Nostradamus, take any 10 Year Prediction with a grain of salt.
 
cyber888 said:
Another prediction among a thousand predictions. If the Ukraine war ends in a month or two, things will be different. If inflation goes down in a few months, the Fed will act differently. If there's a recession and deflation, zero interest rates could come back - never say never. Unless it's Nostradamus, take any 10 Year Prediction with a grain of salt.
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Couldn't agree more that you just don't know what will happen.

If the Ukraine war turns into another Afghanistan this could go on for years. If inflation gets further entrenched and starts heading up again, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates possibly much higher. If there's stagflation we'll be stuck with a recession and much higher interest rates. Much higher interest rates could stay for quite awhile.

And in 2 years the stock market could be down 50% just as easily as it could be hitting record highs.

I agree to take any prediction with a grain of salt.
 
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tenant13 said:
I’m on the phone and my finger slipped before I had a chance to finish typing… including the title of this post ��. Anyway, the gist of his prediction is : the party, aka money printing and zero interest rates, is over. I don’t think it’s particularly pessimistic. He makes perfect sense and reminds us that there will always be great companies out there that will do well even in high interest rates environment. Tbh, I’d like all the debt ridden zombies to go under and away - especially the airlines ��.

https://fortune.com/2022/09/15/stan...-warns-stock-market-flat-decade-central-bank/
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I'll take the over for $100, Alex.
 
pb4uski said:
So how are you going to get from point A to point B?
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On the planes managed - hopefully - more competently by new airlines that will replace the ones we’ve been financing with our taxes for the last couple of years.
 
The article has a paywall. One prediction is worth as much as any other - not much.
 
tenant13 said:
On the planes managed - hopefully - more competently by new airlines that will replace the ones we’ve been financing with our taxes for the last couple of years.
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That's been done already many times. It always ends up the same. Airlines have been going BK ever since we have had airlines. It's a bad business to start with. Not only here in the U.S., but all over the world.
 
aja8888 said:
That's been done already many times. It always ends up the same. Airlines have been going BK ever since we have had airlines. It's a bad business to start with. Not only here in the U.S., but all over the world.
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This.

My rule from long ago is to never invest in an airline, or for that matter any transportation company.

I must admit to forgetting my rule on a couple of occasions, usually to my detriment. (In fact, I just violated my rule by buying some Federal Express (FDX) at $158.20 on Friday. Chances are I will regret this.)
 
DrRoy said:
The article has a paywall. One prediction is worth as much as any other - not much.
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I found a viewable link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/legendary-investor-stanley-druckenmiller-warns-210012567.html

Druckenmiller also gave a caveat for investors when it comes to his pessimistic outlook, saying that this is the most difficult time in history to make economic forecasts and that he has a history of a “bearish bias” that he has had to work around his whole career.

“I like darkness,” he said.
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I know the final sentence is true.
 
Druckenmiller has had many wrong predictions in the past.
 
razztazz said:
The free market of course. I'm sure Bezos or that Tesla guy will think of something we'll all think is great.
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https://time.com/6203815/elon-musk-flaws-billionaire-visions/

"Musk*admitted*to his biographer Ashlee Vance that Hyperloop was all about trying to get legislators to cancel plans for high-speed rail in California—even though he had no plans to build it."

Fly or drive through tunnels traversing major fault lines. I'll stay in the air please.
 
Dtail said:
Druckenmiller has had many wrong predictions in the past.
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Do you have a source for this?
A couple of my perma bear friends are all over this and giddy about his prediction!
 
11522914 said:
Couldn't agree more that you just don't know what will happen.

If the Ukraine war turns into another Afghanistan this could go on for years. If inflation gets further entrenched and starts heading up again, the Fed will continue to raise interest rates possibly much higher. If there's stagflation we'll be stuck with a recession and much higher interest rates. Much higher interest rates could stay for quite awhile.

And in 2 years the stock market could be down 50% just as easily as it could be hitting record highs.

I agree to take any prediction with a grain of salt.
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And the market could be up 1000% as easily as you say Booh even if there was a Afghan like war. We had an Afghan war for years and the US stock market prospered 1000%
 
cyber888 said:
And the market could be up 1000% as easily as you say Booh even if there was a Afghan like war. We had an Afghan war for years and the US stock market prospered 1000%
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War is good for this country. We manufacture a great deal of military hardware.
 
aja8888 said:
War is good for this country. We manufacture a great deal of military hardware.
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Correct. War is a business that contributes to the US companies’ earnings in the S&P500. Nobody likes war, but the industrial military complex is part of the US economy.
 
Are we going to start seeing pension problems again for cities/states if we get a decade of poor market returns or did they all fix that stuff up now and are gucci?
 
Fermion said:
Are we going to start seeing pension problems again for cities/states if we get a decade of poor market returns or did they all fix that stuff up now and are gucci?
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They usually have a mix of asset classes, so it is not a given that they will do poorly if only stocks are flat. It also may depend on if the pensions they support are inflation adjusted and what happens to real interest rates. It would be hard to support pensions with 8% COLA increases with a fund making 4% from fixed income and a flat stock market.
 
Fermion said:
Are we going to start seeing pension problems again for cities/states if we get a decade of poor market returns or did they all fix that stuff up now and are gucci?
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Of course, this is a rhetorical question, you already know the answer.
 
SecondCor521 said:
I'll take the over for $100, Alex.
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I'll take the other side of that bet.

Such a period of no progress in stock prices not only has precedent but has occurred 3 times over the past 100 years: 1929-1954, 1969-1982 and 2000-2013. 10 years seems short given the magnitude of the parabolic rise in equities from 2009-2021.

Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. But it is not an "out there" prediction.
 
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