Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Extreme fear now
Old 03-02-2022, 09:28 AM   #1
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Extreme fear now

I've been a fan of CNN's Fear & Greed index: https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/. It uses indicators such as the VIX (see their explanation).

Of course, it is not predictive. But it nicely shows market sentiment. Currently it is showing "extreme fear". Such episodes in recent years have not lasted long. That is pretty easy to understand given the state of my stock portfolio . But I'm not doing anything, just watching as I have my max stock allocation.




Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-02-2022, 09:30 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
Fear is a good buy signal.
Montecfo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 09:35 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
ExFlyBoy5's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: ATL --> Flyover Country
Posts: 6,649
I bet they use this graphic in the ad sales pitch deck at CNN.
__________________
FIRE'd in 2014 @ 40 Years Old
Professional Retiree
ExFlyBoy5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 09:45 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Note this is an apolitical thread. Also does not consider Boglehead dogma as this is in the "Active investing ..." part of the ER site.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 10:06 AM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Helen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Portland
Posts: 2,038
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo View Post
Fear is a good buy signal.
I think the Feds are just beginning QE. I'm not going to fight the Feds.

I'm pretty comfortable with a 50/50 portfolio, but if valuations come down I would like to move more into stocks and leave them there to grow for donations and heirs.
Helen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 10:12 AM   #6
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,642
Quote:
Originally Posted by Helen View Post
I think the Feds are just beginning QE. I'm not going to fight the Feds.

I'm pretty comfortable with a 50/50 portfolio, but if valuations come down I would like to move more into stocks and leave them there to grow for donations and heirs.
My energy stocks and ETFs bought mid last year have kept me whole. I'll add to my S&P ETF when there is more blood in the streets. I'm about 40 % equities right now and will stay at that level, or less going forward. I'm keeping an eye on what the FED does to "attempt" to curb inflation.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 10:35 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
What fear? the market has been up like a rocket for... oh..., no reason, most of the past several days. War, inflation, more inflation caused by war, what fear?
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 10:44 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz View Post
What fear? the market has been up like a rocket for... oh..., no reason, most of the past several days. War, inflation, more inflation caused by war, what fear?
Funny, I had to check on your contention that the market has been up. That is indeed true for the last 5 sessions overall. And I'm glad of that. But year to date not so good unfortunately, down about -8% for the SP500.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 11:13 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Funny, I had to check on your contention that the market has been up. That is indeed true for the last 5 sessions overall. And I'm glad of that. But year to date not so good unfortunately, down about -8% for the SP500.
If it keeps up this "unseemly" trend it'll make up the 8% fast. But this might also be-----

1) your basic average over-reaction.

2) "Getting it while it's hot." type volatility. A week or two from now we'll be lower again.

3) A potential break in the clouds. The war in question won't get worse, The West is united. Vlad will be offered some way to save face while he goes home. IOW A nice safe landing in spite of all the trouble. Add to that people have noticed that war can be good for business. This of course is a gamble like most investments are.
4) People think #3 is happening but Vlad takes it personally and doubles/triples down. Then it really starts hitting the fan. Then lower stock markets.

I don't know what all of this does to the pre-existing underlying market environment. e.g. The inflation with pending rate increases we were all talking about. Overvaluations that didn't seem interested in coming down. 30 trillion in national debt. They were all there 3 weeks ago. Three months ago. Is the Urkraine thing making it worse in the long run? Or are the potentialities of war making those things not so important anymore?
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 12:42 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Oh my gosh! Extreme Fear!

Buy, buy, buy...


PS. I would buy if my stock AA is not already at more than 74%. Back in Dec 2021, I lowered my stock AA to the mid 60%. It has been slowly raised up via put options getting assigned.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 02:25 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: The Great Wide Open
Posts: 3,789
I was at local Fido office today, transferring late DM's assets. I asked the rep, how are people reacting to the recent volatility, and he said about 80% are holding pat and riding it out. The other 20%, he said have different goals, locking in what they have because they're close to the magic number, or are scared to death, not in that order.
__________________
Give me Liberty or give me Death. Patrick Henry
Winemaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 03:57 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Funny, I had to check on your contention that the market has been up. That is indeed true for the last 5 sessions overall. And I'm glad of that. But year to date not so good unfortunately, down about -8% for the SP500.
But over the last year it is good fortunately. SP500 is up nearly 15% over the last 12 months.
oldtimer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 04:12 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 2,724
The fear will get worse as the S&P 500 tumbles back down after short term bumps up.
GenXguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 06:08 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by GenXguy View Post
The fear will get worse as the S&P 500 tumbles back down after short term bumps up.
Yes, I find it hard to believe that at this early stage "the market" or anybody else can forecast such happy times ahead. S&P up 80, DJIA up ~600 today. So what happened to all the problems we had pre-Ukraine...?
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 06:15 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz View Post
Yes, I find it hard to believe that at this early stage "the market" or anybody else can forecast such happy times ahead. S&P up 80, DJIA up ~600 today. So what happened to all the problems we had pre-Urkraine...?

Those problems are still there.

That's why I sold 21 out-of-the-money covered call contracts today, with expiry next Friday 3/11.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)

"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 06:17 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,227
This fear/greed index changes at the drop of a hat.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 06:29 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
I'm not afraid -
RobbieB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 06:38 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Midwest
Posts: 2,962
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
This fear/greed index changes at the drop of a hat.

Yes, of all those so-called "indicators" and "contrarian indicators" Fear vs Greed is the worst. I don't understand what people see in the VIX either. Volatility? I've never seen how anyone could make a call using that information.
razztazz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 08:25 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,808
Quote:
Originally Posted by razztazz View Post
Yes, of all those so-called "indicators" and "contrarian indicators" Fear vs Greed is the worst. I don't understand what people see in the VIX either. Volatility? I've never seen how anyone could make a call using that information.
I think of this as the raw emotions of the crowds. Very human. Not predictive except maybe at extremes. Of course, the most extreme points are only known in the rear view mirror.

I only know my own feelings which swing quite wildly. Not that I act on them but many do. I like to think I'm very analytical but cannot get completely away from my emotional side.
Lsbcal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2022, 08:38 PM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,029
Looking back at what happened yesterday, or this morning even...is too late to have acted upon.

For instance DW had almost $2MM out of the market when the "fear" of a certain invasion was inevitable. I bought him back in this morning just about at the open on that small dip. Had I waited until this afternoon, when the left coast had woke up and started logging into the accounts...I woulda missed it. (It being the gains).

I actually am the opposite of afraid. I look forward to the next drop so I can buy myself back in, but I buy in every week so its kind of irrelevant...how MUCH I buy is a better question.

I usually notice that after the VIX Is at a high, the market has already dropped faster then I could have sold.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Now the spelling bee has gone extreme JoeWras Other topics 17 06-01-2019 05:06 PM
Extreme saving followed by extreme ER Sam Other topics 32 10-07-2010 08:38 AM
Fear and Greed - What to do now. chinaco FIRE and Money 10 11-21-2008 02:18 AM
Extreme Workers tryan Young Dreamers 23 12-17-2006 02:52 PM
Nothing to fear but fear itself............. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 44 08-17-2004 01:17 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.