Follow Shipping Stocks?

quick scan of the charts

i was looking at this for the last month or so and more bullish on this before, but with the latest financials and looking at the current chart i don't want any piece of this.

$8 may be strechtching it but $5 is a good upside top target for this with a $3 to $5 range
 
did predict that GE would bottom out at around $15 a share when it was still at $19-$22 and there is a post of mine in the bank stocks thread saying that GS would hit $40 - $60 when it was still around $100 a share. and back when NM was around $4 i said it would bottom at around $1.89, was I wrong about that.

can't say i'm an expert, but i am outperforming the SP500 by 20% this year and learning enough everyday that i'll miss what will probably be a very vicious wipeout sometime next year or 2010
 
Another one on the ignore list. These people who think they can predict stock prices or the future don't do much for me.
 
Hey Dawg, look at it this way. Old Al Bundy won't have as much tax loss as we do. Eat your heart out Al.
 
tax losses are a bit nostalgic, reminds me of when i started investing back in 2000. did make a small profit on Amazon that summer.
 
Running_Man said:
Day ship rates, even more for boats that are crossing through the panama canal for some reason are dropping like a stone. I have been watching the BDI index since Brewer posted the link for the site, as I find it a sensitive and very responsive economic activity indicator. It is not foolproof by any means, but a healthy economy would not have shipping rates fall 80%. It shows a drop in orders, which will eventually show up in the economic number down the road. It does not necessarily indicate that the shipping stocks are in concert with the BDI index, since much freight has been contracted for by multi-year contracts but it shows direction pretty well and the shipping stocks tend to follow. Don't see how the BDI could fall much further, but I started to think that when it hit 5000 and it's fallen 38 percent since then in a couple weeks.
Click to expand...

What is amazing is that from Oct 1st when the BDI index had already fallen sooooo far it has fallen another 77 percent. The BDI index did not show any recovery last week during the stock and oil market rallies and instead has made new lows.

This index remains my canary for economic activity and the stock markets, it is not influenced by day traders and reflects what is actually occuring in real time. Until this shows some recovery, outlook for the shippers is disaster and based on the high correlation the BDI has had with the S&P500 this year I fear we are going to see another new low in that as well.
 
isn't the BDI heavily influenced by commodity prices and since they fell the commodity producers can now negotiate lower prices?
 
Dawg54 Post

73ss454 said:
Big move by NM. Another 10 points or so and I'm even.
Click to expand...

Yeaaaa! Time to celebrate.
img_758196_0_0ff25d720d269205de68fc80b5a9b3e4.gif


[MODERATOR EDIT]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Wow, NM is on the march these last few days. What gives ? Last time
I checked there was still a global economic recession.
 
Maybe there is life in the old gal yet...

Hey kids, don't want to interupt the doom & gloom convention, but day rates have suddenly started to spike after being way down there. Rates have shot up so fast that the 120 or so capes that were just sitting at anchor due to low rates have gotten at least half employed. The freight futures market is starting to price in decent rates over the next few years, and there are actually starting to be bids for ships up for sale. Granted, we are a looong way away from the peak (which was unsustainable), but if this is more than a blip it is very good for dry bulker owners.

And if you subscribe to the view of Alan Greenspan that the BDI is an early indicator of future economic activity (I personally am skeptical), this bodes well for the global economy in the next 6 months or so.
 
kumquat said:
Who do you think it will benefit the most?
Click to expand...

Hard to tell. The ones you would think would benefit greatly may be too damaged to make it because the combination of high leverage and high spot exposure has proven pretty lethal. I pretty much know that NM and DSX will make it and do well. EGLE and GNK should. Jury is out on EXM. DRYS is gambling. I'm hapy to own some NM, and I also own some of their bonds.
 
Well I own NM, EGLE, DSX,FRO, and SFL so I hope things turn around. The one I'm down the worst is EGLE. But I need NM to get to around 6 to be even, should have bought more at $1.65 or less. I'm not sure were I'm at with fRO, Ive had it off and on for years and it always pays so much in dividends. The SFL I Own is primarily spin-off from FRO.
 
Dawg54 said:
How about ULTR?
Click to expand...

They are more diversified, since they have some dry bulk, some small tankers, a river barging operation and offshore oil platform supply ships (PSVs). Most of the dry bulk exposure was hedged through 2010. The small tankers are on long term charters. The river barging stuff is usually solid, but has been affected by very low water levels on the Parana river system (not sure how much difference this will make). The PSVs they already have are mostly long term chartered. Another PSV or two will be newly delivered soon and go on long term charter. Dunno about the rest they have on order for 2010 and 2011.

So I think they are making it. The risks with this company are that they have a fair amount of bank debt and they need to fund their expansion program. The company indicated as of the Q3 report that they have raised enough money to fund the expansion program. I think they have kept the banks happy (by paying them), and since they continued to buy back stock in Q4 I take it as a sign that they are not in complete collapse. I own some of the stock and think they will be OK, but it is harder to figure out than NM. They are doing a presentation on 2/11, so we shoudl get an update sioon.
 
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