For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[corn18]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 I disagree. Most famous market timers are billionaires. They just know how. Most people don't. Example...Bill Achman recently made $2 billion shorting the market. Click https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/25/bill...ng-hilton.html What about Warren Buffet? Peter Lynch? Jeffrey Gundlach? Recently, most billionaires have increased their cash position. I like to do the same since I am currently 70% treasuries. Go ahead and believe that the room of market timers is an empty one. There is a reason why some people get rich in the stock market and some people don't. As far as buy and hold and never try to time the market, that strategy is OK for people who do not know how to play the game.

The classic I'm smarter than you argument.

[tdv2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Pop quiz: When is a good time to invest $10K in S&P500 and invest $10K in shorting the S&P500 at the same time? Only an experienced investor knows the answer to this pop quiz question..... Answer: Right now. If the market decline, you make money on the short position in the short term. You make money on the other S&P500 investment after the market recovers in the long term.

Good luck to you....I'm done.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Nope...I am just getting rich from him. Gundlach's net worth is $2 billion dollars from scratch. I tend to listen to successful people.

So you must really listen to Warren Buffett since his net worth is over $70 billion.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Nope...I am just getting rich from him. Gundlach's net worth is $2 billion dollars from scratch. I tend to listen to successful people.

You are not listening to me.

[Shredder]

I'm another poster who hasn't got back in yet. Im currently in short term govt bonds. My investment guru is covid 19, lol.

[targatom2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 I agree. Cash is king during a risky pandemic. I reallocated my portfolio from 60/40 to 100% treasuries in 2019 because the yield curve inverted and Jeffrey Gundlach stated that 2019 is an asset preservation year. This is my best bear market ever because VUSUX 1 year performance is +25% and having treasuries are like having cash. I am 30% stock which I had purchased after the market had declined 30% after the first crash in late March. I am in prime position to buy more stock with my 70% treasuries when I expect the market to crash a second time at the end of this year due to the election and second wave of the pandemic.

you missed the opportunity at Dow 18K. Funny I did exactly opposite as you going from 60/40 to 96/4 at Dow 18k and now up way up enough to cover 2 years of expenses.

[2177V]

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Originally Posted by corn18 The classic I'm smarter than you argument.

Similar to "Billionaires are smarter than clueless investors".

[2177V]

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Originally Posted by vipertom1970 you missed the opportunity at Dow 18K. Funny I did exactly opposite as you going from 60/40 to 96/4 at Dow 18k and now up way up enough to cover 2 years of expenses.

I did change from 100% treasuries to 30% equities/70% treasuries when the Dow hit 18K or 30% drop which was part of my plan: 10% drop=10% equities, 30% drop=30% equities. 96/4 is too risky to me so I admire your risk tolerance which is a lot higher than mine.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by vchan2177 Similar to "Billionaires are smarter than clueless investors".

If you are a billionaire, congrats and more power to you.

If you're not, quit bragging about how great of a market timer you are.

No one likes a bragger, especially us clueless investors..........

[Chuckanut]

This is somewhat off topic since it is about selling bonds, but I thought it fit well with this discussion.

Today, I sold all my medium and long term bond funds. The exceptions are my short term investment grade bond funds, and Vanguard Wellesley. And I may sell Wellesley but I want to take a good look at their bond holdings first. With interest rates at record lows and bonds near their high points I thought it is a good time to take my profits and run. The money is in MM funds for the time being.


FWIW, a while back I sold some international stock fund shares that I was not happy with and booked the losses.

[corn18]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut This is somewhat off topic since it is about selling bonds, but I thought it fit well with this discussion. Today, I sold all my medium and long term bond funds. The exceptions are my short term investment grade bond funds, and Vanguard Wellesley. And I may sell Wellesley but I want to take a good look at their bond holdings first. With interest rates at record lows and bonds near their high points I thought it is a good time to take my profits and run. The money is in MM funds for the time being. FWIW, a while back I sold some international stock fund shares that I was not happy with and booked the losses.

I did the same thing right after the market crash. Still 60/40, but the 40 is in a stable value fund in my 401k instead of a bond index fund. It's returning 1.95% for now, so that works for me. It's kindof weird because I was ok with the 30%+ drop in equities, but a possible correction/bear in bonds freaks me out.

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shredder I'm another poster who hasn't got back in yet. Im currently in short term govt bonds. My investment guru is covid 19, lol.

Short term government bonds are very safe so I agree. I am into long term government bonds which carries a higher risk but higher reward. This is based on my experience during the great recession. I suggest you keep your short term government bonds but you should simply monitor long term government bonds to get some experience during this bear market.

When I was young, my portfolio over the years were 90% passive index funds and 10% active investments which I got experience. I learned hardly anything about investing in passive index funds. Most of my experience and knowledge came from the 10% active investments.

Here is an interesting article on the barbell strategy by Nassim Nicholas Taleb....

https://www.investopedia.com/article...t-strategy.asp

I also found short term government bonds and long term government bonds do compliment each other as Taleb suggests....while intermediate term bonds does not make sense. I agree with Taleb on this point.

My portfolio of 90% passive index funds and 10% active investments are very similar to Taleb's argument of a 90% ultra safe investment being balanced by a 10% high risk high reward investments in the link below.

I do not follow Tabel very much but after I read a little about him, I discovered that his investment strategy and my investment strategy are somewhat similar. This is by accident and probably coincidental.

https://toc.net/2019/10/27/nassim-ta...ment-strategy/

Bottomline: Keep your short term government bonds....but learn how the higher risk long term government bonds work. Example: Imagine buying 1000 shares of long term government bonds this week and learn about how the value of long term government bonds changes for the rest of 2020.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by corn18 I did the same thing right after the market crash. Still 60/40, but the 40 is in a stable value fund in my 401k instead of a bond index fund. It's returning 1.95% for now, so that works for me. It's kindof weird because I was ok with the 30%+ drop in equities, but a possible correction/bear in bonds freaks me out.

If you buy and hold individual bonds, you have 0 interest rate risk because a bond has a par value and a bond fund does not. So you can get NAV erosion from a fund, not from an individual bond. Without a default, it will return to par as it matures.

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead You are not listening to me.

[corn18]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead If you buy and hold individual bonds, you have 0 interest rate risk because a bond has a par value and a bond fund does not. So you can get NAV erosion from a fund, not from an individual bond. Without a default, it will return to par as it matures.

Not sure I'm ready to hold individual bonds. I'm good with my stable value for now. I do have access to the TSP G fund, so that may be an option later. My retirement model uses 2% real return on my 60/40 portfolio, but the fixed income side is a drag right now.

[LRDave]

We have been substantially out of equities since February 20. We still hold about 10% equities. The small equities portion plus about 23% of our assets in plodding but predictable TIAA Traditional has resulted in us "holding serve" compared to inflation and very little volatility.

I am waiting for some sign of improvement on Covid, plus I think I will sit things out until November passes.

[JustVisitingThisPlanet]

With apparently $5 Trillion sitting in money markets those eager to get back in will keep the market propped up but as usual headlines/emotional events will probably cause occasional significant drops, which will be opportunities for those eager to get back in. But the economy could still suck for a long while. That is many w/out jobs and/or many making less than before COVID. Seems to build the case that the market isn't really tied to the economy.

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle If you are a billionaire, congrats and more power to you. If you're not, quit bragging about how great of a market timer you are. No one likes a bragger, especially us clueless investors..........

I am a billionaire. But in Korean Won. Winners tend to brag. It is really human nature. You see that in sports a lot. Sport fans, who did not win, do not like it either.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut This is somewhat off topic since it is about selling bonds, but I thought it fit well with this discussion. Today, I sold all my medium and long term bond funds. The exceptions are my short term investment grade bond funds, and Vanguard Wellesley. And I may sell Wellesley but I want to take a good look at their bond holdings first. With interest rates at record lows and bonds near their high points I thought it is a good time to take my profits and run. The money is in MM funds for the time being. FWIW, a while back I sold some international stock fund shares that I was not happy with and booked the losses.

What are you going to do with the proceeds?

[2177V]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LRDave We have been substantially out of equities since February 20. We still hold about 10% equities. The small equities portion plus about 23% of our assets in plodding but predictable TIAA Traditional has resulted in us "holding serve" compared to inflation and very little volatility. I am waiting for some sign of improvement on Covid, plus I think I will sit things out until November passes.

I agree. November is after the election and we should have less uncertainty by then.