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Old 07-14-2020, 08:56 AM   #641
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I am in my late 60s and I have been buying mutual funds for almost 40 years. I have had a stock fund/bond fund allocation that I have stayed with through thick and thin--through all the recessions, through 9/11, etc. But today I sold all my equities and moved the money to a money market fund for now (it was all in my IRA so no tax consequences). I have never been a market timer but there is something about the market now that just does not seem right to me. I recouped all most all my losses from March and April and just got out. I don't see anything good to come in the near future and at my age I just decided to not take any more risks.

I will decide what to do with all the money market funds in the near future--CDs? Bonds? Treasuries? but I just don't think stocks are the right place for me to be now.
OP, We are somewhat similar (the bold part). The difference, most of our tIRA are bond funds. Did you, by chance, figure out the tax consequence of the sale of your equities(I realize they were in your IRA)? Again, most of our equities are taxed yearly but I have no idea what the tax consequences would be if we sold our equities. Plus, we're on ACA, so we couldn't possibly do that today...but if HC were to change (we'll be 65 in 3 years) to something affordable. Not getting political.
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Old 07-14-2020, 11:55 AM   #642
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I look at historical S&P 500 dividend and historical inflation/ Fed Interest Rates through years of 1930-1950.

For most years one would collect 70-90% if 1930 dividend though there are couple of years where dividend is about 60% of 1930 payout. Those are inflation/deflation adjusted dividends.

Meanwhile cash lost most of its value and Fed rates were 0% or pretty close to 0% just like today. Those are years similar to what we see today. Fed pretty much inflated US out of historically very high debt. So good luck holding cash

Not to mention tax bill that such sale would generate.
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Old 07-14-2020, 12:49 PM   #643
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OP, We are somewhat similar (the bold part). The difference, most of our tIRA are bond funds. Did you, by chance, figure out the tax consequence of the sale of your equities(I realize they were in your IRA)? Again, most of our equities are taxed yearly but I have no idea what the tax consequences would be if we sold our equities. Plus, we're on ACA, so we couldn't possibly do that today...but if HC were to change (we'll be 65 in 3 years) to something affordable. Not getting political.
OP here, everything I sold was in my IRA so I did not need to look at tax consequences.
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Old 07-14-2020, 02:49 PM   #644
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Ask Bill Ackman how he did on Herbalife. In that case he was probably right, but still lost a ton of his personal effort and money. He was also pretty dramatic during Covid. Dude needs to narrow his emotional highs and lows.


I’m sure he was concerned about us stock holders and in no way trying to manipulate the market. [emoji23]
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:53 AM   #645
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I’ve read on here and elsewhere that some were suggesting to buy back in after the expected, horrible 2nd quarter results. So here we are. Who’s buying in now?
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Old 07-31-2020, 11:58 AM   #646
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I recognized my error and fully reinvested May 8th. All I did was lock in a 5% drop from where I would be if I did nothing. Back to:
89% stocks
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:04 PM   #647
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most that sold before March are waiting for the market to calm, dust to settle or a vaccine before jumbling back in.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:20 PM   #648
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Ring a bell when it’s all clear. LOL.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:26 PM   #649
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most that sold before March are waiting for the market to calm, dust to settle or a vaccine before jumbling back in.
Once that news is here what will be S&P 500 value that they will jump back to?
Many sold *during* March.

Pretty much everything went up since March except cash. (Dollar index is down 10%) Don't hold your breath for S&P 500 to go under 2300.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:30 PM   #650
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Today, I bought some GEO (18% forward looking returns)and ATAX (6% federally tax free forward looking returns). Gimme those dividends! Dollar cost averaging.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:34 PM   #651
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I started this thread and I sold in May, just sitting on my cash now. I think there is a long way to go and I am afraid we are just starting to see the economic downturn. I really do not see any economic positives.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:39 PM   #652
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I started this thread and I sold in May, just sitting on my cash now. I think there is a long way to go and I am afraid we are just starting to see the economic downturn. I really do not see any economic positives.
You are very likely (almost certainly) correct.
Question is what is future of USD compared to value of other assets.

That future looks very dim.
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Old 07-31-2020, 12:48 PM   #653
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I came back in and purchased VUG and Fidelity Blue Chip Growth fund which have done very well. O was way down so bought a little; it has come up a lot, didn't want to be a pig so put in a limit order today. SMH, a semiconductor ETF has done well not withstanding INTEL's implosion, I guess someone has to make those chips.

I had kept Wellington and added some Fidelity Balanced - the first has done well this year, Balanced is plodding along but I purchased it after the implosion.

Now shopping for JNJ and more KMB.

Bonds are yielding nothing so I think it is either growth or dividend stocks going forward.
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Old 07-31-2020, 01:01 PM   #654
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So my son came to me last week, and said, "Dad, I want to buy AMD. I found out that their new chips are going to be in both all xbox and playstation 5 consoles. Once they are out, I'm positive AMD stock will go up!" I told him that the news has already been priced in, and it's a very expensive stock, based on multiples. I was glad that he was taking an interest so (with a slight snicker) I told him I'd sell some of his VTI and buy AMD, and we can see what happens.

After AMD's run up of almost 40% in a week, I'm learning that Gen Z has a new term called "flexing" and he's been doing alot of that lately. I am willing to admit I know nothing, so who knows how this market will evolve.
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:11 PM   #655
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You are very likely (almost certainly) correct.
Question is what is future of USD compared to value of other assets.

That future looks very dim.
Over what time frame?
Is anything going on now, not already known?
What about when there is a vaccine?

I can make a case for a bad market ahead or a good market ahead. It depends on your timeframe and what you choose to look at. Does it not?
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Old 07-31-2020, 02:20 PM   #656
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Over what time frame?
Is anything going on now, not already known?
What about when there is a vaccine?

I can make a case for a bad market ahead or a good market ahead. It depends on your timeframe and what you choose to look at. Does it not?
The U.S. economy looks very bad to me for the next year or two. I hope I am wrong.
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Old 07-31-2020, 08:11 PM   #657
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So my son came to me last week, and said, "Dad, I want to buy AMD. I found out that their new chips are going to be in both all xbox and playstation 5 consoles. Once they are out, I'm positive AMD stock will go up!" I told him that the news has already been priced in, and it's a very expensive stock, based on multiples. I was glad that he was taking an interest so (with a slight snicker) I told him I'd sell some of his VTI and buy AMD, and we can see what happens.

After AMD's run up of almost 40% in a week, I'm learning that Gen Z has a new term called "flexing" and he's been doing alot of that lately. I am willing to admit I know nothing, so who knows how this market will evolve.
Sometimes, when you think it is priced in, it really isn't. Both on the up side and the down side. That's why I slapped my hand when it tried to sell my long term Apple holding into earnings.
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Old 08-01-2020, 06:47 PM   #658
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I am still 25 % equities when I am normally 45 - 55%. Still have recouped most of the losses.

I got in on AMD when it was less than $5/share. Sold at $25, then back in at $12. Sold again at $57, then back in at $48 with 1,000 shares. It is now around $77 and going to go over $100.

I know quite a few who made a lot of money on it. I only invested modestly, but still managed some nice earnings.
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Old 08-02-2020, 05:37 AM   #659
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The market positive is all the people waiting
to put all that money back into the market.
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Old 08-02-2020, 06:42 AM   #660
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The market positive is all the people waiting
to put all that money back into the market.
Similar to how I thought a house in cupertino was way too expensive in the late 90s because it was 800k. No way it could be that high, and I decided to wait... and wait... and wait, until I moved out of the bay area.

I still plan to buy a house whenever it goes down to $300k! I'm just not holding my breath.
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