For the first time ever I sold all my stocks

[clobber]

Time to buy back in. You already avoided a 2% loss!

Which actually brings up another point - the (il)liquidity of mutual funds. I know to not time the market and all that, but if someone decided at 13:00 today to sell an S&P500 fund, they would still get dinged for a 2% loss which mostly occurred after 13:00.

 

[njhowie]

Which actually brings up another point - the (il)liquidity of mutual funds. I know to not time the market and all that, but if someone decided at 13:00 today to sell an S&P500 fund, they would still get dinged for a 2% loss which mostly occurred after 13:00.

Mutual fund orders can always be canceled right up until the market close.

 

[Sunset]

Which actually brings up another point - the (il)liquidity of mutual funds. I know to not time the market and all that, but if someone decided at 13:00 today to sell an S&P500 fund, they would still get dinged for a 2% loss which mostly occurred after 13:00.

Yes, that's why if I'm going to sell/buy a fund, in volitile times like this, I do it in the last 10 minutes (which might explain the crazy last hour of the markets as many people/programs do this too )

 

[clobber]

Mutual fund orders can always be canceled right up until the market close.

I guess I mean to say you can't get out before the loss. You can't get out at 13:00.

 

[clobber]

Yes, that's why if I'm going to sell/buy a fund, in volitile times like this, I do it in the last 10 minutes (which might explain the crazy last hour of the markets as many people/programs do this too )

Haha, I know. I watched the market up 2% for an entire day so I did some selling 30 min prior to close. I guess everyone else did and I ended on 0% gain for the day.

 

[LOL!]

Mutual fund orders can always be canceled right up until the market close.

Is that true? At least in the past, Vanguard would not let one cancel a mutual fund order. So maybe each financial institution has their own rules?

 

[pb4uski]

Which actually brings up another point - the (il)liquidity of mutual funds. I know to not time the market and all that, but if someone decided at 13:00 today to sell an S&P500 fund, they would still get dinged for a 2% loss which mostly occurred after 13:00.

That is why I'm going with ETFs from now on wherever possible.

 

[rodi]

I posted a poll on selling vs staying the course.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/poll-stay-the-course-or-sell-it-all-may-2020-a-103829.html#post2428424

 

[njhowie]

Is that true? At least in the past, Vanguard would not let one cancel a mutual fund order. So maybe each financial institution has their own rules?

No problem whatsoever with Fidelity. I routinely put an order in first thing in the morning if I intend to buy or sell. If the market goes against the trade, I have canceled prior to close on a number of occasions.

 

[foxfirev5]

Is that true? At least in the past, Vanguard would not let one cancel a mutual fund order. So maybe each financial institution has their own rules?

In my experience with Fidelity yes you can. With Vanguard no you can't. Not a big deal for me. Fido is for trading and VG for holding.

 

[clobber]

That is why I'm going with ETFs from now on wherever possible.

Me too!

 

[statsman]

That is why I'm going with ETFs from now on wherever possible.

Weren't bond ETFs whacked harder than bond mutual funds back in March?

I guess if you're mostly doing equities, less of an issue.

 

[LOL!]

Weren't bond ETFs whacked harder than bond mutual funds back in March?

Not really or at least they recovered. (Comparing VBTLX and BND here.)

If they were whacked harder, then bond ETFs would be an easy way to buy bargains if one had cash available to do so. However, if one wanted to sell a bond ETF and buy an equity ETF to rebalance, then that might be a problem. If one wasn't selling, then no problem anyways.

 

[pb4uski]

Yeah, it looked like there was some serious divergence for a couple weeks in March, but otherwise the fund and ETF track each other as would be expected.

 

[Lsbcal]

Is that true? At least in the past, Vanguard would not let one cancel a mutual fund order. So maybe each financial institution has their own rules?

Yes, they let people cancel orders. I was told that. But I do not know the exact rules as I almost never have had to cancel an order.

For a mutual fund sell or buy there is no execution issue to it is quite easy to put in the order 15 minutes or even less before closing. I have done that as I trade at the end of a month depending on relative performances.

 

[jldavid47]

Smart move. There are times in history when return of capital is more important than return on capital. This feels like one of those times. I don't call it market timing. I call it risk mitigation.

 

[HI Bill]

That is why I'm going with ETFs from now on wherever possible.

+1. I exchanged all of my MFs for ETFs to that I could at least time the sale when I felt like it. My little version of DMT.

 

[COcheesehead]

No problem whatsoever with Fidelity. I routinely put an order in first thing in the morning if I intend to buy or sell. If the market goes against the trade, I have canceled prior to close on a number of occasions.

+1

 

[Brat]

Market off slightly today, futures don't bode well for tomorrow. I think the Senate hearing today was a dose of reality.

 

[dixonge]

One of the statements I have heard him say a few times "If someone claims that they have a strong feeling about a financial event about to appear, the safe thing to do is not to believe them"

Love this quote, and it applies to this thread as well. After reading the whole thing, and then going back and re-reading the original post, the OP is *not* even asking a question. She just stated her position, including her opinions about the state and future of the market:

"I have never been a market timer but there is something about the market now that just does not seem right to me."

"I don't see anything good to come in the near future..."

I think that this is the reason so many have addressed the 'market timing' aspect of this. It's one thing to adjust one's AA based on a shifting risk tolerance. But it also means that you didn't have your risk tolerance dialed in, or sorted out.

"at my age I just decided to not take any more risks."

Most financial advice I have seen lays out a road map of AA based on risk and age. As you move from young and employed to older and retired, you shift from equities to fixed investments. Not because of events, but because of a plan/schedule. Anything else really is fear-based and generally does not work out well. Hopefully you can get your AA and risk tolerance all sorted out and make future moves on a more calm, rational basis.

It's the issue that the stock market from the Great Depression took 29 years to recover, I don't think I have that long....

We do not live in a world where the economy and financial markets resemble, in any way, those of a century ago. Why use that as a measuring stick?

I posted a poll on selling vs staying the course.

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/poll-stay-the-course-or-sell-it-all-may-2020-a-103829.html#post2428424

77% staying the course (so far) - thank you for posting that poll. Funny, no one ever starts a thread about "hey, I'm not changing anything - what do you all think?" LOL

I was lucky I sold everything I could without tax consequence before the virus hit. I just looked at the years and years of gains and thought it’s enough. My target buy back is when the s&p hits 30% off all time highs. I believe it’s coming, but if it doesn’t that’s ok too.

I saw that another poster mentioned that the S&P hit 34% off the highs and asked if you got back in. Didn't see an answer, maybe I missed it? Just curious...

 

[RenoJay]

I am in my late 60s and I have been buying mutual funds for almost 40 years. I have had a stock fund/bond fund allocation that I have stayed with through thick and thin--through all the recessions, through 9/11, etc. But today I sold all my equities and moved the money to a money market fund for now (it was all in my IRA so no tax consequences). I have never been a market timer but there is something about the market now that just does not seem right to me. I recouped all most all my losses from March and April and just got out. I don't see anything good to come in the near future and at my age I just decided to not take any more risks.

I will decide what to do with all the money market funds in the near future--CDs? Bonds? Treasuries? but I just don't think stocks are the right place for me to be now.

Only time will tell if the decision was good or bad from an investment perspective, but I can certainly say I know a number of very long term buy-and-hold, don't-mess-with-the-portfolio folks who've recently made the same decision you have.

 

[COcheesehead]

I financial planner podcast that I enjoy said the other day if you have the front end of your retirement covered and the back end, the middle will take care of itself. To me that means short term cash and bonds and long term equity/fixed income.
If you look at your money as one big blob, it looks more confusing.

 

[Speed Racer]

Back in January I dumped most of my emergency fund into the market. Maybe not a wise decision, but I did leave a small portion in the bank account. I nearly sold a few times when it dropped down to around -10%. It really did test my risk tolerance when it's money I might want to use in the next year. I stuck to the plan and it's back above my purchase price and about 4% off its all time high.

I'm much younger than most of you, but I don't ever really see a reason to get out of equities unless you're right around retirement age. After that I think a reasonable strategy is to move your spending for the next one or maybe two years out of equities into something less risky. I think the market has become more detached than ever from the economy since 08-09. Why? It knows the government will do whatever it takes to prop it up. People say this time is different (like always) and that may be true, but the fed is going to keep the market from sinking completely.

Finally, the market is going to pick winners and losers regardless of how the company is doing financially. Why does Tesla get to be an $800 stock while Ford languishes around $5? Simply because they have good electric cars (read battery technology) and no pensions and such to worry about? Well Ford is coming out with the Mustang Mach E that will be on par with a comparable Tesla and is home to one of the most profitable vehicles in America, the F-150 that sells 800,000 or more units ever year. But Tesla is cooler, so ok. It's all about figuring out who those winners are. There are obviously more reasonable winners than Tesla, but you get my point.

That last bit didn't have much to do with the thread, but was a little rant I wanted to get off my chest.

 

[PatrickA5]

I think the market has become more detached than ever from the economy since 08-09. Why? It knows the government will do whatever it takes to prop it up. People say this time is different (like always) and that may be true, but the fed is going to keep the market from sinking completely.

I agree that the Fed will try to keep the market from sinking completely - especially leading up to the election. It's after the election that concerns me. The Fed will be out of bullets and the desire to continue throwing out trillions of dollars will decline. Obviously, the hope is the economy will be going gang-busters by then. But, what if it isn't? At that point, I can see a plunge.

 

[Dtail]

I agree that the Fed will try to keep the market from sinking completely - especially leading up to the election. It's after the election that concerns me. The Fed will be out of bullets and the desire to continue throwing out trillions of dollars will decline. Obviously, the hope is the economy will be going gang-busters by then. But, what if it isn't? At that point, I can see a plunge.

Those are my thoughts too.
Although if there is a vaccine out by then, even if not administered until sometime in 2021, that could also have a softening effect.