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For those who are waiting to get back into the market...
Old 06-16-2022, 12:40 PM   #1
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For those who are waiting to get back into the market...

... how much longer are you planning to wait? Until after the midterms, or Ukraine is resolved, or the supply chain is corrected?

Here's my take: eventually, the SP500 will go back to its January 2022 high. It might be later this year, or next year, or 2024/2025... but it will get there. And looking at where the SP500 is right now, that will represent a 32% net gain (from today).

I realize the market will almost definitely go down further, but you're never going to time it at its absolute lowest... and I'll take a 32% ROI any day.

Any thoughts on this? I'm not going to pull the trigger today but I think I'm getting pretty close.
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Old 06-16-2022, 12:42 PM   #2
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Not really planning to get back in cause I never got out.
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Old 06-16-2022, 12:46 PM   #3
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What's your timeline need for the money and end goal is what I would ask myself? I pulled the plug a year ago, wife still working. Watching what is happening has been very stressful despite not needing portfolio for withdrawals.

I am slowly DCA'ing extra cash now but it hurts to keep watching even those go down given how brutal the rest is down. Of course in hindsight would have pulled it all out 12/31/2022 and probably average 10% back in a month for next 10 months. But that is fantasy land.
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Old 06-16-2022, 12:48 PM   #4
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I will probably start dollar cost averaging stocks at a 40% drop.
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Old 06-16-2022, 12:49 PM   #5
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We are 5 years away from 70. We will start collecting SS and will need to pull very little from stocks at that point. I am going to put some of my more conservative investments into stock index ETFs.

I keep looking at the chart of the stock market and see the rapid rise over the last decade or so. Now the punchbowl has been taken away and it looks like we have barely touched the froth.

I am going to wait a bit longer before I start moving money in.
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Old 06-16-2022, 12:53 PM   #6
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So if it takes the SP two or even three years to get back to it's recent high, and there is 8 to 10% inflation for each year until it gets there, is it really back?


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Old 06-16-2022, 12:58 PM   #7
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Not really planning to get back in cause I never got out.
+1

I watch the market to decide when to buy more, or to shift to different sectors.
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Old 06-16-2022, 01:00 PM   #8
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Monday I shifted from 75% stocks/ 25% bonds to 80%/20% since the market was down over 20%. I'll shift another 5 percentage points at 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40% down if that becomes a possibility. I'll return to my normal 75/25 after a full recovery.

I've done something similar with individual stocks, though looking for something more like 50% dips.

This lets you capture a little bit of the dip without knowing the timing or depth of the dip. I don't go below 75% stocks, so I'm never sitting out and waiting to return.
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Old 06-16-2022, 01:06 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by mistermike40 View Post
... ....

I realize the market will almost definitely go down further, but you're never going to time it at its absolute lowest... and I'll take a 32% ROI any day.

Any thoughts on this? I'm not going to pull the trigger today but I think I'm getting pretty close.
If you feel that the market will almost definitely go down further, why not wait at least until you feel the market may go up or it may go down.
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Old 06-16-2022, 01:16 PM   #10
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Monday I shifted from 75% stocks/ 25% bonds to 80%/20% since the market was down over 20%. I'll shift another 5 percentage points at 25%, 30%, 35%, and 40% down if that becomes a possibility. I'll return to my normal 75/25 after a full recovery.

I've done something similar with individual stocks, though looking for something more like 50% dips.

This lets you capture a little bit of the dip without knowing the timing or depth of the dip. I don't go below 75% stocks, so I'm never sitting out and waiting to return.
While I do not do Tactical Allocation in a rigid manner like you do, I agree with the approach.

There's never a need to go all in or all out. You only do that when you are cockily sure that the market goes up or goes down immediately from here.

It's more about probabilities. The more stocks go down, the higher the chance they have bottomed out. And if they don't go down as much as 50% and bounce back before they get there, it's OK with me too. I am never out of the market.
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Old 06-16-2022, 01:43 PM   #11
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I have been buying more ETF and whenever the market drops 4% from my previous buy, I buy more. Once the market is 30% below its high, I will increase my purchase amount. Once it is 40% from its high, I will go all in with my remaining dry powder. If it never reaches 40% below the high, I am ok with that too.
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Old 06-16-2022, 02:17 PM   #12
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Nobody is ringing the bell - go in
When I am looking at some European stock market indices I like to wait for a real crash. Like going down 50% compared with all time high.
Some stocks managed to drop by 50% or more. The indices did not crash down yet.
Just by thinking at Ukraine, rising interest rates, rising energy costs - I expect a proper crash to happen.
For the moment I am going long in Puts while watching stocks going down.
The economies itself seem to do okay. I did not see many profit warnings yet.
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Old 06-16-2022, 03:26 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Car-Guy View Post
So if it takes the SP two or even three years to get back to it's recent high, and there is 8 to 10% inflation for each year until it gets there, is it really back?


Asking for a friend. NNTR
Realize unless you or us, in general, are not part of the 0.01% and/or the billionaire ($,$$$,$$$,$$$,$$$) club, we are screwed.

And just be glad it's only going to take a two or three years to get back.....or are we going to end up like Japan did (actually still is)?
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Old 06-16-2022, 03:41 PM   #14
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Realize unless you or us, in general, are not part of the 0.01% and/or the billionaire ($,$$$,$$$,$$$,$$$) club, we are screwed.

And just be glad it's only going to take a two or three years to get back.....or are we going to end up like Japan did (actually still is)?
Yeah I’ve been worried about a Japan scenario here for a long time, less so here than in 2008-09 since the issue is inflation and japans was deflation although if the fed goes too far…
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Old 06-16-2022, 03:43 PM   #15
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I’ve never been into timing the market. It’s really hard to be right once, but timing means you have to be right twice. Hard to do that.
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Old 06-16-2022, 03:57 PM   #16
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I'm not into trying to time the market, at all. However things came to a head in January, decided to go 10/90 AA. Right now I don't need to dip into my nest egg for anything, but with inflation who knows what the future holds? I know I slept better at night with that AA.

Now, I see it as an opportunity. Again I'm not trying to "time" the market... I have no idea how low it will go, though I don't see it decreasing 50% from where it is now (but I doubt Japan saw their crash either). I'll be happy with these (eventual) gains.

And no, I haven't moved anything yet but might tomorrow. We'll see.
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Old 06-16-2022, 03:57 PM   #17
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In my mind the fall to about 20% is just a bigger than usual market correction.
Drops below that get interesting. I will not bet my retirement on being right, but I may nibble a bit at -25% and lower.

This will be doing the DCA dance with the Bear. Only the Bear can do a lot worse than stepping you your toes.
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Old 06-16-2022, 04:04 PM   #18
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Whenever I've been out I didn't wait for this or that event as a "go" signal. If it's the stock market you're concerned with, the stock market will give you whatever signal you need.

What makes you think it will see the Jan 2022 high by 2025? How long did it take to see the 1929 high? or the 1973 high? or the 2000/2008 high?

What's the big deal with or the necessity to buy at the absolute bottom anyway? Nobody needs to do that. You just to get a better deal not the best conceivable deal.
I see nothing out there or on the horizon that would make me want to own stocks today. But I know I will not just wake up some day and say: What? the SP500 is at 5760? How did that happen?

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If you feel that the market will almost definitely go down further, why not wait at least until you feel the market may go up or it may go down.
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Old 06-16-2022, 04:08 PM   #19
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When the Dow gets back to 6,469.95 I’m all in.
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Old 06-16-2022, 04:35 PM   #20
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I moved 20% out of my work retirement stable value fund (fixed interest) into index funds, first 10% when the S&P was down about 15% and then another 10% when it was down about 21%. The fixed interest fund had been paying 3%, which was above inflation, which is why I had quite a bit in there, but they lowered it to 1.36% over a year ago, and inflation went up as well, so I'm trying to migrate funds back to stocks on these dips.
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