Future of Economy and Inflation

[Montecfo]

Will this mean restaurants, stores and whoever actually lower prices? This is something I am curious about from those who lived through inflation in past.

Or are prices so sticky, these prices are the new norm. Just keeping it simple I find it hard to believe the local hot dog stand guy goes to his new high wage employees and says you are going back to $7/hr from $15/hr and we just lowered our menu prices 30%?

Maybe though? I am just trying to think about the future cost of living a bit, or should I say stop panicking so much.

If underlying costs go down, so will prices. So gas prices will fall, food prices will fall, building materials will fall (they already are). Housing will fall.

But wage-based costs will not fall but could grow more slowly.

 

[RetireBy90]

If underlying costs go down, so will prices. So gas prices will fall, food prices will fall, building materials will fall (they already are). Housing will fall.

But wage-based costs will not fall but could grow more slowly.

Interesting thought here, what prices will retreat if inflation is controlled ?

For the sake of conversation, assuming Russia invasion goes away and supply chain/China lockdowns go away.

Gas or oil will come back down below $5/Gal, commodities should also fall from highs. Cars and Trucks should also come down closer to historical prices. I'm thinking that the price of packaged foods will be slower to return and I think rent is more sticky along with wages.

What other prices for retail will fall and which will remain at new higher prices ?

 

[harllee]

If people start being laid off and loosing their jobs they may have to find jobs paying less. So wages could also fall. That has happened in other recessions.

 

[MichaelB]

If underlying costs go down, so will prices. So gas prices will fall, food prices will fall, building materials will fall (they already are). Housing will fall.

But wage-based costs will not fall but could grow more slowly.

I agree. Commodity goods prices rise but also fall. Wages are sticky, and while jobs can be lost, wages rarely decline. So prices of manufactured goods and services, such as autos or professional services, are stickier and less likely to decline.

 

[Magus]

If people start being laid off and loosing their jobs they may have to find jobs paying less. So wages could also fall. That has happened in other recessions.

True but the big difference right now is the imbalance in the market with 5-6 million more jobs than job seekers. Usually those are fairly close. We need to burn thru the slack just to get to normal. Additionally, with Inflation growing faster than wages, labor is getting proportionally cheaper

 

[unclemick]

- 12.66% YTD on 'my lead sled dog' funding my retirement - 70/30 ish bond /stock wise. Have not touched it (Target fund) since 2006. Full auto letting those Vanguard computers rebalance.

HOWEVER! I am successfully digging a hole to China via my 'mad money' post RMD and not spent during Covid era. Down versus the S&P even. Hope is post shots and both boosters - travel , food and entertainment more and stocks less.

Heh heh heh - can't beat the computers nor am I smarter than a 5th grader.

P.S. 29 ER years and counting. I can survive my mistakes and not be too serious.

 

[JBTX]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539012452905627650

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...irs-up-hornets-nest-11655826309?mod=home-page


Larry Summers saying we need two years of unemployment at 7.5%, or 5 years at 5%, to get inflation under control. Once again, not making too many friends with his forecasts. Perhaps a bit exaggerated but I think he is more right than wrong on this.

 

[ncbill]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539012452905627650

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...irs-up-hornets-nest-11655826309?mod=home-page


Larry Summers saying we need two years of unemployment at 7.5%, or 5 years at 5%, to get inflation under control. Once again, not making too many friends with his forecasts. Perhaps a bit exaggerated but I think he is more right than wrong on this.

Well, my last kid got a LEO offer (I will make him watch ALL the Police Academy movies before he goes) so I think both he and his brother (active duty military) won't need to worry for awhile.

 

[Koolau]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1539012452905627650

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/r...irs-up-hornets-nest-11655826309?mod=home-page


Larry Summers saying we need two years of unemployment at 7.5%, or 5 years at 5%, to get inflation under control. Once again, not making too many friends with his forecasts. Perhaps a bit exaggerated but I think he is more right than wrong on this.

Well, honesty is the best policy - except in politics!

 

[NW-Bound]

Any day now, a ReWahoo asteroid will put all our worries to moot.

Until then, I've got to remember to drag my *ss to Arby's to try the Wagyu burger that other posters have been raving about. Once that asteroid's arrival is announced, nobody will be selling any Wagyu burger.

Hah, just happened upon my old post, so might as well give an update.

My daughter and son-in-law wanted to visit us on Father's Day. Asked what we liked to eat. Told her about the Arby's Wagyu Burger deal, and that would make a simple nice meal. They picked up the burgers on the way to our place for a Sunday lunch.

The burgers were bad. The beef patties were thin, and overcooked. Our concensus was that without being told it was Wagyu, nobody would know it from an ordinary burger, and a poorly prepared one at that. Good thing she only paid $6.xx for one.

It was likely that the local Arby's messed up the burgers.

We still had a nice lunch together, and that was most important.

 

[Turbo29]

Hah, just happened upon my old post, so might as well give an update.

My daughter and son-in-law wanted to visit us on Father's Day. Asked what we liked to eat. Told her about the Arby's Wagyu Burger deal, and that would make a simple nice meal. They picked up the burgers on the way to our place for a Sunday lunch.

The burgers were bad. The beef patties were thin, and overcooked. Our concensus was that without being told it was Wagyu, nobody would know it from an ordinary burger, and a poorly prepared one at that. Good thing she only paid $6.xx for one.

It was likely that the local Arby's messed up the burgers.

We still had a nice lunch together, and that was most important.

I'm not sure exactly how they prepare the burger but Arby's does not have grills (they do have ovens) in their restaurants. This may explain your experience.

 

[unclemick]

This month - 48 years ago. I had a Burger King ?Whopper? in North Alabama. Drove 8 hours or so to New Orleans and ate the very same Burger King meal. Difference was night and day. No idea what they did in New Orleans.

Heh heh heh - Still remember.

 

[JoeWras]

This month - 48 years ago. I had a Burger King ?Whopper? in North Alabama. Drove 8 hours or so to New Orleans and ate the very same Burger King meal. Difference was night and day. No idea what they did in New Orleans.

Heh heh heh - Still remember.

40 years ago, while in college, we called it the "BK Drunk Tank Lounge."

 

[Phroig]

Hah, just happened upon my old post, so might as well give an update.

My daughter and son-in-law wanted to visit us on Father's Day. Asked what we liked to eat. Told her about the Arby's Wagyu Burger deal, and that would make a simple nice meal. They picked up the burgers on the way to our place for a Sunday lunch.

The burgers were bad. The beef patties were thin, and overcooked. Our concensus was that without being told it was Wagyu, nobody would know it from an ordinary burger, and a poorly prepared one at that. Good thing she only paid $6.xx for one.

It was likely that the local Arby's messed up the burgers.

We still had a nice lunch together, and that was most important.

I had a similar experience. I try to limit red meat to a few times a year, so I was looking forward to the burger. The patty was dry, and they used too much sauce.

 

[Fermion]

How could you people honestly believe you would get a good burger from a Arbys

 

[Phroig]

How could you people honestly believe you would get a good burger from a Arbys

It had the seal of approval from the connoisseurs on the BTD thread.

 

[aja8888]

This month - 48 years ago. I had a Burger King ?Whopper? in North Alabama. Drove 8 hours or so to New Orleans and ate the very same Burger King meal. Difference was night and day. No idea what they did in New Orleans.

Heh heh heh - Still remember.

48 years ago, and you still remember that burger? You were young then and didn't know what a good burger tasted like.

Now, you are old, slow and have had too many good meals to spoil your taste. I'll bet ANY fast food burger would not be to your liking now!

48 years ago I can't even remember which wife I was married to at that time, let alone a burger I ate somewhere.

 

[harllee]

I must admit I have never eaten at Arby's and I have no plans to do so .

 

[Koolau]

I must admit I have never eaten at Arby's and I have no plans to do so .

Go for the shakes! Amazing. Also love the curly fires. I still call them squirrelly fries 'cause it still irritates our daughter (who introduced us to them 20 years ago.) YMMV

 

[dmpi]

Back in the 90s Arby's would have five roast beef sandwiches for five bucks with coupon. That and the curly fries and the shake. It was good stuff!

 

[Chuckanut]

I must admit I have never eaten at Arby's and I have no plans to do so .

I like the traditional Arby's sandwich with the thing cuts of meat and a bit of their sauce. That said, the nearest Arby's is just far enough away that I haven't had one for over a decade. I am not willing to drive there just for the sandwich. Maybe they've changed? I hope not.

 

[GenXguy]

Back in the 90s Arby's would have five roast beef sandwiches for five bucks with coupon. That and the curly fries and the shake. It was good stuff!

I remember that so well - hard to believe it was so long ago. I used to get the beef and cheddar, though. Have had Arby's sandwiches only a few times in the last several years, yet no roast beef, usually the rueben.

 

[GenXguy]

Go for the shakes! Amazing.

I got shakes several times last year, both the jamocha and chocolate, and really liked them. I've only gotten one this year, the jamocha, and it had very little flavor - was disappointed. Hopefully, it was the exception, and I'll try again one of these days. Actually I did, but they said the ice cream machine was down.

 

[LarryG]

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It had the seal of approval from the connoisseurs on the BTD thread.

I can be vuh bhh. VMAs oh [emoji849]b

 

[MuirWannabe]

Stopped in an Arbys today to give the Wagyu burger a try. They said it’s no longer available. Was a short term promotion only. So I had a a regular roast beef sandwich and won’t be doing that ever again