Gamestop?

My dad taught me that many (not all) gamblers blew the dough on winning and stayed mum on the losses. He had a card in his wallet with his weekly poker gains and losses. More losses than wins, but the wins were big enough to more than offset the losses. It was a 'friendly' game, mostly an excuse to drink and smoke cigars (my dad did neither). But I digress. The point is that one might consider netting losses before blowing the dough. And it can be hard to do in this kind of trading because it seems that success means avoiding the rare really bad trade. I knew two guys that thought they could trade for a living and both tell the same story...they made money on nearly every trade, or at least lost peanuts, but then there were those one or two trades that blew 6 months profit. Both went back to work for the man.

That sounds like a recency bias, they probably became overconfident after that long winning streak and blew past their position size limits. IIRC it's what killed LTCM during the 1998 Asian crisis (I remember that one well). If you hold the line on what you put into any one name, a few wipeouts won't matter if you score big on one or two. In my experience you can't avoid really bad trades if you want to have a chance at great returns-- you just dilute them with true diversification. My dad got burned badly on a Texas bank decades ago, so my hard limit on any initial outlay is 0.1% of net investments (most are far less; ESOP is my only exception).

I bought the single PUT BBBY 40 - Feb 5 for $6 on last Wed, Jan 27, when BBBY was trading around $50. The stock succumbed after that, and today it is down to about where it was before all this Gamestop short squeeze started.

Rather than wait till tomorrow when the option expires to see if I can get a few more bucks, I sold it today for $13.20. BBBY closed today at $27.01, so I sold the put at about its intrinsic value.

I'm diamond hands on BBBY, up a bit since I bought shares Christmas Eve of 2018. They paid five quarterly dividends until Covid hit. But paper hands on MGNI, I took the early surge this morning to close out what was "Rubicon Project" a year before I bought BBBY. Normally my positions are way more red than green but lately it's the other way around, although much of my green is "only just". The widespread large jumps in the sub-pennies (I re-buy these for a few bucks after taxloss harvesting and sort positions by %return ascending to serve as a constant reminder to obey my hard limit) I've never seen before and suggests speculative fever is especially hot now. IMO if this is FOMO, it screams late-stage bubble.
 
Really , those professionals weren't so smart, they got lucky. They were holding a dead stock and the crazies at WSB's not only bailed them out but gave them a windfall.

Hey, works for me. I've always said, I'd rather be lucky than good. YMMV
 
Hey, works for me. I've always said, I'd rather be lucky than good. YMMV

I've always tried to be good, so that I may get lucky.

It does not work reliably. Or perhaps I was bad, and thought I was good.
 
I've always tried to be good, so that I may get lucky.

It does not work reliably. Or perhaps I was bad, and thought I was good.

Your post reminded me of that Clint Eastwood line: A man's got to know his limitations.

I think I know my limitations and that's why I don't do too much stock picking, but I do some, but I am not that good so I mostly buy mutual funds. Still, this market has been really, really good to me the last year.
 
Really , those professionals weren't so smart, they got lucky. They were holding a dead stock and the crazies at WSB's not only bailed them out but gave them a windfall.

Strange, I never connected the name in blue with the rest of the gang the way this picture shows:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mohamed-el-erian-on-the-game-stop-short-squeeze-134526240.html
I need a nickel to break even on the leader of the pack, I don't need to see what spring is like on Jupiter and Mars. Bought it a decade ago so it's been a very long ride, and no more OMY this time because I need the tax loss now if I don't get my nickel.

If you're into numerology, I noticed an interesting pattern in the price spikes of UUU, which I thought was on the list but apparently is not. Since October 2020 what happens when the 29th of the month is on a trading day? But there's no 29th this month, so will it pop on March 1 or March 29 or neither? Maybe WSB knows? Careful out there, could be an ambush. I exited door #3 and won't be going back.
 
An interesting tidbit about the Gamestop fiasco that I found in an article on Bloomberg:

On Jan. 28, the day after GameStop Corp. mania hit its crescendo on the back of a short squeeze for the record books, about $359 million worth of shares were caught in limbo.

More than 1 million shares were deemed failed-to-deliver that day due either to buyers lacking cash to complete purchases or sellers not having the shares to settle trades, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission data.

“Fails-to-deliver can occur for a number of reasons on both long and short sales,” reads a disclaimer on the SEC website. “Therefore, fails-to-deliver are not necessarily the result of short selling, and are not evidence of abusive short selling or ‘naked’ short selling.”
 
So tomorrow there will be a hearing in congress about GameStop and one of the witnesses will be Reddit user who is kind of representing the retail investors and also being sued for his apparent influence on the market (https://markets.businessinsider.com...ies-fraud-reddit-keith-gill-2021-2-1030093901). I’ll wait for the hearing to develop an opinion but in the meantime this is the statement he submitted to Congress:

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/BA/BA00/20210218/111207/HHRG-117-BA00-Wstate-GillK-20210218.pdf
 
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I've admitted before to being ignorant about how the market in general and Gamestop stock specifically works. Having said that, I fail to see how one guy with a lap top could ever be held responsible for what happened when (apparently) the Big Boys got caught with their pants down. I think it reveals a lot more about hedge funds than the guy they're going after. Again, I may well be wrong, but I just see more of a David and Goliath here than some master manipulator. I could be wrong. I was once, so YMMV.

Don't sue me bro'!
 
GME is +103.94% during the last hour and up by another 48% after hour! Wow.
 
GME is +103.94% during the last hour and up by another 48% after hour! Wow.
Too funny.

Now it's up 91% to 175.48 in the afterhours. All over a tweeted ice cream.
 
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So it looks like with the market drop yesterday there was a "flee to safety" of GME. :D
 
Gamestop just one among many symptoms. Buffet's right hand man thinks things are going to "end badly": https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffetts-hand-man-says-us-233811720.html
Buffett / Berkshire may be smart, but he's far from being perfect and has made many errors in his investments. He avoided Apple, though he got in very late and then unloaded and stock continued to climb. He got in on JPM late, held it bailed out and stock has been on a major run since then. Many other cases where they zigged when they should have zagged. Just look at 1 year performance of Berkshire against the major indexes, has underperformed over 1 and 5 years. So just shows that they get it wrong more often than the broad markets. Screenshot_20210226-131053_ETRADE.jpg
 
Gamestop just one among many symptoms. Buffet's right hand man thinks things are going to "end badly": https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffetts-hand-man-says-us-233811720.html


Bulls always end badly and he said he has no idea when this one will. OK. I thought his was the (only) intriguing comment among his otherwise obvious comments:

“The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. That’s one that you can easily arrange. If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be miserable all your life,” Munger said.
 
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Bulls always end badly and he said he has no idea when this one will. OK. I thought his was the (only) intriguing comment among his otherwise obvious comments:

“The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. That’s one that you can easily arrange. If you have unrealistic expectations, you’re going to be miserable all your life,” Munger said.


Speaking of high expectations, I just saw an article on Bloomberg pointing out that the most traded option on the market yesterday, Thursday 2/25, was $800 call option expiring today 2/26. GME was in the $40 earlier in the week, and jumped up to as high as $177 yesterday. Obviously, a lot of traders wanted to gamble that it would get to $800 today, just a day later.

GME is at $119 at this writing. There's only another hour for it to climb to $800. So, it looks highly unlikely, and that's an understatement.

OK, how about next Friday, or the Friday after that? Options at $800 were being bought, despite not being cheap. Buy, buy, buy... :)
 
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The above $800 call option with expiry 2/26 was 1c earlier, jumped up to more than $2 yesterday, and going back down to 1c now before expiring soon.

A lot of people placed the $200 minimum bet (1 contract covers 100 shares) for a pipe dream. Open interest is more than 24,000 contracts.

They are now betting on $800 by next Friday. The premium is currently $3.45/share. More than 25,000 contracts have been opened.

Maybe allow another week for GME to reach $800, Friday 3/12 ? It will cost you $5.6/share.
 
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In my best Robin Williams imitation of "Good Morning Vietnam!"



NEWS FLASH: GME to replace Bitcoin!

(YMMV)
 
So as is the case with the Stock Market, a perceived value can be capitalized on to create real value. Gamestop is going to sell 3.5 million shares and add One Billion dollars in capital to the corporation. Now this is a billion that could not have existed just a couple months ago, and as Elon Musk has shown, it is more important to sell stock to grow a company than sell a product. Just have products people seem to desire and a promise to provide them in the future and you can capitalize on them.

The intersesting is the S&P500 index investors had to buy Gamestop in 2007 @ 49 when it was added to the S&P500 and then sold @ 36 when it was dropped in 2016. Maybe they get to buy it back in a year or so at 150-200>?
 
The intersesting is the S&P500 index investors had to buy Gamestop in 2007 @ 49 when it was added to the S&P500 and then sold @ 36 when it was dropped in 2016. Maybe they get to buy it back in a year or so at 150-200>?


A good reason to hold Total US Index instead?

I suspect the drag is minimal. I wonder if it’s ever been measured?
 
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