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07-18-2019, 04:11 PM
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#101
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
You could make this same post/argument every day for the past 25+ years. What makes today special?
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What makes today's debt special compared to the past is based on the following opinion by Jim Roger who is a famous international investor with a new worth of $300M:
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...w%3DKitco-NEWS
Jim Rogers and I share the same bearish views: The USA is in debt and investors should be concerned after 2019.
The USA has been #1 in the last 25+ years so other countries have "confidence" in the USA to pay back the debt. This is what you have been observing.
However, unless the USA can manage their debt better by reducing spending, then there may be a "tipping point" when other countries may lose "confidence" in the USA who is now following the same path as Greece, Italy and Japan.
Once foreign investors pulls their money out of the US stock market or bankruptcies occurs around the world, it may get ugly. As Jim Rogers stated, a domino effect can occur and before you know it, it is too late.
What is the bottom line IMO? Be very very careful. Do not assume the high government debt will have zero potential impact on the stock market and your investment.
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07-18-2019, 04:51 PM
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#102
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,493
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__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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07-18-2019, 05:00 PM
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#103
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I don't know if Jim Rogers is a permabear or not, but I thought he was a billionaire.
Hmmm... $300M now? Maybe his investments in commodity and raw material did not work out well.
But that does not necessarily mean his current prediction is wrong.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-18-2019, 05:02 PM
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#104
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,297
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When has Jim Rogers predicted a good outcome and what is his rate of prediction success?
I predict we will have a recession in the next 30 years......
__________________
TGIM
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07-18-2019, 05:07 PM
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#105
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I don't follow Jim Rogers' investment advice, but his autobiography books on world traveling experiences were good read.
I have not heard much about him for quite a few years. But then, I no longer watch CNBC, nor have access to the channel.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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07-18-2019, 05:19 PM
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#107
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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Gas bag
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07-18-2019, 05:29 PM
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#108
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177
What makes today's debt special compared to the past is based on the following opinion by Jim Roger who is a famous international investor with a new worth of $300M:
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...w%3DKitco-NEWS
Jim Rogers and I share the same bearish views: The USA is in debt and investors should be concerned after 2019.
The USA has been #1 in the last 25+ years so other countries have "confidence" in the USA to pay back the debt. This is what you have been observing.
However, unless the USA can manage their debt better by reducing spending, then there may be a "tipping point" when other countries may lose "confidence" in the USA who is now following the same path as Greece, Italy and Japan.
Once foreign investors pulls their money out of the US stock market or bankruptcies occurs around the world, it may get ugly. As Jim Rogers stated, a domino effect can occur and before you know it, it is too late.
What is the bottom line IMO? Be very very careful. Do not assume the high government debt will have zero potential impact on the stock market and your investment.
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IIRC there are U.S. states with larger economies than most countries.
U.S. dollar remains the world's reserve currency...nothing has come along to replace that, not even the Euro, even though plenty have tried to come up with an alternative.
And don't forget the enormous regulatory power the U.S. has with regards to international monetary movements...make the U.S. mad enough and they'll boot you off SWIFT (i.e. no access to electronic monetary transfers) like they did with Iran.
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07-18-2019, 05:39 PM
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#109
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,358
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Quote:
I laughed out loud too. Jim Rogers is a joke.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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07-18-2019, 05:45 PM
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#110
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Caldas da Rainha, Portugal
Posts: 583
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoReadyToRetire
But now I’m at that magical point where I could retire based on what I have now, according to Firecalc. So I thought it’d be good to have a bird in the hand at this point, instead of leaving it alone, having us go to war again or something causing a stomach-turning plunge, and then having to wait anxiously for months or even years for my balance in that account to return to where it is now.
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About a year before I retired I acted on my belief that the hardest thing to recover from, both financially and emotionally, is a large drop early in retirement of the value of your investments. Plus I believed 'Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered'. Went from about 85-90% in stocks to about 50% (memory is hazy) in retirement accounts. In my taxable account, I went from ?? to 85% MMF and short term bonds of the highest quality. A year later the 2008 global economic meltdown occurred. I hadn't attempted to time the market. I did great avoiding being a pig by taking half of the bird in hand. Retired in Nov. 2008.
One thing I learned in my 20s was it's very easy to criticize an investment move out of the market when it's someone else's money.
__________________
ER Oct 2008 at age 54. An expat enjoying a mild 4 season climate after 11 years in the tropics.
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07-18-2019, 05:53 PM
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#111
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St. Charles
Posts: 3,915
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronstar
I went all cash at Y2K. I thought that the date related meltdown could be real. As it turned out, I timed the all cash conversion to hit a downturn. Didn't time too well getting back in though.
My boss and I had similar 401k balances when I went all cash. He was ahead by $100k when I got back in.
I'll never do that again.
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Yeah, its "easy" to know when to get out. But the real trick is "when to get back in".
The last time around I thought (briefly) about going all cash. Dow was down about 20% at that time. But then the question was always, When do I but again?
Thankfully, I stalled long enough to not do anything.
__________________
If your not living on the edge, you're taking up too much space.
Never slow down, never grow old!
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07-18-2019, 06:07 PM
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#112
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177
Jim Rogers and I share the same bearish views
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How long have you two shared these views?
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07-18-2019, 06:19 PM
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#113
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Jim Rogers has a net worth of $300M. How much net worth do you have?
People has missed the point that the USA debt was $11 trillion 10 years ago and it is now $22 trillion and still climbing. The USA is getting close to Greece, Italy and Japan. IMO, this is not sustainable.
I just reallocate my portfolio to be more conservative because I made enough money during the bull market in the last 10 years. My portfolio is now about 25% stock, 25% short term bonds and 50% CDs and cash and my annual retirement income is 6 figures plus. I want to keep this way. This is called capital preservation. If the USA debt was decreasing or even stable then my portfolio would be much more aggressive.
I already have tickets to go to Waikiki for an entire month and I want to have a good time surfing on a long board at age 68 without having too much of my money in the stock market. I will also be shopping for a vacation condo in Waikiki so I can covert some of my wealth into real estate. If the market do crash during my retirement, then I will be the one who has the last laugh.
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07-18-2019, 06:44 PM
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#114
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Upstate
Posts: 2,950
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177
Jim Rogers has a net worth of $300M. How much net worth do you have?
People has missed the point that the USA debt was $11 trillion 10 years ago and it is now $22 trillion and still climbing. The USA is getting close to Greece, Italy and Japan. IMO, this is not sustainable.
I just reallocate my portfolio to be more conservative because I made enough money during the bull market in the last 10 years. My portfolio is now about 25% stock, 25% short term bonds and 50% CDs and cash and my annual retirement income is 6 figures plus. I want to keep this way. This is called capital preservation. If the USA debt was decreasing or even stable then my portfolio would be much more aggressive.
I already have tickets to go to Waikiki for an entire month and I want to have a good time surfing on a long board at age 68 without having too much of my money in the stock market. I will also be shopping for a vacation condo in Waikiki so I can covert some of my wealth into real estate. If the market do crash during my retirement, then I will be the one who has the last laugh.
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You are missing the point. Someday, these predictions will be correct. ALL BULL MARKETS END BADLY. My point is that it is very difficult to predict when that will happen. As you can see from the posts regarding Jim Rogers track record, IT ISN'T EASY TO PREDICT THE WHEN.
I happen to like Jim Rogers, but he has been wrong. He even moved to Singapore with his children so that they would learn Chinese because he believed in the ascension of SE Asia over the United States, and I can understand where he is coming from.
I am not foolish enough to think that we can't have another 2008/9 or much worse (e.g. a repeat of the great depression). I can assure you that I am 'hedged' in ways you haven't even thought about in terms of bad scenarios and to be (at least a little bit) prepared for them.
When the US Debt hit $10 Trillion, there were plenty of people saying the end was near, that the debt wasn't sustainable. Here we are 2X and yet the world hasn't come to an end. So again, what makes $22 Trillion THE magic number that makes THIS the time?
I'm glad you have the money to spend a month in Hawaii, good for you. I'd rather spend my time on ski's than on a surf board (mostly because I can't surf )
Something to think about : When the SHTF in terms of too much debt, how will the US Treasury and Federal reserve handle it? Hint: The US Debt is denominated in US Currency, so they can pay it off. This is unlike Greece or most other countries whose debt is denominated in US $ or some other non-home currency. This is THE major difference.
If/When the US debt becomes unsustainable, the debt would be paid causing a massive increase in the money supply and likely a large dose of inflation.
Given that, how will your CD's, short term bonds, and cash look? Answer: Your buying power (in terms of goods and services and especially goods from other countries) will be negatively impacted.
What I am saying here is that hiding in fixed/cash/CD's will likely not be a safe place if the massive US debt goes critical.
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07-18-2019, 07:11 PM
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#115
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ex-Cali
Posts: 1,245
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I usually ask my dog to throw darts at a dart board. That has always guided when to buy and sell stocks for me.
__________________
______________________
The plan was September 1, 2022 and I am 95% there. Still working a few hours a week at the real job.
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07-18-2019, 07:15 PM
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#116
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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I look where the dog takes a pee.
If she heads to the left, I know stocks are good. If off to the right I should be more conservative and buy bonds.
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07-18-2019, 07:25 PM
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#117
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 630
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vchan2177
Jim Rogers has a net worth of $300M. How much net worth do you have?
People has missed the point that the USA debt was $11 trillion 10 years ago and it is now $22 trillion and still climbing. The USA is getting close to Greece, Italy and Japan. IMO, this is not sustainable.
I just reallocate my portfolio to be more conservative because I made enough money during the bull market in the last 10 years. My portfolio is now about 25% stock, 25% short term bonds and 50% CDs and cash and my annual retirement income is 6 figures plus. I want to keep this way. This is called capital preservation. If the USA debt was decreasing or even stable then my portfolio would be much more aggressive.
I already have tickets to go to Waikiki for an entire month and I want to have a good time surfing on a long board at age 68 without having too much of my money in the stock market. I will also be shopping for a vacation condo in Waikiki so I can covert some of my wealth into real estate. If the market do crash during my retirement, then I will be the one who has the last laugh.
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Unless you're planning an early demise, it's when, not if, the market will crash. The market will crash. It always does. A perpetual bear market is unsustainable. People get greedy, forget the last big bear market and overbuy. Eventually there is a tipping point. The market crashes due to people being too foolish to just stay the course. Then people realize the stock market can be bought at a major discount, and the next bear market starts again. Some people sell high and buy low. Some sell low and buy back in when the market gets higher. The wisest keep their money invested and buy as they can during a downturn, realizing that only luck times a market.
Remember there are always the fools that sell at the bottom of a market crash. I'd much rather be the fool that buys at the top then sells at the bottom.
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07-18-2019, 07:28 PM
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#118
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 367
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbieB
I look where the dog takes a pee.
If she heads to the left, I know stocks are good. If off to the right I should be more conservative and buy bonds.
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I’m about to take one of our dogs out for a final bathroom break before bedtime. I’ll keep an eye out for which way he goes.
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07-18-2019, 07:30 PM
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#119
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: DC area
Posts: 2,493
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Just a small pile-on for Jim Rogers. Googling "Jim Rodgers Bear Market" results in 13 MILLION hits...
Anyway, I know a bear market is coming and as an Early Retiree I am nowhere near 100% equities. Changing your asset allocation based on your stage of life is appropriate. But I have no idea when a bear market is coming and don't pretend to, so I count on my AA to handle it.
vchan2177, your 25/75 AA is actually in on the very conservative end of the "normal" range for a 68-year old. But early retirees are at huge risk of inflation over the long term (which many predict is the result of the debt problem) and need equities for growth.
__________________
FI and Semi-ER March 24, 2017
Consulting to stay engaged
"All models are wrong, some are useful." - George Box
“There is always a well-known solution to every human problem: neat, plausible, and wrong.” - H.L. Mencken
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07-18-2019, 07:53 PM
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#120
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 966
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
You are missing the point. Someday, these predictions will be correct. ALL BULL MARKETS END BADLY. My point is that it is very difficult to predict when that will happen. As you can see from the posts regarding Jim Rogers track record, IT ISN'T EASY TO PREDICT THE WHEN.
I happen to like Jim Rogers, but he has been wrong. He even moved to Singapore with his children so that they would learn Chinese because he believed in the ascension of SE Asia over the United States, and I can understand where he is coming from.
I am not foolish enough to think that we can't have another 2008/9 or much worse (e.g. a repeat of the great depression). I can assure you that I am 'hedged' in ways you haven't even thought about in terms of bad scenarios and to be (at least a little bit) prepared for them.
When the US Debt hit $10 Trillion, there were plenty of people saying the end was near, that the debt wasn't sustainable. Here we are 2X and yet the world hasn't come to an end. So again, what makes $22 Trillion THE magic number that makes THIS the time?
I'm glad you have the money to spend a month in Hawaii, good for you. I'd rather spend my time on ski's than on a surf board (mostly because I can't surf )
Something to think about : When the SHTF in terms of too much debt, how will the US Treasury and Federal reserve handle it? Hint: The US Debt is denominated in US Currency, so they can pay it off. This is unlike Greece or most other countries whose debt is denominated in US $ or some other non-home currency. This is THE major difference.
If/When the US debt becomes unsustainable, the debt would be paid causing a massive increase in the money supply and likely a large dose of inflation.
Given that, how will your CD's, short term bonds, and cash look? Answer: Your buying power (in terms of goods and services and especially goods from other countries) will be negatively impacted.
What I am saying here is that hiding in fixed/cash/CD's will likely not be a safe place if the massive US debt goes critical.
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You missed the point that I will be converting some of my wealth into Real Estate using my cash so I am ahead of you. I have been a landlord before and i know how to manage rental properties. I can rent to Hawaiians or rich Americans who will likely be unaffected by the downturn because rich Americans are very smart people who know how to protect their assets.
I do agree that Jim has a bad track record so perhaps that was a bad example. What is relevant is how the USA handle the debt. Do you really think the Republicans and the Democrats will agree on addressing this issue? Most likely outcome: Nothing is going to happen.
I have been in the stock market long enough to know that foreign investors buy US stocks because it is currently a good investment. However, once they lose confidence in the USA, they will pull out in a heartbeat. Foreign investors do not use a buy and hold strategy. If they believe another country's stock such as China, Germany or Brazil will have better return than the USA, you will see a drop in the US stock market.
Does the USA have the ability to pay off the debt simply using US dollars? I disagree with your point because if they do that...how would foreign investors will think about their US treasury bonds which are now balancing the books and funding the US debt? Hint: They probably will sell all of it and the foreign exchange rate will be terrible for the USA.
You also appear to believe the US dollar is "invincible" but the US dollar is only as good as the perceived value behind it. The US dollar was #1 for the last 40 years because the USA has the #1 economy in the last 40 years. However, this may be changing. This is why there are some countries are thinking about using the Chinese Yuan as the new world currency because the USA is heavily in debt.
All of this is my opinion. This is why my portfolio is now 25% stock, 25% short term bonds and the rest in cash and/or real estate...if I can find a good fee simple property to buy in Hawaii next month. At my age, I need to enjoy my life. There is less joy in a large number in my portfolio and more joy having property in Hawaii that I can either rent or live in.
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