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Gundlach expects low retest - shorts S&P @ 2,863
Old 04-28-2020, 02:11 PM   #1
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Gundlach expects low retest - shorts S&P @ 2,863

Anyone else see that Jeff Gundlach expects we are "going to re-test the lows" and has shorted the S&P (4/27/20) at 2,863?

I don't listen / pay attention to many Wall Street prognosticators..but this is Jeff freaking Gundlach! Founder of DoubleLine Capital. I own some of his funds. The guy knows his stuff..

I'll admit to being a bit surprised that we've bounced off the lows so quickly. Many people say we have to "re-test the lows" but I haven't been able to find anything that convinces me that's true. But when Jeff Gundlach says it..it carries a lot more weight than someone like Cramer spouting off..

Hmmmm...
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Old 04-28-2020, 02:19 PM   #2
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I've followed him since he was at TCW and was thrown out. As much as I respect him, he does make his share of mistakes.

6/13/2018:
Gundlach Sees 6% Yield in 3 Years. Anyone Else?
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:35 PM   #3
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I've followed him since he was at TCW and was thrown out. As much as I respect him, he does make his share of mistakes.

6/13/2018:
Gundlach Sees 6% Yield in 3 Years. Anyone Else?
To be fair though, the article is dated June 2018 so he has 14 months to go and I'm sure that he didn't have a global pandemic in mind when he made that prediction and the Fed going wild and crazy with the money supply.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:37 PM   #4
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To be fair though, the article is dated June 2018 so he has 14 months to go and I'm sure that he didn't have a global pandemic in mind when he made that prediction and the Fed going wild and crazy with the money supply.
Rates went lower from the time he made the call. Even without the pandemic, there was absolutely no way rates were going to get to 6%.
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Old 04-28-2020, 03:45 PM   #5
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I tend to agree with you that 6% was unlikely but I bought some 3.5% CDs in April 2019... but we'll never know.
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:03 PM   #6
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Can't be worst then Bill Ackman with his gloom and doom view on live TV mid March but then made 2.5 billions couple days later.
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:29 PM   #7
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Rates went lower from the time he made the call. Even without the pandemic, there was absolutely no way rates were going to get to 6%.
Yeah, I think we both went hard and heavy into the longer term CD's in late 2018. 3-4% was a gamble but it looks brilliant now. At the time many thought that rates would keep rising and why would anyone lock up funds for 7-10 years. Who knows what the future holds?
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Old 04-28-2020, 05:04 PM   #8
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Yeah, I think we both went hard and heavy into the longer term CD's in late 2018. 3-4% was a gamble but it looks brilliant now. At the time many thought that rates would keep rising and why would anyone lock up funds for 7-10 years. Who knows what the future holds?
I don't think that's a given, but we won't know for another year or so.
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Old 04-28-2020, 06:04 PM   #9
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A few weeks ago most analysts were saying we're going to retest the bottom, now most analysts are saying a retest is not coming. It's a lot like the news where if you look long enough, you'll find something that agrees with your point of view no matter how fringe it is.
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Old 04-28-2020, 07:15 PM   #10
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Anyone can make a prediction, how many get held to being made accountable for being wrong? No one follows up so no one ever calls their bluff. But get it right once and they act like they have the inside track on everything.
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:10 PM   #11
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Anyone can make a prediction, how many get held to being made accountable for being wrong? No one follows up so no one ever calls their bluff. But get it right once and they act like they have the inside track on everything.
Effectively zero.
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:01 PM   #12
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I respect Gundlach and I do expect a retest.
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:21 PM   #13
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Sure hope so - there are deals I missed!
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:12 AM   #14
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I don't think that's a given, but we won't know for another year or so.
Yep. And meanwhile I'll take the income
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:40 AM   #15
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There was never a retest of the low in March, 2009.
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:19 AM   #16
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When wall street analysts, even very successful ones, make predictions about the short term direction of the market, the safe thing to do is not to believe them.

I know this isn't a popular statement when someone is held in such high regard. His firm will rake in their large fees regardless of where the market ends up. For all we know he may have a small short position in his funds that he is telegraphing to the world and a large long position in his personal account. One never knows.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:03 AM   #17
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The various charts posted by Lsbcal show data for various recessions, and can be used to understand re-testing the lows.
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...ne-102582.html
https://www.early-retirement.org/for...-a-103378.html

On the way to the absolute bottom, there are other low points from which a recovery seems in place. Of course you eventually get to THE low, and don't go there again.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:46 AM   #18
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Yep. And meanwhile I'll take the income
I hope it works for you. I'm still with VBTLX.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:48 AM   #19
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There was never a retest of the low in March, 2009.
True, but that was the 3rd large drop in that Bear Market cycle, with 2 prior upswings.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:49 AM   #20
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There was never a retest of the low in March, 2009.
Or the December 2018 low.
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