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Old 02-16-2020, 02:01 PM   #101
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According to this WSJ article, the index was down 20% using intraday levels in Oct 2011:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/calling...ket-1534940689

Calling Bull on the Longest Bull Market
"The S&P 500 itself fell 19.4% from its postcrisis closing high to the closing low of October 2011, although even here we can split hairs. Use intraday highs and lows and the index was down 21.6%, for a new bear market. Certainly to many investors it felt like a renewed panic, and nothing like a bull market.

Whether today marks a record is open to doubt either way. Based on closing prices, there was no bear market from 1987 until 2000 in the S&P 500, making that by far the longest bull run. Based on intraday prices, there were bear markets in 1990 and 1998, but that run was still longer than the run since 2011."
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:16 PM   #102
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And this bull/bear stuff is important because ... ?
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:23 PM   #103
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mystery to me!
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Old 02-16-2020, 03:59 PM   #104
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Sorry mentioned it as a side note in post #99 about not believing all this 11 year bull run hoopla (i.e. in general people believing just because of this supposedly longevity meaning time to go down)...maybe should have started a new thread. New to posting here so I'll ask for forgiveness.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:12 PM   #105
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Sorry mentioned it as a side note in post #99 about not believing all this 11 year bull run hoopla (i.e. in general people believing just because of this supposedly longevity meaning time to go down)...maybe should have started a new thread. New to posting here so I'll ask for forgiveness.
No criticism of anyone's post intended. It just struck me that people seemed to be getting pretty intense about this.

The bull sculpture on Wall Street is quite attractive, but all of the bull/bear discussion makes no sense to me. Maybe it is a mild attempt at market timing. Or maybe the pundits and newsletter sellers get people whipped up about it so they can maintain an audience.

Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market decides to do. No one has ever figured out how to predict this and no one ever will. Bull, bear, CAPE, ouija, P/E, astrology, ... Pretty much all have shown the same predictive value.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:16 PM   #106
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Well let's look at it this way.
If the drop in Dec 2018 was let's say 21% and lasted 3 months, would we be speaking of the start of a new bull market and thus the continued bear market fearfulness would dissipate somewhat and folks would feel more comfortable with the current higher stock valuations.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:24 PM   #107
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No criticism of anyone's post intended. It just struck me that people seemed to be getting pretty intense about this.

The bull sculpture on Wall Street is quite attractive, but all of the bull/bear discussion makes no sense to me. Maybe it is a mild attempt at market timing. Or maybe the pundits and newsletter sellers get people whipped up about it so they can maintain an audience.

Mr. Market will do what Mr. Market decides to do. No one has ever figured out how to predict this and no one ever will. Bull, bear, CAPE, ouija, P/E, astrology, ... Pretty much all have shown the same predictive value.
+1

Agreed. Btw, I prefer to keep much simpler...coin flip.
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Old 02-17-2020, 02:46 PM   #108
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Since Sept 1,2018 the S&P is up 16%. So in 17 1/2 months the S&P has gained 16%.
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Old 02-17-2020, 04:53 PM   #109
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Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/appl...-in-china.html
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:14 PM   #110
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Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/appl...-in-china.html
Dow futures down about 100 points (as of the time I'm typing this). S&P 500 futures down 13 points. Yawn.

As someone who's been selling the recent rallies, I keep getting whacked in terms of how much the market is ignoring the virus impacts and other deteriorating indicators. Perhaps it is as simple as "don't fight the fed" where in this case it is every central bank in the world.
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:14 PM   #111
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It is indeed hard to tell what is a bubble or not.

It is not a bubble if the masses keep buying and bidding the market up, P/E ratio be damned.

When they suddenly all head for the exit door, trampling each other on the way out, then it is a bubble.

The masses always rule. You cannot argue with the majority.
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:14 PM   #112
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Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/appl...-in-china.html
I doubt it. This market only goes up. I imagine we don't turn the corner until DOW 30,000 maybe even 40,000.
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:19 PM   #113
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I doubt it. This market only goes up. I imagine we don't turn the corner until DOW 30,000 maybe even 40,000.
=/= Whee(?)
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:24 PM   #114
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Originally Posted by leftyfrizzell1963 View Post
Apple just posted an announcement that earnings will be lower due to the CV. Could this be the start of a major downturn tomorrow morning?

Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays, weak demand in China because of coronavirus - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/appl...-in-china.html
Yeah the new AirPods Pro are not available until March 17! Seems like that could extend.....
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:32 PM   #115
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In a year or two all this virus stuff will have been forgotten. In Apple's case, most of the "lost" sales have simply been shifted forward a month or more. All of this is simply noise that entertains the traders as they play their zero-sum games.
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Old 02-17-2020, 05:49 PM   #116
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Stock futures drop after Apple's warning came out.

I find it strange that the market did not anticipate that Apple would have immediate financial hiccup in the next quarter.

Honhai/Foxconn has had trouble restarting the two factories where it builds Apple products. I knew about this, and I am not even an Apple shareholder.
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:24 PM   #117
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Stock futures drop after Apple's warning came out.

I find it strange that the market did not anticipate that Apple would have immediate financial hiccup in the next quarter.

Honhai/Foxconn has had trouble restarting the two factories where it builds Apple products. I knew about this, and I am not even an Apple shareholder.
I am a shareholder. Foxconn also had problems with its screen manufacturers not keeping up with demand, which to me was a bigger worry...but they still charged ahead with earnings...eventually.
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:27 PM   #118
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It's not a bubble until it pops!
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:59 PM   #119
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And it does not pop until people start selling.

Don't anyone sell now!
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Old 02-17-2020, 08:13 PM   #120
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Regarding HonHai/Foxconn factories that make iPhones, it was reported last week that one factory restarted with 16,000 employees, and the 2nd one with 20,000 employees.

What's impressive was that the above numbers are only 10% of the normal work force. These factories have 200,000 employees each!

And it was said further that these employees were mostly people who chose to spend the New Year holiday in the company dormitories instead of going home as is the custom.

And so, the re-integration of returning employees is tricky if you care to not infect the few healthy employees you currently have.
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