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Hypothetical Portfolio
Old 08-05-2020, 06:48 AM   #1
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Hypothetical Portfolio

How bad, how ugly?

50/50 AA with a 3% draw down.
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:08 AM   #2
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:38 AM   #3
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Old 08-05-2020, 07:39 AM   #4
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+1 not sure what it all means
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:14 AM   #5
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+1 not sure what it all means
It doesn't mean anything. Drawdowns don't matter. Total return is what matters.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:42 AM   #6
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+1 not sure what it all means
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Not readable.
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Can't even tell what the question is all about or response solicited.
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It doesn't mean anything. Drawdowns don't matter. Total return is what matters.

Scenario is 1.7mil 200k cash and 50/50 AA FBNDX/VTSMX 500k in each back tested with a 3% draw down annually.

In the chart shown I am wondering if this a typical scenario.

Thanks,

oh and sorry for confusion.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:46 AM   #7
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...I am wondering if this a typical scenario. ...
Yes. It is typical for the market to go down sometimes.

Edit: It is also typical for the market to go up sometimes.
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:45 AM   #8
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I assume my 75/25 would look worse. I'm fine with that.

But this is such a short time, during a mostly bull market, that I don't think any general conclusions should be drawn.
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Old 08-05-2020, 11:00 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by augam View Post
Scenario is 1.7mil 200k cash and 50/50 AA FBNDX/VTSMX 500k in each back tested with a 3% draw down annually.

In the chart shown I am wondering if this a typical scenario.

Thanks,

oh and sorry for confusion.
I still don't understand the portfolio yet: If you have 500k each in FBNDX & VTSMX and 200k in cash, and 1.7M total, where is the other 500k?
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Old 08-05-2020, 01:23 PM   #10
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I still don't understand the portfolio yet: If you have 500k each in FBNDX & VTSMX and 200k in cash, and 1.7M total, where is the other 500k?
My bad. I placed some side bets in various equities.
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Old 08-05-2020, 02:36 PM   #11
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Scenario is 1.7mil 200k cash and 50/50 AA FBNDX/VTSMX 500k in each back tested with a 3% draw down annually.
This is an odd mix of 2 funds because

(a) they are from two different firms

(b) VTSMX is no longer available for purchase I think since it has been replaced with VTSAX

(c) FBNDX is an actively-managed bond fund though many people confuse it with a total US bond index fund.

So one could have picked just about any 50/50 US stock / US bond mix I suppose and gotten similar results.
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Old 08-05-2020, 03:25 PM   #12
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This is an odd mix of 2 funds because

(a) they are from two different firms

(b) VTSMX is no longer available for purchase I think since it has been replaced with VTSAX

(c) FBNDX is an actively-managed bond fund though many people confuse it with a total US bond index fund.

So one could have picked just about any 50/50 US stock / US bond mix I suppose and gotten similar results.
I needed to back test an equity holding that had some history. Hence hypothetical.
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Old 08-05-2020, 08:33 PM   #13
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OP, are you familiar with firecalc? (http://www.firecalc.com - notice there are tabs across the top for multiple sections of input)
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Old 08-05-2020, 09:18 PM   #14
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If you’re interested in worst case scenarios have a look at a more detailed review:

http://https://portfoliocharts.com/2...r-investments/
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Old 08-05-2020, 10:09 PM   #15
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If you’re interested in worst case scenarios have a look at a more detailed review:

http://https://portfoliocharts.com/2...r-investments/
Somehow, a colon was missing from your URL. I think this is the link you meant:
https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/08/...r-investments/
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