I admit, I'm a bit shellshocked

[joesxm3]

I sort of did that today with my back of napkin sheet.

I had included a 15% drop on day one and as of today my portfolio value is 2% lower than in August 2016 when I retired. So not as large of a hit (yet) and five fewer years.

The wild card here, of course, is what will the inflation rate be like during the next 30 years.

 

[npage]

Just relax. Why not run Firecalc based on your current portfolio, as if you are just retiring now. You will probably receive good results and calm down some.

I've done this to get comfortable as well. My situation is a a bit unique. I pulled plug 1 year ago (great timing). Portfolio went up till it didn't last year like everyone. Partner will work for 4 to 5 years more, she is younger, loves work and we live off her salary and benefits right now no problem.

I assumed she lost her job after the day after I quit and we were fine at 4% firecalc. We own house and could actually reduce expenses I would say by 20% if we "had" too. Maybe more but who wants to! Now looking at portfolio we'd be tighter but given we won't touch portfolio for 5 years and will actually contribute a bit more.

Well, when would you all actually consider the retire date then? The day she actually pulls the plug and we are truly living off portfolio? Technically I know that to be the correct answer, but with these market gyrations I run different doomsday stuff in my head all the time. Stress of not having a paycheck still follows me one year later which rapid inflation has not helped like joesxm notes.

 

[Dtail]

I've done this to get comfortable as well. My situation is a a bit unique. I pulled plug 1 year ago (great timing). Portfolio went up till it didn't last year like everyone. Partner will work for 4 to 5 years more, she is younger, loves work and we live off her salary and benefits right now no problem.

I assumed she lost her job after the day after I quit and we were fine at 4% firecalc. We own house and could actually reduce expenses I would say by 20% if we "had" too. Maybe more but who wants to! Now looking at portfolio we'd be tighter but given we won't touch portfolio for 5 years and will actually contribute a bit more.

Well, when would you all actually consider the retire date then? The day she actually pulls the plug and we are truly living off portfolio? Technically I know that to be the correct answer, but with these market gyrations I run different doomsday stuff in my head all the time. Stress of not having a paycheck still follows me one year later which rapid inflation has not helped like joesxm notes.

Since there is no touching of the portfolio, plus she is still working, I would put the retirement date in Firecalc as the date she retires.

 

[npage]

Since there is no touching of the portfolio, plus she is still working, I would put the retirement date in Firecalc as the date she retires.

I use a couple online firecalcs and at this point having looked at it for 30 years I tend to think back of napkin is as good as most of them unless you get into very specific year by year cash flow modeling. I never assumed it had to work to .x% accuracy, there is cushion.

I had forgot actually the fircalc tabs at the top allowed that date. I just put in the beat up portfolio of today values and retirement date of 2026 and also added in SS. 100% success.

 

[jollystomper]

Just relax. Why not run Firecalc based on your current portfolio, as if you are just retiring now. You will probably receive good results and calm down some.

+1

I do this during downturns just for grins. It still shows that I could spend more now on a yearly basis than what it showed 4 years ago when I retired. We are straining to spend 70% of that amount.

 

[Jeffman52]

Back in 2007. 2008, 2009 when the market crashed (at one point I think it had lost about 50% of its value) the people that lost the most were those that over-reacted and sold. When the market recovered as it always does, most of them missed the timing of the recovery and locked in crazy losses. I know at least one person that (GASP) went back to w*** for a few years because they locked in their losses thinking it was the next Great Depression.

 

[aja8888]

Back in 2007. 2008, 2009 when the market crashed (at one point I think it had lost about 50% of its value) the people that lost the most were those that over-reacted and sold. When the market recovered as it always does, most of them missed the timing of the recovery and locked in crazy losses. I know at least one person that (GASP) went back to w*** for a few years because they locked in their losses thinking it was the next Great Depression.

Yeah, it's best to wait it out and hope we don't end up like Japan's stock market which has taken 30 years to recover. If the recovery is only 10 years or so here, it's not too bad.

 

[NW-Bound]

Yeah, it's best to wait it out and hope we don't end up like Japan's stock market which has taken 30 years to recover. If the recovery is only 10 years or so here, it's not too bad.

OMG, 10 years?

Well, think of all the time a guy has to do Roth conversion with his low-priced stocks. If he's going to be around that long that is.

 

[aja8888]

OMG, 10 years?

Well, think of all the time a guy has to do Roth conversion with his low-priced stocks. If he's going to be around that long that is.

I'm not going to be around that long (10 years) as I am pushing the envelope right now. Looking back within my family, the only person that made it past 80 was my Mom and she left at 82. In ten years, I will be 88.

 

[Magus]

Why did you retire if you were worried about being down 11% over the last 5 months? Stocks in general are already way down more than that - median stock is down nearly 50% from its 52 wk high. If you are only down 11% you are way outperforming. Markets drop 20-30% with some regularity.

 

[bobbyr]

stop watching the financial news. I wouldn't know if I'm down 5%, 11%, or much more. I'm not looking. Been there, done that. All it makes you do is stupid stuff.

I don't know what Crunked means, but google says it's probably not how you meant it.

Unless you retired with substantially less than you should have had, stop looking.

++

 

[RobbieB]

I'm down more on bonds than stocks, not selling either.

Well except my annual January for the year's expenses sale of equities -

 

[Dash man]

When I get concerned over market drops, I remember that when I retired in 2013, we only had half of what we do now, and that’s just in stocks. Doesn’t count cash or real estate.

 

[USGrant1962]

Why did you retire if you were worried about being down 11% over the last 5 months? Stocks in general are already way down more than that - median stock is down nearly 50% from its 52 wk high. If you are only down 11% you are way outperforming. Markets drop 20-30% with some regularity.

I've read from one long-term analyst that the typical intra-year market dip is 14%. That is in a typical year, year after year. All this fretting seems over-wrought.

Now the mess in bonds is another matter...they are way worse than any normal drop and dropping at the same time as a stock correction.

 

[npage]

If I had been retired for 5 or 10 years much easier to watch. I think some of the veterans here forget that when new people merely voice a little angst. Oh well.

Also as USgrant said the decline in everything at once. I too was shocked how fast bonds dropped on small rate increase that was quite telegraphed. Maybe that's our new normal.

 

[Franklin]

Ive lost 12.9% on an 8 digit portfolio. (to be honest It was 8 digit....but Ive fallen back to earth). It has been hard but Ive stayed invested and actually been buying today. It feels like a bottom is just around the corner so don't worry unless you can't come up with cash. It seems that ain't your problem so take the walk your fellow members have advised. This too will pass.

 

[NW-Bound]

I remember Hesperus as a poster with an 8-digit stash. He has not posted recently.

 

[youbet]

We are down 15.5% from our overall high. Worth noting that even though that is true, VTI is still $4 higher than it's 52 week low. Longer view is good.

Hmmmm....... Pretty similar results here. On an approximately 60/40 AA, I'm down 14.8% from my high in Nov, 2021 and down 14.2% YTD. Haven't sold anything and have purchased modest amounts of SPY and treasuries.

 

[youbet]

Now the mess in bonds is another matter...they are way worse than any normal drop and dropping at the same time as a stock correction.

Yeah, isn't this fun?

 

[Franklin]

This is my investable assets (not NW) so its all invested in this mess.Caution....All of my moves over the past 30 days have been wrong. But about 2 months ago I moved $1.7MM to cash (just in case). I have no idea how this markets moves but to me it feels like a bottom. Therefore Ive started to buy back. This group is as smart financially as most so follow their advice.

 

[jollystomper]

If I had been retired for 5 or 10 years much easier to watch. I think some of the veterans here forget that when new people merely voice a little angst. Oh well.

I do not think the veterans have forgotten... I more think what is being conveyed is (in my best Aaron Rodgers press conference voice) "relax..." because they have seen bad downturns, and have lived to tell the tale.

 

[npage]

I do not think the veterans have forgotten... I more think what is being conveyed is (in my best Aaron Rodgers press conference voice) "relax..." because they have seem bad downturns, and have lived to tell the tale.

Good point and a much better glass is half full than my pessimistic self Tone is very much lost in internet land. When someone says "How can a 11% market decline have you worried, get over it."

Or something like that. It can come off as negative or preachy but you are right it can also be, I've seen this before and you will be fine.

 

[kgtest]

Bro, I am down 27% on a 100% equities portfolio. I own a rental, and have been pushing money in every week. This too shall pass.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

I've read from one long-term analyst that the typical intra-year market dip is 14%. That is in a typical year, year after year. All this fretting seems over-wrought.

Now the mess in bonds is another matter...they are way worse than any normal drop and dropping at the same time as a stock correction.

The SPY drop has been masking just how bad the drop has been. While the SP 500 weighted index is down 16.8%, the average SP 500 stock is down 24%, and two-thirds of the SP 500 stocks have fallen more than 16.8%.

The Nasdaq is down 26%. Looking at FAANGM, Amazon, Meta (Google), and Netflix are all down more than 40%. (And Netflix, ugh). As someone who's largest holding is Apple and also owns a decent slug of Microsoft, I am concerned that the generals are being shot one by one.

I'm too lazy, but looking at other indexes (e.g. Russell 2000) shows similar carnage. This drawdown started 1Q 21, it is only recently where it has spread to more of the bread and butter stocks. As I alluded to above, first the front line soldiers are shot, but eventually the war comes to the generals who are no longer safe investments. That is where we are now.

 

[EastWest Gal]

I have about a year’s expenses in cash. 60:40 asset allocation. Almost all index funds. I have some oil stocks, as that was my dad’s occupation and he was almost all in the one stock. That stock is $35 over its previous all time high, and 2.5x the value when I inherited in 2009. If we need more cash we’ll sell some of the oil stocks.

Expenses are down despite inflation: not much travel and we’re done with home renovation for now.