I have sinned. I sold

[target2019]

My interpretation now is that MichaelKnight is looking for an asset allocation that works for him.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 Between November and December of last year, I sold 90% of my equities, mostly preferred issues, some tech stocks, and took good profits. All were in an IRA. In January 2022, I sold my only bond fund. As interest rates rose through the year, I took the cash and started buying treasuries, CD's, Corporate bonds and agency notes in the IRA. In my brokerage account, I bought several municipal bonds, an MLP, and another energy stock. I am 10% equities across the board and ahead about 2% YTD in 2022. I am almost 79 and moving into fixed income in a big way. I still own several energy equities (XOM, WMB, etc). So I guess I should be criticized for selling like MichaelKnight above.

No, you're just exceptional.... either lucky, good, or something else....

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by target2019 My interpretation now is that MichaelKnight is looking for an asset allocation that works for him.

Based on post #56, it seems to me that @MK is now an active investor. Not my cup of tea, but YMMV.

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight Many used to shout platitudes '$15 an hour!!" "businesses exploiting workers!" - - well guess what, now workers are telling businesses to stick their $15 somewhere special...point being, cost of labor will stay somewhat high and with any luck - labor in China, India, Mexico are gonna figure it out also.

A few years ago there was a big movement in my area to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Several cities passed laws to do phase in the $15 wage over a few years. Reality hit. Long before the $15 hourly wage became official law many fast food joints were advertising starting wages over $15. I do live in a high cost of living area.

On a recent out of state trip I noticed that even in lower cost of living areas the starting wage is $14 an hour. I also noticed more of those kiosks where the customer enters her own order. One Big Name fast food joint had a sign on the register recommending people use the kiosks for faster service. The register human being was reserved for people with questions and special orders (Can i get my burger without mustard and with more onions?)

[MichealKnight]

Quote:

Originally Posted by target2019 My interpretation now is that MichaelKnight is looking for an asset allocation that works for him.

Could be. I've merely lowered stock allocation - and wish to get back to it - when I feel they are a bit cheaper, OR if the downturn never happens.

I just felt that - I'd rather lose less money. I like keeping it if I could.

Frankly I regret not having the guts to sell 100% of it. I'm downright angry with myself.

Only silver lining is if I get to buy it all back cheaper.

[MichealKnight]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut A few years ago there was a big movement in my area to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Several cities passed laws to do phase in the $15 wage over a few years. Reality hit. Long before the $15 hourly wage became official law many fast food joints were advertising starting wages over $15. I do live in a high cost of living area. On a recent out of state trip I noticed that even in lower cost of living areas the starting wage is $14 an hour. I also noticed more of those kiosks where the customer enters her own order. One Big Name fast food joint had a sign on the register recommending people use the kiosks for faster service. The register human being was reserved for people with questions and special orders (Can i get my burger without mustard and with more onions?)

I wonder - is there a HUGE segment of America that doesn't live in Club 401K-WhileFoods Ville? People who didn't or couldn't get more educated? People who didn't have the upbringing to even fill out a job application or speak in sentences?

Now that the kiosks, and "digital" and "automation" will go more mainstream - did these people just lose their sole ticket into the workforce to learn basic habits?

If said people get even poorer..... what will they do?

*Be happy. Volunteer to clean the oceans and pick up litter.
*Build Habitat for Humanity houses.
*Be resentful, angry, and in some cases - violent.

"$15 an hour!"

Some bumper stickers - result in unintended consequences

[MichealKnight]

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondCor521 Based on post #56, it seems to me that @MK is now an active investor. Not my cup of tea, but YMMV.

If, keeping 70% of one stocks in place - while having a pretty good idea that they are going to depreciate again is being an active investor, ok, yes that is what I am.

I dunno. I could buy butter today. I have plenty in my fridge.

But usually around thanksgiving - butter goes from $4.50 to $2.99...I wait to buy at that time, and buy enough to last till summer.

Does that mean I'm timing the market? Does it mean that people posting about "when will car prices go down" are market timing? Why don't people say "just go buy a car, pay full MSRP, if prices go down in 6 months, just dollar cost average and buy a new one. "

To me it's just - - trying to keep more money.

Again, kept 70%, only sold 30%.

[VanWinkle]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight If, keeping 70% of one stocks in place - while having a pretty good idea that they are going to depreciate again is being an active investor, ok, yes that is what I am. I dunno. I could buy butter today. I have plenty in my fridge. But usually around thanksgiving - butter goes from $4.50 to $2.99...I wait to buy at that time, and buy enough to last till summer. Does that mean I'm timing the market? Does it mean that people posting about "when will car prices go down" are market timing? Why don't people say "just go buy a car, pay full MSRP, if prices go down in 6 months, just dollar cost average and buy a new one. " To me it's just - - trying to keep more money. Again, kept 70%, only sold 30%.

You are timing the market. It works, rarely, but if it works for you I think it is great. Good luck and let us know when you get back in. When purchasing a stock/fund that over time appreciates in value, it is not comparable to a car or butter.

Best to you,

VW

[SecondCor521]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight If, keeping 70% of one stocks in place - while having a pretty good idea that they are going to depreciate again is being an active investor, ok, yes that is what I am. [snip] Again, kept 70%, only sold 30%.

I was not referring to your OP where you sold 30% of your stocks.

I was referring to post #56, where you, in the approximately 10 days after that, purchased seven different individual securities (not sure exactly what .SDY is - maybe an S&P500 put option?).

It seems clear to me that you're taking active measures to try to preserve and grow your money. Cool, I wish you good luck.

I'm not trying to be critical with my description. I do think it's accurate based on what you've written on this thread.

[DJRR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight I"m down , for real. I was never into paper assets and stocks and 401K stuff until I early retired. So I never rode the elevator up that much. The stock account - down $300k.

This. When you have done it for 40 -50 years you may have a different opinion. I used to think the same way, but learned that a fund that did the opposite of what I did would perform much better You will see that the moves come much faster than your brain is willing to commit your actual money to. This market is just noise. It has been a long time since a truly volatile market where is was moving a few % a day. Once this one decides where it is going it will be a rocket down or up and the human brain is not really able to pull the trigger. If you are using other peoples money then it is easy to gamble on the moves.

I am convinced that it is impossible to daily compete in liquid stocks like Google that are being traded by computers and huge funds betting other peoples money. These same factors make it possible for smaller people to compete in illiquid markets or places where they have a knowledge advantage/market information. The only problem is that is a lot of work, JOB, there is no free lunch.

Congrats on the good call. People like Peter Lynch, Bill Miller, and Warren Buffet have managed to make good calls for a decade or so. Most others learn bad habits that lead to underperformance, even before fees. I have learned that the market average less low expenses is enough to meet my objectives YMMV.

[Rianne]

We've had our highs and lows with the stock market and mutual funds. I won't be devastated if we break even. Kind of like going to the casino. At our age, I just want preservation and some interest. I look back at December 2021. I thought "YEY" we can spend more and be comfortable. Now we'll spend the same and be comfortable. No debt, a few vacations a year. NBD. We're so much luckier than most.

[target2019]

Quote:

Originally Posted by target2019 My interpretation now is that MichaelKnight is looking for an asset allocation that works for him.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight Could be. I've merely lowered stock allocation - and wish to get back to it - when I feel they are a bit cheaper, OR if the downturn never happens. I just felt that - I'd rather lose less money. I like keeping it if I could. Frankly I regret not having the guts to sell 100% of it. I'm downright angry with myself. Only silver lining is if I get to buy it all back cheaper.

I agree with "could be." However, when you sell into an inflationary period, and buy back later if inflation continues, will you incorporate that into your backtest?

What can be debated is how much you actually lost. Their is difficulty in appraising this going forward. You point out that there is possibly a loss of future gains. To that you entertain another move to get back in, and so on.

It's your hard-earned money and you are entitled to whatever strategy you like. Some day you may find the asset allcoation that does not cause you to make sudden market moves. Maybe not.

Enjoy the ride.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle No, you're just exceptional.... either lucky, good, or something else....

No, I am getting real old and decided to move more towards fixed income in the face of the FED bubble that has been blowing up during the last 12+ years.

We are starting to see that bubble deflate as the FED tries to control the inflation they started. I was investing in 1980 and saw the earlier version of what's to come.

People around me are dropping like flies and I am now the oldest in the family. Long term to me is maybe 10 years (Mom made it to 84 before her kidneys failed, Dad left earlier).

[daylatedollarshort]

Quote:

Originally Posted by aja8888 No, I am getting real old and decided to move more towards fixed income in the face of the FED bubble that has been blowing up during the last 12+ years. We are starting to see that bubble deflate as the FED tries to control the inflation they started. I was investing in 1980 and saw the earlier version of what's to come. People around me are dropping like flies and I am now the oldest in the family. Long term to me is maybe 10 years (Mom made it to 84 before her kidneys failed, Dad left earlier).

We're younger than you but feel the same. If "market timer" means I don't ignore the writing on the wall when inflation is 8 - 9% and the Fed says they are going to raise interest rates 7 times, them I'm pretty happy to be called a market timer. We've actually had a pretty decent year this past year, with less stocks, selling the bond funds, a pile of TIPS offsetting a low interest rate mortgage and buying more short term Treasuries and TIPS. Our goal is not to make a killing in the stock market in retirement, but if we can live well and leave the portfolio value intact in inflation adjusted dollars for our kids, I would be happy with that outcome.

[MichealKnight]

Timing the market? Yes - 30% of it. I've merely sold 30% hoping to avoid fun. 70% - is still in place, waiting to lose more value.

[11522914]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight Only silver lining is if I get to buy it all back cheaper.

I'm curious. What is your action plan for buying it all back cheaper?

[11522914]

Quote:

Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort We're younger than you but feel the same. If "market timer" means I don't ignore the writing on the wall when inflation is 8 - 9% and the Fed says they are going to raise interest rates 7 times, them I'm pretty happy to be called a market timer. We've actually had a pretty decent year this past year, with less stocks, selling the bond funds, a pile of TIPS offsetting a low interest rate mortgage and buying more short term Treasuries and TIPS. Our goal is not to make a killing in the stock market in retirement, but if we can live well and leave the portfolio value intact in inflation adjusted dollars for our kids, I would be happy with that outcome.

+1

[Out of Steam]

Happened to me in early 2020. Sold stock after a partial recovery from the first COVID-related drop. It just says that we had an allocation we couldn't live with.

We are now at 40/60 stock-bond (mostly no market value risk), and I have rebalanced twice to stay there.

[MichealKnight]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11522914 I'm curious. What is your action plan for buying it all back cheaper?

If the stocks I sold go down - buy them back.

If they go up - regret selling 30% of my holdings.

From when I've made my post - I bought *some* back cheaper. Sadly they've still gone down but my loss was less.

Still waiting for further reduction.

The SDY I sold - I think 124 is showing 114. Not bad. Few more bucks and I won't have a bottom - but I'll buy, and I'm pleased I saved a 10% loss.

"Tax loss!" "Dollar cost average!" - - facts of life - but nothing I hold up as fun and noble. Cutting losses? I like that. The Google I sold - I think at 112 is now at 99. I retained $4,000 versus losing it. To be that's substantial. For anyone who doesn't feel so - please send me a check. Even Venmo it like the kids say.

My only regret: Not selling 100% of what I had. Wall Street Scam Inc still got its claws into 70% of my stocks and I"m dutifully being a "noble holder...." and seeing net worth decline accordingly.

[FiveDriver]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichealKnight Timing the market? Yes - 30% of it. I've merely sold 30% hoping to avoid fun. 70% - is still in place, waiting to lose more value.

Good for you Michael. You don't need to explain or apologize to anybody.

I sold some portion of my QQQ's back in March when the FED first started to hike. Higher Interest Rates are rarely a good thing for Tech stocks. I got out at $362....today the QQQ's are trading around $275.

I'm sure you have a re-entry plan in mind. So do I.