Interesting Bill Bengen (Father Of 4% Rule) Video

[athena53]

One person here used a weighted figure of 30% of the 4% withdrawal (adjusted for inflation) calculation, 70% of 4% of the beginning of year balance. I complicate that by taking a minimum of the that and the straight 4% figure and use 3.5% instead of 4%. I'm actually staying a bit below that but that's OK- I don't have any other expensive "wants" and it's good to have a Stuff Happens cushion.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by athena53 One person here used a weighted figure of 30% of the 4% withdrawal (adjusted for inflation) calculation, 70% of 4% of the beginning of year balance. I complicate that by taking a minimum of the that and the straight 4% figure and use 3.5% instead of 4%. I'm actually staying a bit below that but that's OK- I don't have any other expensive "wants" and it's good to have a Stuff Happens cushion.

Yeah, I think most of us here have ended up using less than 4% (on average.) I have always assumed that is because we (here) saved (way) too much on average. Also, those who lived through 2008 know things can happen and one needs to be flexible. YMMV

[Time2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolau Yeah, I think most of us here have ended up using less than 4% (on average.) I have always assumed that is because we (here) saved (way) too much on average. Also, those who lived through 2008 know things can happen and one needs to be flexible. YMMV

The best thing about 2008 is the fantastic run up from 2009 to the end of 2021 that made it possible for many of us to retire with more than we needed or expected, and able to live on less than 4%.

[tbis]

The thing I like about the 4% rule is that it is EASY. The best thing about it is how darn close it is to the more sophisticated financial planning calculators, which, of course it should be since those calculators are all using the same historical inputs that went into figuring out the 4% was a "safe" (zombie apocalypse aside) number.

[Skyward1]

He must have decided to employ the 3rd party service to determine his market timing since he admitted to botching the entrance back into the market after exiting during/prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

[Magus]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skyward1 He must have decided to employ the 3rd party service to determine his market timing since he admitted to botching the entrance back into the market after exiting during/prior to the 2008 financial crisis.

That was me - I got out within 7% of top in 2007-2008, but didn’t get back in till it was nearly entirely back. Adjusted for dividends I did exactly the market, although I suppose I slept a bit better.

3-5% works well as long as you have flexibility for a third deviation left tail event (cut back for a couple years, work part time, etc). I’ll be able to get away from a higher than 4% “withdraw” simply because my rentals generate 7% from their current equity value in cash alone (not including principal pay down or appreciation).

[I am He]

I do wish Rob would have asked what he spends and what does he have for income? Assuming his family gets SS and perhaps an annuity, he might not need to tap the portfolio? So while it's easy to call him a hypocrite, the bottom line is it's his decision.

I also think there's a big difference between a true market timer vs someone who is strictly trying to limit losses. For ex. I've been in cash vs bonds. I'm not trying to win as much as trying not to lose.

[mickeyd]

We all understand that the 4% rule is no more than a guide to start out with. I doubt anyone really follows it to a T. It is a good place to start if you are in your 20s and have no clue.

[arcyallen]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mickeyd We all understand that the 4% rule is no more than a guide to start out with. I doubt anyone really follows it to a T. It is a good place to start if you are in your 20s and have no clue.

I agree it's a guide. It's too bad it isn't called "The 4% idea" or "The 4% plan" or something softer. You throw the word rule in there, and suddenly many people -do- consider it rock solid. I wish it wasn't called a "rule". I've seen many people (some even on here) plan on that 4% as rock solid. "Rock solid" and "future financial planning" don't play very well together!

[Time2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcyallen I agree it's a guide. It's too bad it isn't called "The 4% idea" or "The 4% plan" or something softer. You throw the word rule in there, and suddenly many people -do- consider it rock solid. I wish it wasn't called a "rule". I've seen many people (some even on here) plan on that 4% as rock solid. "Rock solid" and "future financial planning" don't play very well together!

I started using, "The 4% guide".