Is the double dip coming?

If the next employment data report is bad I'll be throwing in the towel for a while.
 
ESRwannabe said:
Now I have to assume the worst, which means missing out on the low stock prices. I hate saving cash at 1% interest when I can buy good stocks with a 3% or higher yield. :banghead:
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I don't understand what you are saying here. If you have a secure job (at least by most standards), and you have money, what requires you to invest in cash? If you feel that stocks are cheap, why not buy them?

Ha
 
I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?
 
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REWahoo said:
I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?
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If I am his parents, I don't understand either.:LOL:
 
harley said:
Just out of curiosity, has it been officially determined that the recent (or current) recession ended? I hadn't heard.
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It ended early summer of 2009. We have had several quarters of expansion since then, some of them quite strong. It just takes NBER over a year sometimes to announce the official "end". (same with starts too)

Any day now.....

The December 2007 peak was announced December 1, 2008.
The November 2001 trough was announced July 17, 2003.
The March 2001 peak was announced November 26, 2001.
The March 1991 trough was announced December 22, 1992.
etc... Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
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Audrey
 
haha said:
I don't understand what you are saying here. If you have a secure job (at least by most standards), and you have money, what requires you to invest in cash? If you feel that stocks are cheap, why not buy them?

Ha
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Because I am paranoid... :crazy:
 
REWahoo said:
I'm curious why a 33 year old guy with money in the bank and a good job would move home with his parents. Are they in poor health and in need of your help?
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No, it would be to sponge off of them rent free. So, I can save more money.

They live in a 5k sqft house and don't really use the top two floors. So, they probably wouldn't care if I stayed in a guest room.
 
ESRwannabe said:
They live in a 5k sqft house and don't really use the top two floors. So, they probably wouldn't care if I stayed in a guest room.
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Speaking as a parent, I'd want to hear the opinion of your parents...

... and of course you'd be offering them market rent, right?
 
Nords said:
Speaking as a parent, I'd want to hear the opinion of your parents...

... and of course you'd be offering them market rent, right?
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I'm charging my kid 50% market rent, of course that barely pays for the electricity and gas.
 
Pete said:
Probably positive due to census hiring and housing incentives.
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My buddy is the lead census taker at a small county in Calif. He told me they lay off and then rehire workers...which adds credence to the reports by conservative talk this is being done to inflate the number of jobs created. This and manipulation with numbers like how they figure unemployment and GDP. Hidden debt at the Fed and Freddie and Fannie, shadow inventories... Still smells like one big deflationary depression, not a single or double dip recession to me.
 
Pete, I'm beginning to suspect you have a lot of stock in companies who make this:
 

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I don't believe anything is being hidden in the employment, unemployment, hours worked, GDP, etc. reports, that wasn't being "hidden" previously. How these statistics are gathered and calculated is well-known, if not by everyday folks, at least by economists... :whistle:

So, paranoia aside, I figure there is a distribution of outcomes, bounded by [-]deep, dark depression/excessive misery[/-] hyperdeflation on one end, and hyperinflation on the other. Calculating the distribution is an exercise left to the reader... :LOL:
 
Pete said:
My buddy is the lead census taker at a small county in Calif. He told me they lay off and then rehire workers...which adds credence to the reports by conservative talk this is being done to inflate the number of jobs created. This and manipulation with numbers like how they figure unemployment and GDP. Hidden debt at the Fed and Freddie and Fannie, shadow inventories... Still smells like one big deflationary depression, not a single or double dip recession to me.
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This could be the case. However, how are census workers paid?
Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
 
Zathras said:
Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
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I'm assuming these jobs have no benefits in that they are temporary, and if that's the case, I don't see why they can't keep someone on the payroll but simply not give them any hours from time to time.

If there's no law against that, the only other thing that makes sense is that they want the "new jobs created" statistic to be misleadingly high.
 
The only issue I have with that is the job data is depressed every time they fire them. It makes no sense to me.
Are there any liabilities to having someone on your payroll even if they work no hours?
If someone is on the payroll for X amount of time, do unemployment benefits kick in once they are fired?
 
Zathras said:
Is it cheaper, overall, for them to keep census workers on the payroll or to lay them off and rehire?
If the are spending less taxpayer money by doing it the way they are, I am all for it!
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Hiring and firing might or might not have cost savings. What I meant was that laying someone off then rehiring them could be counted as another job created, meaning the 400k jobs claimed to have been created might not actually be true.
 
Perhaps I am a bit negative. The threads initial question was, are we headed for a double dip. I don't think we ever got out of the first one. I want to believe. Anything relating to real jobs, real profits, real wealth creation or real growth would be appreciated. (real being something not temporarily created by gov't intervention) I want to be a buy and holder again, expecting my 8% growth. Those were fun times.
 
Pete said:
I want to be a buy and holder again, expecting my 8% growth. Those were fun times.
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Prepare for disappointment. I don't think those times are returning any time soon. That doesn't mean I'm ultra bearish, but I see too many demographic and economic headwinds to expect that kind of vigorous, sustained growth. I can imagine being a geezer and telling youngsters that "yeah, I remember the days of 5% unemployment."
 
I understand the desire for good times again Pete.
I just am trying to consider facts rather than government conspiracy theories;)
Long term jobs are much better than temporary jobs. However,temporary are better than NO job.
How do you feel about construction jobs? Many of those are temporary in nature as well (although a longer time than census temp positions).
the jobs data on Friday is probably going to take a huge hit with the loss of the temporary census workers. The interesting thing to see will be the number of private sector jobs.
 
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