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Old 10-04-2022, 02:25 PM   #41
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The past 2-3 days I have been watching youtubes with original footage of the 1930's dustbowl migration. The determination and resourcefulness shown by those farming families, who lost everything in those dust storms, are absolutely inspirational. Didn't mean to change the topic, but to me it is very impressive.
Watching documentaries and films, I am often struck by how much harder the average person's life was 100-150 years ago. Even when times were relatively stable, when the middle class was much smaller, and without the help of the machines we have today, life for a regular person was quite a slog. There was a TV show in the UK called "The 1900 House", in which a modern family was transplanted into a house from 1900, and lived the life of an average family back then. The house was from the era, and was completely retrofitted with the types of amenities and gadgets that would have been present then. Just the seemingly simple act of doing laundry for the family took 2 or 3 full days every week. It was a labor-intensive process!

Most of us are blessed, and many of us don't realize it.
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Old 10-04-2022, 02:31 PM   #42
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Watching documentaries and films, I am often struck by how much harder the average person's life was 100-150 years ago. Even when times were relatively stable, when the middle class was much smaller, and without the help of the machines we have today, life for a regular person was quite a slog. There was a TV show in the UK called "The 1900 House", in which a modern family was transplanted into a house from 1900, and lived the life of an average family back then. The house was from the era, and was completely retrofitted with the types of amenities and gadgets that would have been present then. Just the seemingly simple act of doing laundry for the family took 2 or 3 full days every week. It was a labor-intensive process!

Most of us are blessed, and many of us don't realize it.
This it?

Looks interesting, thanks for the post.
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Old 10-04-2022, 02:31 PM   #43
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Most of us are blessed, and many of us don't realize it.
That's certainly very true of course, but in fairness it only seems to us that folks 100 years ago had it so tough. It didn't appear that way to them; it was simply life as they knew it.

Now that we all have flying cars, robot servants to do all our chores for us, and weekend vacations on the Moon, we can look back and shake our heads at what those poor primitives had to go through. But it's hindsight, and we should remember that. A hundred years from now, people (if there are any left) will look back at our lives and think the same.
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Old 10-04-2022, 02:40 PM   #44
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Watching documentaries and films, I am often struck by how much harder the average person's life was 100-150 years ago. Even when times were relatively stable, when the middle class was much smaller, and without the help of the machines we have today, life for a regular person was quite a slog. There was a TV show in the UK called "The 1900 House", in which a modern family was transplanted into a house from 1900, and lived the life of an average family back then. The house was from the era, and was completely retrofitted with the types of amenities and gadgets that would have been present then. Just the seemingly simple act of doing laundry for the family took 2 or 3 full days every week. It was a labor-intensive process!

Most of us are blessed, and many of us don't realize it.
So true. By the time we made our entrance, life was much easier, I suppose due in large part to the ingenuity and hard work of our ancestors.

I can't even imagine being a farmer today, much less back in the 1930's. And then to have those nightmarish dust storms blowing all the soil away? wow. The video of failed farmers (through no fault of their own) loading up a dozen kids and a couple of chairs on their car or pickup truck, and heading west through a black dust storm to an unknown place and unknown future was just insane. I don't think many of us today can even imagine doing something that brave.

But it gives me hope for the future. We are a strong people and can survive a lot more than we think.
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Old 10-04-2022, 02:44 PM   #45
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The video of failed farmers (through no fault of their own) loading up a dozen kids and a couple of chairs on their car or pickup truck, and heading west
Seemed to turn out OK for some.
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Old 10-04-2022, 02:58 PM   #46
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This it?

Looks interesting, thanks for the post.
Yes, that's it. I found it quite engaging.

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That's certainly very true of course, but in fairness it only seems to us that folks 100 years ago had it so tough. It didn't appear that way to them; it was simply life as they knew it.

Now that we all have flying cars, robot servants to do all our chores for us, and weekend vacations on the Moon, we can look back and shake our heads at what those poor primitives had to go through. But it's hindsight, and we should remember that. A hundred years from now, people (if there are any left) will look back at our lives and think the same.
I agree. I grew up listening to the very memorable tales of my Mum's side of the family. They all grew up close to each other. Materially, they had what they needed, and not much more. Stories included the one man on their street who actually owned a car, and gave everyone a ride to church on Sunday. The car struggled going uphill, and they often had to jump out and help push. The family were close, and helped each other out. My Mum was widowed in WW2. Her brothers pulled together and helped her. They didn't have a lot, but they worked hard, and had each other. Perhaps I'm looking at the past through something of a rose-tinted lens, but this is how great memories are made, IMO.

On a vaguely related note, I occasionally wonder at the historical changes we are living through. Then I realize that you could probably pick any 20 or 30 year period in history, and the people living then would have thought the same - that they were living through interesting and rapidly changing times.
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Old 10-04-2022, 03:07 PM   #47
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Watching documentaries and films, I am often struck by how much harder the average person's life was 100-150 years ago. Even when times were relatively stable, when the middle class was much smaller, and without the help of the machines we have today, life for a regular person was quite a slog. There was a TV show in the UK called "The 1900 House", in which a modern family was transplanted into a house from 1900, and lived the life of an average family back then. The house was from the era, and was completely retrofitted with the types of amenities and gadgets that would have been present then. Just the seemingly simple act of doing laundry for the family took 2 or 3 full days every week. It was a labor-intensive process!

Most of us are blessed, and many of us don't realize it.
IMHO, some of the most interesting papers and books on just that subject are by John Maynard Keynes and John Kenneth Galbraith. Keynes wondered what future generations would do with all their free time once the "economic problem", i.e. basic food, clothing and shelter, had been solved by technology. Which we have now - supermarkets for food, washing machines, automatic dishwashers, we can buy soap at the store instead of making our own lye, etc.

Post Keynes, Gailbraith lamented in his book, "Affluent Society", that despite advances in technology and human productivity, people were working even more hours per week in modern times for low value and useless items, that really didn't add that much to their happiness levels. He gave credit to marketers for creating demand where none should logically exist.

I think a lot about what these guys wrote, and also look at current happiness studies. The actual research on happiness tends to validate their ideas. Factors outside the necessities of life that really make people happy usually don't cost a lot and include social connections, art, music, forest bathing, expressing gratitude, and being a part of the community. All things that are hard to do if one if working and commuting 60 hours a week just to acquire more items that do not contribute to true happiness. My lifestyle now is really centered around a lot of what these guys wrote, and avoiding wants only created by corporate marketing.
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Old 10-04-2022, 03:07 PM   #48
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Seemed to turn out OK for some.
Well, a few well nourished, rich actors just don't get it across to me as well as the real thing. I didn't look to find the video which was most poignant (that I saw yesterday) but here's another one showing real people from the era:

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Old 10-04-2022, 03:19 PM   #49
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I realize that you could probably pick any 20 or 30 year period in history, and the people living then would have thought the same - that they were living through interesting and rapidly changing times.
In a more serious vein, I honestly believe that what's called "the greatest generation" in Tom Brokaw's words were in fact something very special.

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America's citizen heroes and heroines who came of age during the Great Depression and the Second World War and went on to build modern America. This generation was united not only by a common purpose, but also by common values--duty, honor, economy, courage, service, love of family and country, and, above all, responsibility for oneself.
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Old 10-04-2022, 03:46 PM   #50
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Yes, that's it. I found it quite engaging.



I agree. I grew up listening to the very memorable tales of my Mum's side of the family. They all grew up close to each other. Materially, they had what they needed, and not much more. Stories included the one man on their street who actually owned a car, and gave everyone a ride to church on Sunday. The car struggled going uphill, and they often had to jump out and help push. The family were close, and helped each other out. My Mum was widowed in WW2. Her brothers pulled together and helped her. They didn't have a lot, but they worked hard, and had each other. Perhaps I'm looking at the past through something of a rose-tinted lens, but this is how great memories are made, IMO.

On a vaguely related note, I occasionally wonder at the historical changes we are living through. Then I realize that you could probably pick any 20 or 30 year period in history, and the people living then would have thought the same - that they were living through interesting and rapidly changing times.
I have a book copy (pdf of it) I found in the Library of Congress that was written between the late 1890's and early 1900's detailing the settling of the Naugatuck Valley in Connecticut (late 1600s) where I was raised. This book took years of research to write and re-edit based on new information. What a great piece of work. This book is nearly 900 pages long and written in great detail with many maps and drawings.

If one thinks it was tough living in this country in the early 1900's, the struggles settlers had in the early 1700's were many times worse. And in some cases, towns were settled, lost from bad crop years, Indian attacks, etc, and then resettled again.

Back then, women had many children and sometimes 10 or more. Some offspring died at birth and the mother did too. Children were needed to work the farms and help in many ways. Disease was always a problem and in many cases, entire families and villages were decimated by it. Tough life, for sure.
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Old 10-04-2022, 04:16 PM   #51
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In a more serious vein, I honestly believe that what's called "the greatest generation" in Tom Brokaw's words were in fact something very special.
I am often reminded that the people of "The Greatest Generation" - most of my older relatives who are now long gone, - lived through a Great Depression and at least one if not two World Wars.
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Old 10-04-2022, 04:21 PM   #52
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I am often reminded that the people of "The Greatest Generation" - most of my older relatives who are now long gone, - lived through a Great Depression and at least one if not two World Wars.
Agreed. I'll always remember what my father told me after I was a grown boy and asked about why he was in WWII. He was 17 and working in a coal mine as a youth before the war.

He told me he lied about his age to the recruiter and enlisted since fighting the Japanese seems safer than working in a coal mine in eastern Pennsylvania.
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Old 10-05-2022, 01:24 PM   #53
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Well, what goes up, must come down. And what goes down, must come up. So, in a sense they are all "head fakes" as you put it. Probably best not to count your chickens!
By "head fake" I meant what looked like a positive trend that really isn’t, rather than a normal up down of the market. Again, I DO hope the trend up continues but I don’t think it will until we see layoffs and more people afraid to spend. Still too many Help Wanted signs out there
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Old 10-07-2022, 04:15 PM   #54
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Different, yes. I don’t know when both stocks and bonds have been down at the same time before. Worse, who knows. Society, social norms, & economics are different. To start many under 30 year olds do not believe in home ownership or the need for a car. The pace of technological change is faster than it has ever been.

Just remember your loss is on paper until you sell. I’m sticking with my 55/45 allocation.
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Old 10-07-2022, 04:20 PM   #55
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By "head fake" I meant what looked like a positive trend that really isn’t, rather than a normal up down of the market. Again, I DO hope the trend up continues but I don’t think it will until we see layoffs and more people afraid to spend. Still too many Help Wanted signs out there
I'm not a doomer, but am not convinced that labor shortages and a substantial recession can't exist at the same time.

Just because marketing executives at Facebook get laid off doesn't mean that there will be enough nurses, plumbers, or fast food workers.
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Old 10-07-2022, 04:24 PM   #56
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One way it's different is we have a bunch of investors that have gone 14 years without any sort of really sustained market drop. The sort of (temporary) courage that builds up with that is going to have some unknown effects. There are a LOT of people that are pretty sure they know what the market is going to do and haven't seen any shocking surprises. Those surprises are coming - they always are.

I'M shocked and surprised that the markets haven't seemed to care much about some ridiculously huge global events - like a freaking pandemic.
I am one of those 14 yr investors. Although I don't like what I see...i also understand in 14 yrs the markets will be higher then today. Maybe I'm wrong in this but I doubt it. I am just going to keep buying in as fast and as much as possible and if that strategy fails me at least I will own a bunch of equity shares.
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Old 10-07-2022, 04:32 PM   #57
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Mostly not different.

But Fed action historically need not also battle excessive government spending which is also inflationary.

That part is not typical. And rates rising from a historically low base.
+1
And I'll add is not likely to change any time soon.
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Old 10-07-2022, 04:42 PM   #58
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Just remember your loss is on paper until you sell.
I keep reading and hearing the above. But, I ask myself "how this can be true?" and I can't see it. If I bought a stock, bond, house, artwork, whatever for $1000 and for some reason a year later people will only pay $800 for it, then I have lost $200 at that moment. Period. If I have to sell it to fix a leaky roof, I would only get $800.

I can understand locking in a gain or loss. But, I can't understand how a lower price for something is just on paper.
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Old 10-07-2022, 05:19 PM   #59
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My ex MIL's husband worked for General Motors for decades and had an executive job in Detroit. He passed in the 50's from a heart attack. She remarried a few years later and that's when I came on the scene (1976) and married her daughter.

Many years passed and we understood she had a boatload of GM stock and was keeping that for her heirs. I recall her two sons, who also worked for GM, telling her to sell it and get into something else as GM was not doing well at the time. Well, she didn't sell and GM went BK. So long stock. She could have sold it and even taking a loss, would have something of value.

When she passed, all she had to leave for her heirs was a small house, some cash, and personal belongings. Her second husband, a great guy, passed just before she did. They were both in their 90s.
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Old 10-07-2022, 05:28 PM   #60
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Ah, yes. General Motors.

"What's good for General Motors is good for the country"

Remember that one? So glad I didn't have good enough grades to be hired by Ford. Which led to working the automation business in California!

The king is dead, long live the king.
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