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Jeremy Siegel accuses the Fed of making another big mistake
09-24-2022, 05:45 AM
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#1
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Jeremy Siegel accuses the Fed of making another big mistake
He may have a point.
While this is not Siegel’s, I found this argument about the Fed may cause further inflation, by pushing rent demand. The core pce inflation includes rent. Rent is higher because people cant afford 6.5% mortgages to buy houses, so many are forced to renting and forcing rent prices to go up. If the Fed continues to increase rates, no one will buy houses and force rental priced even higher. The Fed should just excluded rent in the pce, because it’s a loop. The Fed could be causing the rent inflation, by jacking up the demand for rentals higher. Where will people go if they can’t afford to buy a house? They rent. Rental demand goes up, fueling further rent inflation
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/454bdea5...my-siegel.html
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09-24-2022, 06:10 AM
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#2
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I dunno, OP. Are you reading the comment about rent? Or did you write Baer Markit's comment?
Rent in the CPI is complex. It has "real rent" and "equivalent" values. We'll see the equivalent values start easing next year because they are based squarely on home prices.
Let's not forget that extraordinary rises in home prices ALSO forces people away from home ownership towards renting. The free money out there caused this crazy rise. This tightening will stop it. Evidence is that it already has, and painfully.
Powell didn't say this will be fun. He used the term "pain" quite a bit.
To all who haven't experienced inflationary periods in their life, I say "welcome to misery."
Siegel has some points, but I disagree with your and "Baer Markit" comments.
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09-24-2022, 06:16 AM
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#3
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Administrator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
He may have a point.
While this is not Siegel’s, I found this argument about the Fed may cause further inflation, by pushing rent demand. The core pce inflation includes rent. Rent is higher because people cant afford 6.5% mortgages to buy houses, so many are forced to renting and forcing rent prices to go up. If the Fed continues to increase rates, no one will buy houses and force rental priced even higher. The Fed should just excluded rent in the pce, because it’s a loop. The Fed could be causing the rent inflation, by jacking up the demand for rentals higher. Where will people go if they can’t afford to buy a house? They rent. Rental demand goes up, fueling further rent inflation
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/454bdea5...my-siegel.html
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Paywalled, so I can't read his explanation. But if I understand the way the BLS calculates the CPI, Owner Equivalent Rent has almost 3 times the effect on CPI as actual rent does. If more people rent, then I would expect that while the actual rents go up, the OER does not so much, since it is just a somewhat "sticky" opinion by people who own. Counterintuitively, this may actually act to lower CPI and, hence, inflation. I'm not entirely sure, but it is worth considering.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/o...current%20rent.
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09-24-2022, 06:25 AM
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#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Paywalled, so I can't read his explanation. But if I understand the way the BLS calculates the CPI, Owner Equivalent Rent has almost 3 times the effect on CPI as actual rent does. If more people rent, then I would expect that while the actual rents go up, the OER does not so much, since it is just a somewhat "sticky" opinion by people who own. Counterintuitively, this may actually act to lower CPI and, hence, inflation. I'm not entirely sure, but it is worth considering.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/o...current%20rent.
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Exactly, Gumby. I don't see Siegel making specific observations on rent. That is all in the reader commentary. Siegel's comments were on commodities and unemployment.
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09-24-2022, 06:27 AM
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#5
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I believe that the biggest mistake that the Fed is making, exactly the same as Greenspan made just before exiting, is that they are raising rates too fast and not waiting until the rate increases flow through to the economic data. I believe this happens when the Fed gets caught flat-footed and knocked off kilter - they want to show they are in control, although it's entirely reactionary.
The problem which the Fed now faces, and will become even bigger should they continue rate increases rather than pausing, is that these current rate hikes will not show in the economic data until 6 months from now! Think of inertia and how a cruise ship or aircraft carrier comes to a stop...it's a very long process. You can't just slam on the breaks when you get close to the destination and stop on a dime. For the ship, it's a slow/gradual/orchestrated process that can take up to an hour. For the Fed, I believe they really need to pause a few months to get a better idea of the effect the rate increases are having.
We'll obviously see how it plays out, but my guess is that they've already gone too far and will begin reversing course come January or February...which if you think about it sounds ridiculous if they plan any more increases between now and then.
Bottom line, I believe they are out of control and a soft landing is completely off the table at this point as we are already seeing things begin to "break" in the economy.
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09-24-2022, 06:50 AM
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#6
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Not clear to me if this thread is about the rent component of CPI or Jeremy Siegel saying the Fed made some policy mistakes.
Regarding the Fed, it’s pretty clear that any action taken or not taken by the Fed will be severely criticized in the media by some group who can assure us they would have taken different policy measures.
I think Mr. Siegel’s counter-factual policy measure - what he would have done and how it would have avoided all the things he is criticizing - is good enough for him to join the other members here on ER Forum who have similar views.
There’s no reason to think anyone or any other policy measures would have led to a different outcome.
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09-24-2022, 07:05 AM
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#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Paywalled, so I can't read his explanation.
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Right click on the Continue Reading button, then click Open In New Private Window (or however your browser terms it).
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09-24-2022, 07:50 AM
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#8
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Re-litigating the past does not accomplish much. But the Fed has raised aggressively and we won't know for a while if it has been too aggressive.
I did learn in my first Econ course that it takes 6-12 months for Fed actions to be felt in the economy. So they are flying somewhat blind with these hikes.
My guess is they slow hikes from here but dots said otherwise, predicting another 75 basis point hike this year.
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09-24-2022, 07:59 AM
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#9
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No, I'm not Baer Markit nor did I write it. Just thought he had a point as all rental prices are increasing and that was the cultprit with the last CPI report, not commodity prices as oil has been going down. So, it was mainly rental prices going up that pushed the CPI index, and not with other CPI components.
Here in my area, houses rented for $1,800/mo last year is now $2,800/mo this year. That's how much rental inflation has increased. In Zillows, when I choose 'rentals' in my area, Zillows is still suggesting rental prices at $1,800 for these houses, but the range of several rental houses is now actually at $2,500 - $2,800. Seems like the rental demand for houses shoot up instead of people buying houses now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
I dunno, OP. Are you reading the comment about rent? Or did you write Baer Markit's comment?
Rent in the CPI is complex. It has "real rent" and "equivalent" values. We'll see the equivalent values start easing next year because they are based squarely on home prices.
Let's not forget that extraordinary rises in home prices ALSO forces people away from home ownership towards renting. The free money out there caused this crazy rise. This tightening will stop it. Evidence is that it already has, and painfully.
Powell didn't say this will be fun. He used the term "pain" quite a bit.
To all who haven't experienced inflationary periods in their life, I say "welcome to misery."
Siegel has some points, but I disagree with your and "Baer Markit" comments.
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09-24-2022, 08:15 AM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeWras
Let's not forget that extraordinary rises in home prices ALSO forces people away from home ownership towards renting. The free money out there caused this crazy rise. This tightening will stop it. Evidence is that it already has, and painfully.
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I'm quoting the above because it's exactly what I was thinking.
A few percentage points on mortgages isn't what's keeping people from buying homes. It's been the insane rise in prices. That, of course, was driven largely by low rates, and also by FOMO and speculation.
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09-24-2022, 08:24 AM
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#11
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
No, I'm not Baer Markit nor did I write it. Just thought he had a point as all rental prices are increasing and that was the cultprit with the last CPI report, not commodity prices as oil has been going down. So, it was mainly rental prices going up that pushed the CPI index, and not with other CPI components.
Here in my area, houses rented for $1,800/mo last year is now $2,800/mo this year. That's how much rental inflation has increased. In Zillows, when I choose 'rentals' in my area, Zillows is still suggesting rental prices at $1,800 for these houses, but the range of several rental houses is now actually at $2,500 - $2,800. Seems like the rental demand for houses shoot up instead of people buying houses now.
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Suppose I were chosen as one of the BLS data sources for owner equivalent rent. I have no idea what my house would rent for, so I would probably look to Zillow to get an idea. What I have seen there is that the estimated rental amount is some standard percentage of the estimated home value. And after peaking this summer, the Zillow estimated home value is going down, so the estimated rent is going down. If the real estate sales market decreases generally, I would expect that Zillow rent estimate to go down too and probably the OER. And, under the BLS methodology, my OER going down has 3X the impact of the actual rent on the rental house next door going up by an equivalent amount.
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09-24-2022, 08:36 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie
I believe that the biggest mistake that the Fed is making, exactly the same as Greenspan made just before exiting, is that they are raising rates too fast and not waiting until the rate increases flow through to the economic data. I believe this happens when the Fed gets caught flat-footed and knocked off kilter - they want to show they are in control, although it's entirely reactionary.
The problem which the Fed now faces, and will become even bigger should they continue rate increases rather than pausing, is that these current rate hikes will not show in the economic data until 6 months from now! Think of inertia and how a cruise ship or aircraft carrier comes to a stop...it's a very long process. You can't just slam on the breaks when you get close to the destination and stop on a dime. For the ship, it's a slow/gradual/orchestrated process that can take up to an hour. For the Fed, I believe they really need to pause a few months to get a better idea of the effect the rate increases are having.
We'll obviously see how it plays out, but my guess is that they've already gone too far and will begin reversing course come January or February...which if you think about it sounds ridiculous if they plan any more increases between now and then.
Bottom line, I believe they are out of control and a soft landing is completely off the table at this point as we are already seeing things begin to "break" in the economy.
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This is precisely why I've been locking in some longer term rates, albeit very slowly, because nobody knows how far rates will go.
Sure, we have the Fed interest rate plots but that could change quickly.
So I'll slowly continue to lock in longer terms (5 to 10yr) and see what happens.
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09-24-2022, 08:39 AM
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#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 11522914
This is precisely why I've been locking in some longer term rates, albeit very slowly, because nobody knows how far rates will go.
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Me too, but I've only gone to 3.
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09-24-2022, 08:50 AM
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#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby
Suppose I were chosen as one of the BLS data sources for owner equivalent rent. I have no idea what my house would rent for, so I would probably look to Zillow to get an idea. What I have seen there is that the estimated rental amount is some standard percentage of the estimated home value. And after peaking this summer, the Zillow estimated home value is going down, so the estimated rent is going down. If the real estate sales market decreases generally, I would expect that Zillow rent estimate to go down too and probably the OER. And, under the BLS methodology, my OER going down has 3X the impact of the actual rent on the rental house next door going up by an equivalent amount.
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That's right, Gumby. Sorry if I'm repeating myself from another thread, but this may be useful to add onto what you are saying.
OER is not about capital investment of your house. It is about what we would all pay if we all rented. You can read about it in depth at the following link. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.htm
In summary, 23% of the CPI number comes from survey data asking the following question: " If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?"
I was not part of a BLS survey, but I was part of a similar official government survey for two years that tracked unemployment, employment, wage and family structure.
The process went like this, and I suspect BLS is similar for OER:
- We were randomly selected and basically told we CANNOT opt out. They mailed and called us incessantly until I responded. The reason you can't opt out is they don't want self selection. The survey group is very small, but statistically very clean.
- Our first answer was via a live interview, where the interviewer prompted us a bit to give a clean answer. I suspect the same may happen with OER.
- Surveys after that were every two months via phone. They may do it the same way, or through internet these days.
- There was an opportunity to say "no change". Depending on how the respondent feels, they may or may not do the research to update their personal OER number and instead opt for "no change."
So, assuming it is somewhat similar, the first number will be good, and then after that there is a temptation to give a "no change" answer, which makes it a bit sticky. However, every month 1/24th of the survey group rotates out and new people come in. They'll have very clean answers.
EDIT: I did some research ( https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/design.htm). OER and Rent are asked of participants every 6 months, and they participate for 6 years. 1/6th of the survey turns over per year. All this says is that the numbers are pretty sticky! Even more so than the survey I was in which lasted for 2 years.
The point is OER will lag, whether going up or down.
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The blame game is starting
09-24-2022, 02:04 PM
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#15
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The blame game is starting
My "thesis" (aka rambling) over at least the past 12 months is that inflation was never transitory and that the Fed had been (and remains) *WAY* behind the curve. My ramblings also include that there will be *INTENSE* pressure and criticism on the Fed as the economic situation deteriorates.
The YoY CPI change remains over 8%, and treasuries are all under 5%. This is an accommodative stance and we have BARELY begun QT activities. Even with this, people are starting to come out of the woodwork about the Fed. If anything, the CPI changes have UNDERESTIMATED real inflation, and things like OER have underestimated the impact to rents and housing costs.
There is a tendency to over-think things. The reality is simpler - we have had a way too accommodative system (both monetary wise and fiscal) and year after year of near zero interest rates that have helped to create zombie companies (who should have failed already), out of control housing prices, and in general bubbles across a variety of asset classes.
As of now, the Fed realizes (in hind sight) an "oh Sh*t" moment, and thus the effort to get the already out of the barn inflation back in. Now people are finally realizing it.
The unfortunate truth is that there is no good way out of this situation.
I still maintain my thesis/crazy talk - It won't be long until there are cries for the fed to stop and cries in the halls of congress about having to "do something" because people are hurting, and anyone who says "wait a minute, is more spending that we don't have really wise" will be accused of being heartless. All of that is true - people will be hurting. What isn't understood (and won't be) is WHY that is true. The result of this will be the cranking up of the printing press (either fiscally or via the fed or more likely both) and while the inflation beast might at first look like it is headed back to the barn, that will be short lived.
One more point - The US $ has been rallying against other major currencies. $DXY was 93.xx a year ago, 113.xx now, about a 20%+ rise. That has dramatically helped us in terms of inflation. Think about what we would be facing if instead of rallying 20% in a year, the dollar declines 20%.
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09-24-2022, 03:35 PM
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#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded
...One more point - The US $ has been rallying against other major currencies. $DXY was 93.xx a year ago, 113.xx now, about a 20%+ rise. That has dramatically helped us in terms of inflation. Think about what we would be facing if instead of rallying 20% in a year, the dollar declines 20%.
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This has been on my mind, too.
I have no crystal ball to tell me when or if the dollar might weaken again, but I assume the current strength is an anomaly, and things will eventually return to more typical exchange rates.
Am I correct to assume that would give us a significant jolt of inflation, beyond what we're already seeing?
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09-24-2022, 03:37 PM
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#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo
I did learn in my first Econ course that it takes 6-12 months for Fed actions to be felt in the economy. So they are flying somewhat blind with these hikes.
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I remember an Econ professor saying that "There is a lot of slip twixt the cup and the lip" when it comes to Fed actions.
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09-24-2022, 03:47 PM
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#18
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Larry Summers has been pointing out for months, if not longer, how the Fed was way behind on moving up interest rates. We could easily be headed for either continued high inflation, if the Fed doesn't keep raising rates, or high interest rates, if they do get serious about inflation, at least in the next year or two. It just the basic math of what has always worked in the past. Unless the current Fed members come up with some new, novel approach to fight inflation, never implemented by any U.S Fed board before, or world events change suddenly to lower inflation, like the war and pandemic end, interest rates are going to have to get out ahead of inflation in order to curb it.
High inflation effects everyone long term. Recession unemployment might go up to 7% or so for a year to two, meaning the vast majority of people still stay employed. The Fed looks like they are picking the latter of two evils.
Larry Summers was right all along about inflation. His ominous new prediction for what's next. (msn.com) - "Getting to the answers is a primer in Summers’ view that the heart of economics is arithmetic. He reckons that “underlying inflation,” excluding food and energy, is running at 4% to 4.5%, pretty close to the PCEPI (personal consumption expenditure price index) numbers that guide the Fed. (The PCEPI is calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and widely used by the federal government, including to adjust Social Security payments.) In the Summers playbook, taming inflation requires a “real,” Fed funds rate that’s 1.0% to 1.5% higher than the pace of bedrock inflation.
By his reckoning, the right number is 5.0% to 5.5%. That’s far above the current Fed funds benchmark which is at a midpoint of 3.1%. Of course, the markets and most observers expect the Fed to go big again at the next several meetings. But the Fed funds futures markets, and the members of the Open Market Committee in their most recent poll, expect the number to max out at 4.6% next year. So Summers is calling for much higher Fed funds rate, and tighter policies, than investors or the Fed itself are anticipating."
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09-24-2022, 08:48 PM
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#19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptTom
This has been on my mind, too.
I have no crystal ball to tell me when or if the dollar might weaken again, but I assume the current strength is an anomaly, and things will eventually return to more typical exchange rates.
Am I correct to assume that would give us a significant jolt of inflation, beyond what we're already seeing?
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It would result in higher import prices. So yes that would add to inflation, all other factors being equal.
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10-01-2022, 08:46 AM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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Starting to Doubt
Disclosure: I don't know the background of Mr Powell nor do I know who or where he gets his advice or information from.
However, I have seen that many times - at the corporate level and governmental level - folks who know tons of theory, who love their symposiums and study groups and studies - might at times ignore, or not be aware of, or want to be aware of events on the ground. And yes - 20/20 hindsight from me, a yum-yum on the internet is easy - after all I was not in the decision maker's chair.
But it does seem that while people on the street knew otherwise - Team Powell held on to "transitory" inflation theory too long. Others said inflation is a "high class problem". Fast forward to now - even though it hurts - for me and most anyone with any skin in the game - I'm glad they are fighting inflation though now, I agree with Siegel - they might be going too far, too fast the other way.
Furthrmore - I'm not sure how "2%" inflation is a realistic goal. When I look at major parts of CPI:
WAGES
******
Anyone running a business. Anyone sitting in a restaurant waiting for their entree - - will tell you we are short on labor. The last year saw the lower-rung of the ladder getting raises - raises that are not even in parity with inflation. I don't see how a restaurant, a landscaping company, whatever calls everyone in and says "we're taking your raises away" and expect to keep a workforce.
Furthermore, there's many in America who spent years proclaiming "fairness" "15 an hour" - all the while enjoying investment returns on a tax deferred basis, and many times -earnings created via cheap money, and cheaper labor. Well, now - - anyone from Starbucks to Amazon to Home Depot sees workers in the infancy of organizing and demanding more wages and benefits. In other words - bumper sticker slogans that made some feel good - -- are now getting real. The shareholder - will be sharing.
Housing
*******
I've missed where there was a national dialogue or effort to increase housing supply. Certainly we allowed demand to increase. Sure , rates ARE pushing prices down - -- but rates are higher so all that means is a young buyer will pay MORE in payment - only less towards principle and more to Big Banks.
Rents certainly can soften if there's mass unemployment. This remains to be seen (yes, part of making big decisions is knowing what you don't know - not proclaiming bumper sticker targets and slogans)
Autos
*****
Some buyer pushback? Yeah, we're seeing a bit in used cars. A bit.
But even if rates go UP another point or two: There's enough pent up demand. A mentor of mine who owns 7 dealerships - this morning showed me - - -6 months of pre-sold orders and that's just plain the norm right now. Production isn't increasing enough to affect this yet - - my point is that car prices won't go down in a consequential way.
Energy
******
Some countries across the pond are leading the way and enjoying life without dirty energy. I wish them well. And while things can soften - there's still billions of people in the world who haven't had a car yet. Or central heating. There will be demand for energy so while it will get cheaper - I don't feel it will be cheap.
So when I look at some key components: Labor, Housing, Autos, Energy.......I foresee a softening, but seriously doubt it tanks enough to hit 2% inflation rates that stick.
And all this assumes that not *one* geopolitical situation goes wrong - which really ties the Fed's hands because that would mean raising rates while economic calamity happens.
So between what I see as mis-steps by Fed and in public policy - and then - across the pond UK adding STIMULATIVE measures while inflation rages -- I'm starting to not take for granted that the 'smart people' and 'grown ups' are in the non political positions that maneuver the economic levers that matter.
If it were unto me- -- there would be a pause in hiking now, to see how it all digests. If it were up to me - I'd look for a few grown-ups from varying political spheres , put them in a room and swear them to refrain from anything stimulative, and to take such *off* the table politically. Pretend we're a 1st world nation and govern accordingly from time to time.
I tend to be too pessimistic for my own good but there's also a fine line between being pessimistic, and cautious. I'm starting to believe that the new American Dream is NOT a picket fence, a home, and state college for junior...but the new American Dream might turn out to be: "I can pay my bills this month".
Yeah, I'm so glad I have young kids now. Geez I'm overweight and ugly, I just can't imagine what the Wifey was even thinking on both of those nights.
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