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JPM - 60/40 Portfolio - 3.5% returns
Old 07-04-2020, 09:02 AM   #1
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JPM - 60/40 Portfolio - 3.5% returns

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp...ear-2020-07-01

JPM saying that the 60-40 portfolio will be a 3.5% bonanza in coming years.
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Old 07-04-2020, 09:17 AM   #2
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Before paying any attention to the article I would like to review JPM's comprehensive and audited record comparing past predictions with actual results. Wait .. wait! There is no such document?!??! I wonder why.

Amazing coincidence there, too, that they are recommending "hybrid" and very profitable products that JPM just happens to offer.

This kind of stuff is just pornography for investors.
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Old 07-04-2020, 09:18 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by MichealKnight View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp...ear-2020-07-01

JPM saying that the 60-40 portfolio will be a 3.5% bonanza in coming years.
so bump it to down to 20% bonds? How are the junk bonds a good choice for that hybrid 40%....? Kind of taking more of a risk
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Old 07-04-2020, 09:32 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
Before paying any attention to the article I would like to review JPM's comprehensive and audited record comparing past predictions with actual results. Wait .. wait! There is no such document?!??! I wonder why.

Amazing coincidence there, too, that they are recommending "hybrid" and very profitable products that JPM just happens to offer.

This kind of stuff is just pornography for investors.
The comments on the article support your point ...
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Old 07-04-2020, 10:00 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
Before paying any attention to the article I would like to review JPM's comprehensive and audited record comparing past predictions with actual results. Wait .. wait! There is no such document?!??! I wonder why.

Amazing coincidence there, too, that they are recommending "hybrid" and very profitable products that JPM just happens to offer.

This kind of stuff is just pornography for investors.
Yup.
Perhaps in the short term one might consider individual bonds holding to maturity vs. bond funds, but could be too much work for most.
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Old 07-04-2020, 10:28 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by MichealKnight View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp...ear-2020-07-01

JPM saying that the 60-40 portfolio will be a 3.5% bonanza in coming years.
I guess that those 3.0% and 3.5% 5-year CDs that we gourged on in 2019 will be looking pretty good on a risk adjusted basis.
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Yup
Old 07-04-2020, 12:20 PM   #7
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Yup

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I guess that those 3.0% and 3.5% 5-year CDs that we gourged on in 2019 will be looking pretty good on a risk adjusted basis.
Yes, perhaps very good choices.

I think we're in a country and world that will forever reward debt and frivolous spending. And penalize saving.

Some days I want to build up a bigger rental home portfolio, put them in LLC's...and then when the crash comes just walk away, let the bank and taxpayer take the hit, and maybe I can be on the news "yeah times are tough. I had a gun to my head I was forced to buy the nice granite and stainless steel stuff and lease my dumb Audi".

I fantasize about. But at this point tis just fantasy.
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Old 07-04-2020, 12:35 PM   #8
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I have corporate notes/bonds that pay 4.25% to 7.875% and I bought them well below par so my actual return will be much higher. I am concentrated in telecom, technology, biotech, and pharma. They are all trading above par now. My CDs are paying 3.1% to 3.25% and my cash in my money market account is yielding 1%. Stocks and bonds that the market perceives as survivors are grossly overpriced and those that have been slaughtered are value traps headed to zero.
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Old 07-04-2020, 02:04 PM   #9
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... Perhaps in the short term one might consider individual bonds holding to maturity vs. bond funds, but could be too much work for most.
That might be a good strategy on a stand-alone basis, but IMO taking any action based on this kind of monkey babble is dumb.

Develop and implement a strategy, regardless of any monkey babble. If facts on the ground justify changes, then consider them.

Warren Buffet: The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."
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Old 07-04-2020, 02:42 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by MichealKnight View Post
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp...ear-2020-07-01

JPM saying that the 60-40 portfolio will be a 3.5% bonanza in coming years.
It's not JPM saying this, it is these two JPM "strategists". There are many JPM analysts/strategists making predictions all across the spectrum.
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