Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[JoeWras]

I see some of the bond action yesterday as a response to digesting the data.

On Tuesday, there is quick euphoria at exactly 8:30:01am when the numbers hit, and traders are going to trade before digesting the info to get ahead of everyone else.

As the days have worn on, they digest. The report is good, but maybe not so good. It doesn't look like a rate cut soon. Services are sticky. Health insurance is again being reported somewhat sanely, with a change in the method again! Auto services and insurance are hot.

And so on.

[Time2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead Where prices fell in 2023 in one chart.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptTom Click bait. So, eggs and energy are way down. Could that have anything to do with the fact that they spiked way up a little while ago? That isn't a trend, it's the downward side of a bubble.

Has anyone seen a 34% reduction in their health Insurance?
I didn't any reduction, so someone must have got 68% reduction! YMMV

[DJRR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo Since you know all this I guess your posts are just some type of performance art?

Probably guilty I have a hard time interacting "correctly" on message boards. Most people don't get my sense of humor or think as highly of my opinions as I do Couple that with a career crafting response emails to let everyone else know that someone is being an asshole without them knowing, and there you go.

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJRR Probably guilty I have a hard time interacting "correctly" on message boards. Most people don't get my sense of humor or think as highly of my opinions as I do Couple that with a career crafting response emails to let everyone else know that someone is being an asshole without them knowing, and there you go.

At least we now know. And to your credit admitting it is the first Step.

And you aren't the first.

I suspect I'm supposed to ask you to elaborate on the last sentence.

[CaptTom]

Got a flyer from a credit union in yesterday's mail. 15 month CD was a lower rate than the 12 month CD. I guess that shows where they think rates are going.

[DJRR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo I suspect I'm supposed to ask you to elaborate on the last sentence.

No. If you've lived in corporate world you know the realities of protecting your people, if not it does not matter.

[Montecfo]

There has been a lot of positive inflation news recently and signs suggesting the market may see interest rates as peaking.

This week jobless claims rose to their highest level in two years though still low.

But then I saw this: Walmart CEO says prices of some good are falling and they are preparing to cut prices of some goods..

"In the US, we may be managing through a period of deflation in the coming months", he said.

He mentioned specifically eggs, chicken, seafood and pantry staples.

In my view, this may be another signpost pointing toward lower rates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/defl...lmart-ceo.html

[CaptTom]

It's already happened. Lots of food items have come down off their peaks. Not surprising, and frankly, not "deflation" in any real sense. When they go below where they were before the spike, then you can ring the "deflation" bell. Until then, click bait.

[JoeWras]

Food commodities and gasoline energy are down. A lot of the food inflation was baked in due to fertilizer increases, which are now a distant memory.

Now, when my auto repair guy only charges $300 for a dual axle simple pad-change brake job instead of $1300, then I'll believe inflation is over.

[COcheesehead]

Hotels are coming down, gas is down. There are buying incentives reappearing on certain cars.
I am seeing hard to get wines now appearing on the discount sites.
I just compared our year over year expenditures and with similar travel and “fun” we are down about $20k in spending. Why? We don’t eat out nearly as much as we used to. Our health insurance cost dropped. We went from gold to bronze with an HSA.
So our personal inflation is down, while our investment income is up due to the rise in rates.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead Our health insurance cost dropped. We went from gold to bronze with an HSA. So our personal inflation is down, while our investment income is up due to the rise in rates.

That is sort of like saying our car insurance decreased because I cancelled it and walk.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion That is sort of like saying our car insurance decreased because I cancelled it and walk.

No it’s not. We still have coverage and maybe even better. Our personal expense for health insurance dropped based actions we took. That is an example of managing personal inflation. Decisions you make.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead No it’s not. We still have coverage and maybe even better. Our personal expense for health insurance dropped based actions we took. That is an example of managing personal inflation. Decisions you make.

Still sounds like switching from steak to hamburger but that is how personal inflation works I guess.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Still sounds like switching from steak to hamburger but that is how personal inflation works I guess.

You obviously don’t understand the triple benefits of an HSA.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by COcheesehead You obviously don’t understand the triple benefits of an HSA.

Oh, I do, we just don't have the income right now to make that a good option over the silver plans. Back in the day making $300k HSA was the way.

We now return to the regularly scheduled thread.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion We now return to the regularly scheduled thread.

Great news!

[explanade]

Chinese economy being slow may be pushing oil prices down.

We don't track the action of other central banks or inflation metrics in other countries as much.

US has been doing better than Europe and developing countries.

But it would be good to see global commodity prices lowering inflation in other countries.

In the last 1-2 weeks, the dollar has fallen, which could be a reflection of anticipated lower relative interest rates in the US versus other countries.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montecfo There has been a lot of positive inflation news recently and signs suggesting the market may see interest rates as peaking. This week jobless claims rose to their highest level in two years though still low. But then I saw this: Walmart CEO says prices of some good are falling and they are preparing to cut prices of some goods.. "In the US, we may be managing through a period of deflation in the coming months", he said. He mentioned specifically eggs, chicken, seafood and pantry staples. In my view, this may be another signpost pointing toward lower rates. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/16/defl...lmart-ceo.html

Yeah, and I saw Walmart's stock took a hit yesterday on news that they see sales being softer this Christmas. Doesn't bode well for the stock, but may mean lower prices (finally.) YMMV

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeWras Food commodities and gasoline energy are down. A lot of the food inflation was baked in due to fertilizer increases, which are now a distant memory. Now, when my auto repair guy only charges $300 for a dual axle simple pad-change brake job instead of $1300, then I'll believe inflation is over.

Or $50 instead of $110 for a lousy oil change!

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by explanade In the last 1-2 weeks, the dollar has fallen, which could be a reflection of anticipated lower relative interest rates in the US versus other countries.

I think it reflects falling current treasury yields over that period.