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Old 01-27-2023, 10:55 PM   #1061
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The market doesn't believe the Fed that is why it is going up. If they do a .25 they are saying we want growth over killing inflation and the market will be right. However I have seen the market be wrong in the past so time will tell.
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Old 01-28-2023, 12:29 AM   #1062
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Ah, but how much is the hot dog and drink?
Yeah, ya got me there. I guess I'll just hang out at Costco and eat 3 meals a day. I can live on $4.50 (plus tax) per day.
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Old 01-28-2023, 04:24 AM   #1063
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Went to Shake Shack in Boca Raton Florida yesterday and ordered two Double Shacks, fries, and lemonades. It tasted so good that we forgot that we just paid $38.60 for a burger, fries, and drinks for two. Gas prices jumped from $3.18 10 days ago to $3.49 yesterday in Palm Beach County. On a positive side to inflation, our condo sold at 6.8 times what we bought it for in 2011 during the last real estate crash in Florida. This will be an all-cash private sale where the buyer is paying all close costs. So much for a slowing housing market. After paying long term capital gains, the proceeds will be invested in high grade corporate bonds earning income at over 5% versus paying monthly fees, utilities, annual property taxes and insurance on a property we were rarely using. Florida Real Estate outperformed most investments over the past 12 years and staged a remarkable turn-around from the doom and gloom of 2011.
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Old 01-28-2023, 04:46 AM   #1064
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The price increase are coming from all over but been able to down play some of them by canceling services or going w/ a different provider. I also stop stocking up on sale items because it seem a good idea at that point.


We started to just buy what we need and it seems to work out fine at this moment.
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Old 01-28-2023, 01:33 PM   #1065
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The price increase are coming from all over but been able to down play some of them by canceling services or going w/ a different provider. I also stop stocking up on sale items because it seem a good idea at that point.


We started to just buy what we need and it seems to work out fine at this moment.
The way I learned navigation of high inflation was to buy and store. Prices will go up if you wait. Generally, this has served me well, but YMMV.
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Old 01-28-2023, 01:38 PM   #1066
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The way I learned navigation of high inflation was to buy and store. Prices will go up if you wait. Generally, this has served me well, but YMMV.


Does one way, I hope to achieved greater savings when I moved later on.
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Old 01-28-2023, 05:39 PM   #1067
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If you have a chance, read Paul Krugman's latest in the New York Times, where he talks about inflation and its measurement. A taste:

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When it comes to economic assessment, feelings are no substitute for hard data. A plurality of Americans say that we’re in a recession; the actual numbers on jobs and gross domestic product show an economy that remains quite strong.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/27/o...sing-data.html
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Old 01-29-2023, 09:29 AM   #1068
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Thanks for the article. I always read Paul Krugman’s articles and can’t help but agree with this one, which shows how the data that researchers rely on to assess and project inflation are skewed, limited and selective. But I also only trust Krugman only up to a point. He’s been wrong about transformational technologies like the internet, he missed the Great Recession, he missed the current inflation spike, and he never talks about monetary inflation as a fundamental component of price inflation. To him, it’s as if the overworked money printers of central banks around the world in 2020, which created from thin air for example some 40% of all US dollars in circulation, never existed and never happened. He doesn’t like inflation but doesn’t seem to DISLIKE monetary inflation’s role in it. I think he’s wrong about that.
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Old 01-29-2023, 09:53 AM   #1069
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Right, he was wrong about inflation. I think he even admitted that a while back.
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Old 01-29-2023, 11:09 AM   #1070
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He has been very wrong about many things. Unfortunately some of these personalities become slave to politics and economic views espoused thus need heavy filtering.
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Old 01-29-2023, 11:17 AM   #1071
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And just to put a finer point on it, there is amble evidence that the economy has slowed markedly. Just look at q4 GDP sans the inventory build and government spending: under 1%.

And the record growth in credit card debt suggests people are struggling to make ends meet.
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Old 01-29-2023, 11:54 AM   #1072
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+1. And car loan delinquencies are way up. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ameri...200000703.html
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Old 01-29-2023, 12:59 PM   #1073
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There was an article in the local paper about timber prices coming back down to pre covid levels. But it seems people are not yet aware since they still don't sell much volume.


I'm thinking people are too busy paying for everything else to be interested in timber.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:04 PM   #1074
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Lower inflation rate than last year doesn't necessarily mean prices of all goods are falling.

Some goods may see falling prices or lower price increases on a percentage basis than last year.

Restaurants raised menu prices a lot. They may not drop them any time soon as long as they still get good business.

Or maybe they push more lunch specials as job growth declines or there are more and more layoffs.
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:08 PM   #1075
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Lower inflation rate than last year doesn't necessarily mean prices of all goods are falling.

Some goods may see falling prices or lower price increases on a percentage basis than last year.

Restaurants raised menu prices a lot. They may not drop them any time soon as long as they still get good business.

Or maybe they push more lunch specials as job growth declines or there are more and more layoffs.
When inflation is above zero, even if it's lower than what it was, it doesn't mean prices are dropping, just the opposite. I've mentioned this various times here, including in this thread. Positive inflation means that prices are going up on average. There are always some exceptions, of course, like gas prices that fluctuate a lot. You would need some sustained deflation to see prices fall on average.

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...ml#post2888166
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Old 01-29-2023, 01:54 PM   #1076
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Maybe it’s my imagination but the eggs in the 24 pack of extra large eggs at Costco seems to have gone on a diet. The eggs are smaller.
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Old 01-29-2023, 02:03 PM   #1077
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There was an article in the local paper about timber prices coming back down to pre covid levels. But it seems people are not yet aware since they still don't sell much volume.


I'm thinking people are too busy paying for everything else to be interested in timber.
But now they're up about 35%+ from the recent lows. 360 to 492 per thousand on Bloomberg. Fairly quick rise in timber prices. I could go into tariffs and other factors but will defer.
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Old 01-29-2023, 02:49 PM   #1078
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But now they're up about 35%+ from the recent lows. 360 to 492 per thousand on Bloomberg. Fairly quick rise in timber prices. I could go into tariffs and other factors but will defer.
These prices may be oscillating a bit. Down massively since peak, but sensitive to home construction activity (which is mostly down sharply) and changes in market perception.

I don't see much chance of a sustained rebound.
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Old 01-29-2023, 03:02 PM   #1079
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I know lumber prices were up about 400% at one point from pre-pedamic levels. The last I heard, they had never dropped near those prices and were headed back up. That's not something on my everyday shopping list.
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Old 01-29-2023, 03:11 PM   #1080
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Maybe it’s my imagination but the eggs in the 24 pack of extra large eggs at Costco seems to have gone on a diet. The eggs are smaller.
Eggland's best eggs are definitely smaller. Maybe why they have less of the bad stuff in there?
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