Latest Inflation Numbers and Discussion

[Montecfo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenXguy The term has been used in this thread, but that's still not prices coming down, which is what I've heard many times in the media and is referenced in the linked article. But someone might point out the price of eggs went down. [emoji23]

Suggest you take that to the "deflation" thread.

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenXguy The term has been used in this thread, but that's still not prices coming down, which is what I've heard many times in the media and is referenced in the linked article. But someone might point out the price of eggs went down.

Speaking of which, I bought a dozen large white eggs for $1.26. I thought there must be something wrong with the price, but they said not. Whoo, hoo!

[Chuckanut]

99 cents a dozen for large eggs at Safeway this week.

I can see why food has a volatile reputation.

[aja8888]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut 99 cents a dozen for large eggs at Safeway this week. I can see why food has a volatile reputation.

Sounds like the hen houses went on overtime!

[CaptTom]

I'll call it "deflation" when the prices fall below what they were before the sudden spikes we've seen recently.

I'm really tired of headlines forecasting doom and gloom when a bubble bursts, as if the values at the peak were somehow "normal." This can be about general inflation, oil prices, home prices, whatever.

If you insist on calling the down slope of a bubble "deflation,' then don't act like it's a bad thing. I really doubt most consumers see it that way. I guess there's no single, catchy word for "returning to somewhere close to normal."

[Gumby]

From the Federal Reserve Bank of San Franscisco

Quote:

The MIT Dictionary of Modern Economics defines deflation as "A sustained fall in the general price level." Deflation represents the opposite of inflation, which is defined as an increase in the overall price level over a period of time. In contrast, disinflation, represents a period when the inflation rate is positive, but declining over time.

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publ...lation-causes/

[Time2]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby But your continued carping about it will not improve anything - for you or anyone else.

But that's half the conversation at my weekly breakfast with the guys!

[Chuckanut]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chuckanut 99 cents a dozen for large eggs at Safeway this week. I can see why food has a volatile reputation.

Just in time the WSJ has an article on how eggs are going back on sale. Glad they have caught up with our illustrious group of inflation experts.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eggs-ar...6e13aae?page=1

“Now, egg supplies have bounced back, industry officials and farmers say, as the disease’s spread has slowed and flocks of laying hens have been rebuilt. At supermarket chains such as New York-based Tops Markets, shoppers recently saw eggs on sale for the first time in months.

“Prices should all be under $2 a dozen,” said Sue Durfee, who oversees eggs, dairy and other items at Tops. “We plan on trying to promote them once or twice a month.” The company recently offered eggs at a discounted $1.49 a dozen, and plans to run sales at $1.29 in the coming months, she said, after not giving discounts on eggs in more than a year.”

[mf15]

R-134A Freon at walmart year or so ago $4.xx a can, now 10 bucks.
Something is not right.
Oldmike

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by mf15 R-134A Freon at walmart year or so ago $4.xx a can, now 10 bucks. Something is not right. Oldmike

Chemical costs are notoriously price-volatile. I would guess in this case, the huge back-log of ocean-shipping has a lot to do with such things as freon price.

[jldavid47]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolau Chemical costs are notoriously price-volatile. I would guess in this case, the huge back-log of ocean-shipping has a lot to do with such things as freon price.

Chlorine for our spa was $14 two years ago for 2 pounds, $24 last year and $30 this year. I bought 5 pounds of a different brand instead for $60 just to get the average cost back to 2022 levels.

[mf15]

Industrial chemist since 1972, actually worked in the industry since 1966. My guess, price gouging by everyone involved, they had tons of stock. My guess, they will do it until they can't. Yea, getting very cynical in my old age.
Oldmike

[GenXguy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Time2 But that's half the conversation at my weekly breakfast with the guys!

They should order eggs for breakfast.

[GenXguy]

There's another thread for posting those specific examples of current inflation:

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...rs-114205.html

[Mulligan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gumby From the Federal Reserve Bank of San Franscisco https://www.frbsf.org/education/publ...lation-causes/

The Fed and the public will have different opinions on inflation as consumers memories are longer, while Fed sticks with the current times. Exaggerated example…If we had 100% inflation one year, then 0% inflation the following year, Fed would consider inflation dead. While a consumer would disagree. As that scenario still stings the wallet even if that scenario showed a current 0% CPI.

[CaptTom]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulligan The Fed and the public will have different opinions on inflation as consumers memories are longer...

... and more reliable. Sorry if I just don't take word of a politician or pundit on everything.

Pointing to one small section of a wildly-swinging line on a chart is not necessarily a good way to discern a legitimate trend. But it can be used to deceive.

[Gumby]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulligan The Fed and the public will have different opinions on inflation as consumers memories are longer, while Fed sticks with the current times. Exaggerated example…If we had 100% inflation one year, then 0% inflation the following year, Fed would consider inflation dead. While a consumer would disagree. As that scenario still stings the wallet even if that scenario showed a current 0% CPI.

Inflation is not an opinion, it is math. Inflation = dx/dt where x is price and t is time. And since the Fed can affect my life a lot more than any consumer's opinion, I'll stick with the Fed.

[Mulligan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptTom ... and more reliable. Sorry if I just don't take word of a politician or pundit on everything. Pointing to one small section of a wildly-swinging line on a chart is not necessarily a good way to discern a legitimate trend. But it can be used to deceive.

Gumby was missing my point. Math is the math which is a given for the science of inflation. It is what it is definition wise. But consumers base inflation on how it hits their wallet. They really dont care about the proper terminology of inflation, disinflation, or deflation…..And they have a long memory of a price change. Something that went from $5 to $10 in one year and is $10 three years later will still be viewed as inflation to the consumer even though there has been no price increase the subsequent 3 years.
Its the old “I remember when gas was 60 cents a gallon thing”.

[GenXguy]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulligan Gumby was missing my point. Math is the math which is a given for the science of inflation. It is what it is definition wise. But consumers base inflation on how it hits their wallet. They really dont care about the proper terminology of inflation, disinflation, or deflation…..And they have a long memory of a price change. Something that went from $5 to $10 in one year and is $10 three years later will still be viewed as inflation to the consumer even though there has been no price increase the subsequent 3 years. Its the old “I remember when gas was 60 cents a gallon thing”.

Exactly, just like my comments about the massive price increases on most everything since early 2020. Disinflation doesn't make that any better, it just makes those prices even higher, because it's still positive inflation. We're not going to see those prices again for most things. We consumers feel that sting for years... or forever in some cases.

[Aerides]

Quote:

Originally Posted by GenXguy but that still doesn't mean that lower inflation means prices broadly are going down.

Of course it doesn't. By definition lower inflation means things are not going up as much. And going up 2-3% per year is totally normal, and should be expected in any retirement planning.